Kirk Cousins Signing with Atlanta: How Good Can the Falcons Be?
(Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images) Pictured: Kirk Cousins
And just like that, the Kirk Cousins sweepstakes are over.
Not long into the legal tampering period, news broke that Cousins will sign with the Atlanta Falcons. He'll get $180 million over four years, with $100 million of that contract guaranteed.
The Falcons officially have their quarterback, their first franchise guy since Matt Ryan.
So what does it mean for Atlanta? Just how valuable is Cousins, and how far can he take the Falcons?
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Cousins Is Better Than You Think, But Still Not Good Enough
Cousins is an enigma.
He is constantly underrated by both fans and the media, but is also never quite good enough.
If you made a list ranking every NFL quarterback, without actually listing names out, how high would you instinctively put Cousins? I suspect many would call him the very definition of average and then rank him something like 15th or 20th.
Kirk Cousins is the ____th best QB in the NFL.
— Brandon Anderson (@wheatonbrando) March 11, 2024
The first problem is that those answers aren't compatible. There are 32 NFL teams, which by definition means a perfectly average quarterback would rank 16th or 17th, not 20th. The second problem is that all 32 teams don't have a clear starter. At any given time, something like 25-to-28 teams, at best, have a quarterback, which means an average quarterback is closer to 13th or 14th.
List all the quarterback and, if you're being fair, I think you may struggle to get to 13 or 14. Cousins is probably something like the 8th-to-12th best quarterback, and he has been for half a decade.
Don't believe me? You'll have to take it up with PFF. They graded Cousins as No. 9 this season. And over the past five seasons, they graded him ninth, ninth, sixth, 11th and sixth. That's an average ranking of 8.2 over half a decade.
Cousins didn't finish last season healthy, but was fantastic when he was on the field. He finished the year ranked fifth in EPA + CPOE, one of my favorite all-in-one quarterback metrics. The only quarterbacks ahead of him were Brock Purdy, Dak Prescott, Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa. Most seasons, the MVP ballot looks pretty close to the top of the EPA + CPOE leaderboard. Cousins was near the top of the league in yards when healthy this season and played like a fringe MVP candidate before his Achilles injury.
The Achilles certainly isn't nothing, especially since Cousins will turn 36 in August, but he'll have the better part of a calendar year to get healthy, and it's not like Cousins was particularly mobile, so the Achilles shouldn't be a major concern for his playing style.
How many quarterbacks are you confident will have better seasons this fall than Cousins? Can you come up with 10? I'm not sure you can. He's clearly ahead of guys like Geno Smith, Tagovailoa, Jared Goff and Derek Carr if healthy, and pretty competitive at this point to other older guys like Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers.
How many NFC quarterbacks are definitely better than Cousins? I'll give you Prescott, though I'm not sure the margin is that wide. Who else? Is Jalen Hurts definitely better? Stafford? Jordan Love or Purdy? Did the Falcons just sign a top-three NFC quarterback?
Cousins is 74-60-2 since becoming a starting NFL quarterback. He's never finished worse than 7-9 in nine seasons as a starter and has both a completion percentage of almost 68% and an interception rate under 2%. He's also averaged over a 4,500-yard pace during that near-decade stretch. That seems pretty good to me!
The problem in the NFL is that pretty good still falls woefully short of great, and that's Cousins' sweet spot — right in the vague area between those two adjectives.
Cousins is just 1-3 in the playoffs. One win ever. You need at least three wins for a Super Bowl ring. Usually four.
It's very valuable having the eighth-to-12th best quarterback in football. Just ask the 20 teams below that who would kill for above-average quarterback play.
But Cousins is not Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen or Joe Burrow. Nor is he Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud or Love. He doesn't have that "it" factor. He doesn't invite belief and hope.
He's good.
He's just not good enough.
So where does that leave the Falcons?
Cousins Is Massive Improvement for Atlanta
Remember how 20 teams would kill for above-average quarterback play?
Atlanta probably led the way in those murderous intentions last season after a disastrous year of "quarterback" play from Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke. The numbers aren't even worth getting into.
The Falcons had every opportunity to win an awful division. All they needed was even vaguely subpar quarterback play.
They didn't get it.
Now they have it and then some, assuming Cousins is healthy. Cousins is immediately the best quarterback in the division and Atlanta should be the clear NFC South favorite.
The Falcons were already the most intriguing team a quarterback away from a Super Bowl run. Cousins probably won't bring that trophy — despite the Falcons ridiculously dropping from +5000 a month ago to +2800 today to win it all — but he steps into one of the most quarterback-ready situations in the league.
It starts with an incredible set of weapons in Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts. All three were top-10 picks and are among the most talented in the league at running back, receiver and tight end. All three are also poised to see huge breakout years with the consistency they'll get from having a real quarterback run the show.
Atlanta also has one of the best offensive lines in the league. The Falcons didn't play like it this past season, but quarterbacks have a tendency to make offensive lines look better or worse than they actually are. Ridder and Heinicke made Atlanta's line much worse. Cousins will make it better.
The Falcons got as terrible quarterback play as any team in the NFL. When I replace that level of incompetence with Cousins in my positional rankings matrix — before even factoring in Atlanta's coaching changes or any other improvements — the Falcons offense jumps from 23rd to 10th. In other words, Cousins takes Atlanta from bottom 10 to top 10. Atlanta leaps from 24th to 14th overall.
Raheem Morris was my second-favorite coaching hire of this year's loaded cycle. He's ready for another chance and brings new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson with him. Robinson comes from the Sean McVay tree and played under Dana Holgorsen, so he has a ton of great offense to look back on. Also, that McVay tree should feel very familiar to Cousins after playing for Kevin O'Connell.
If you play fantasy football, get ready for some Falcons hype.
Robinson could have a huge year. Look at some of the stats Dalvin Cook put up with Cousins in Minnesota when healthy. Pitts should have a big year too, finally. Cousins loves targeting his tight ends and Pitts should finally be healthy after an MCL-impacted season. You can make a case that Pitts should be TE1 in dynasty leagues with Travis Kelce, George Kittle and Mark Andrews aging out.
And get ready for London's breakout. If you don't know, now you know.
London has been quietly prolific for the Falcons, considering their run-heavy offense and terrible quarterback play. He hasn't posted huge counting numbers, but he's been efficient with his opportunities.
London ranked 23rd among receivers in PFF grade this season after ranking 11th as a rookie. Cousins has consistently locked onto his top guy and peppered them with targets. London saw 117 and 110 targets over the past two seasons. He could see 50-to-75 additional targets this season.
I expect London to post a monster year. He could be a sleeper Offensive Player of the Year long shot and has a shot to return first-round fantasy value as a top-five fantasy receiver. He's worth a nibble at +10000.
Atlanta's offense should be very, very good.
The defense was better than expected this season and should be able to add talent in the draft.
Atlanta is headed strongly in the right direction. The Falcons will absolutely expect to make the NFC playoffs next season. In many ways, this feels like when the Saints added Carr last year. Carr never settled in and New Orleans was besieged by injuries, but Cousins is better than Carr, and the Saints nearly won the division anyway.
The $100 million guarantee suggests that the reported $180-million deal is probably just to win the press conference. This is a two-year deal for Cousins, three if things are going well.
And the way Cousins has played over the past decade, there's really no reason to think they won't.
Falcons fans, don't go too crazy.
Cousins isn't a quarterback with Super Bowl upside. Those sort of guys rarely — if ever — are available in free agency, but top-12 quarterbacks don't grow on trees.
Sit back, relax and enjoy the ride.
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