The Las Vegas Raiders (2-12) and Houston Texans (9-5) will face off in NFL Week 16. Kickoff is set for 4:25 p.m. ET from NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Texans are 14-point favorites over the Raiders on the spread (Texans -14), with the over/under set at 38 points. Houston is a -1200 favorite to win on the moneyline; Las Vegas is +750 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Raiders vs Texans prediction for today's Week 16 game.
Raiders vs Texans Prediction
- Raiders vs Texans pick: Raiders +14.5 (-115)
My Raiders vs Texans best bet is on Las Vegas to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Raiders vs Texans Odds
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -110 | 38 -110o / -110u | +750 |
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -110 | 38 -110o / -110u | -1200 |
Raiders vs Texans Week 16 Preview
This is the peak of the market for the Texans, who have won six straight games On the other side, we are getting the Raiders after a shutout loss in which they failed to reach 100 yards of total offense.
The Raiders have been blown out multiple times this year, but their response after those losses has been notable.
When they've lost by at least 17 points this season, the Raiders have immediately bounced back:
- Lost 25-24 to the Bears (following a 41-24 loss to the Commanders)
- Beat the Titans 20-10 (following a 40-6 loss to the Colts)
- Lost 30-29 to the Jaguars (following a 31-0 loss to the Chiefs)
- Lost 24-17 to the Broncos (following a 31-14 loss to the Chargers)
- Lost 24-10 to the Browns (following a 33-16 loss to the Cowboys)
Overall, the Raiders are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) after blowout losses this season.
The main reason for betting the Raiders is simple: the Raiders were shutout last week, and the Texans are suddenly hot after an uneven start to the season. Because of that, we are getting more than two touchdowns on this spread, and getting over two touchdowns creates value in almost any spot.
These are professional athletes. After getting embarrassed the way they did last week, the Raiders should come out with an inspired effort.
There are also several strong historical trends that support this position. Teams coming off a shutout have gone 74-55-5 ATS the following week. On the road, those teams are 32-18-2 ATS, covering at a 64% rate and by more than a field goal per game.
Road underdogs coming off a shutout loss have historically covered at around a 65% rate, by roughly four points per game.
One of my favorite trends also applies here: double-digit underdogs in back-to-back weeks after they failed to cover the first week. This happens because it has to be a really bad team, and no one wants to bet them again the second time, especially when they are facing another good opponent.
Because of that, the market often gives away an extra point or more. Over the past 25 years, teams in this spot are 50-25-1 ATS, covering at a 67% rate and by about four points per game.
Raiders vs Texans Prediction, Betting Analysis
There is a chance Kolton Miller returns for the Raiders, which would be massive. Without him, the offensive line cannot function.
Getting an elite left tackle back improves the entire operation, similar to how the Giants look completely different when Andrew Thomas is in the lineup. That alone could allow the Raiders to sustain a few more drives.
Houston is also dealing with injuries. Derek Stingley Jr. (oblique) is banged up again, and it would make sense to hold him out. Woody Marks (ankle) is also dealing with an injury. They have injuries in the backfield and started to lose interior defensive linemen, which has hurt their depth.
This is the bottom of the market on the Raiders though. They were shut out, finished with just 75 total yards, and could not have looked worse against the Eagles last week.
Meanwhile, the Texans have won six straight and are being priced at the top of their range.
That combination has pushed this number too far. Give me the Raiders +14.5 in a game that profiles as lower scoring than the market suggests.
Pick: Raiders +14.5 (-115)
Spread
My Texans vs Raiders betting prediction is on Las Vegas to cover the spread.
Moneyline
No play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm staying away from the total.
