Khalil Herbert Player Props Pick for Commanders vs Bears

Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards

I realize that David Montgomery is back and that Khalil Herbert is back to his backup role. However, there are a couple reasons I like this prop tonight.

Firstly, the Bears have averaged the fewest plays per game this season. Considering this game is pretty much a pick'em, we should see their volume go way up.

Chicago will also be able to lean on the run game more. In the Bears' two wins this season, they've averaged 38.5 rushing attempts. An increase in overall rush attempts will give Herbert enough chances to clear this number.

Secondly, Herbert has been extremely efficient this season.

Herbert is averaging 5.9 yards per carry this season. According to NFL NextGenStats, he's the most efficient north-south runner in the league. That's especially important when you're in an offense with Justin Fields, whose scrambling ability has to be contained on the edges by opposing defenses.

I'm projecting Herbert for closer to 32 yards and like his upside in this market. I would bet this up to 28.5.

You also could wait until during the game for this total to get lower. I wouldn't expect him to get his first carry until around the middle of the first quarter.