We have reached the exact midpoint of the season, so it is time for my midseason NFL Power Rankings.
I am blending power rankings, which look backward to judge what has already happened on the field, with power ratings, which model what to expect going forward. Your résumé so far puts you in a specific tier, and how good we feel about you going forward dictates your ranking within that tier.
Let's dive into the rankings and the NFL futures value on the board.
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NFL Midseason Power Rankings
Tier IX – Gimme That No. 1 Pick
32. Titans | 31. Dolphins | 30. Chargers
The Chargers are the only winless team left and just gave up 5,000 points to the Texans. They finally broke a streak of 11 quarters and 37 possessions without an offensive touchdown. This is the worst offense in the league somehow, even with Justin Herbert. The defense is still solid, especially against the pass, but they are a fringe bottom 10 team in my power ratings. They will win a few games eventually.
The Titans are up next against Jacksonville, Dallas, and Jacksonville again. They could be 1-10 and just need to fire everyone. I am not sure Tennessee is good at anything in particular. Cam Ward has not done much. The Titans have possible remaining wins against Washington, Indy, and Vegas. They do not even need to try to tank.
The Dolphins are honestly having the perfect tank season. They hang around in almost every game — except against San Francisco — and rank 27th or better across all DVOA metrics. They are playing interesting games but still losing, so they are not messing up the tank. The coaching staff is good and they have some nice young players on both sides of the ball. They will hang around and steal a game or two.
Pick: Titans for Worst Regular Season Record (+280 at DraftKings)
Tier VIII – Shoot, Is It Too Late to Tank?
29. Cardinals | 28. Colts | 27. Eagles
It certainly feels like these three teams would prefer to lose every game left on their schedules.
The Cardinals are down to their third-string quarterback, third-string running back, and fourth-string wide receiver. The offense was supposed to be the good unit. Carson Beck is throwing to Simi Fehoko and Reggie Virgil this week. The Cards may not win another game despite a pretty soft late schedule.
The Colts traded Quenton Nelson, DeForest Buckner, Josh Downs, and Keenan Allen. There was no Jonathan Taylor trade, and apparently Daniel Jones was not available. Indy is not even terrible. They are actually worse — irrelevant. They cannot even tank properly because they do not own their first round pick.
The Eagles made no moves for Riq Woolen or Moro Ojomo, but they absolutely fleeced Jacksonville in the Jordan Davis deal. It looks like more of a soft reset for Philadelphia, but Howie Roseman knows how to execute a full tank.
Pick: Cardinals Under 4.5 Wins (+350 at DraftKings)
Tier VII – Check for a Pulse
26. Commanders | 25. Raiders | 24. Jets | 23. Saints | 22. Browns | 21. Ravens
The Jets might finally force me to give up betting on them, but they should have led Kansas City at the half in Week 9. They still seem more generic bad than terrible. The value here is on David Bailey for Defensive Rookie of the Year. He has 7.5 sacks and is on pace for 15. He leads the league with five forced fumbles on a record pace. Sacks and forced fumbles are the kingmaker for defensive awards.
The Commanders are 2-5-1. They actually sit at 20th in offensive and defensive DVOA. Jayden Daniels is not his usual self and has been a non-factor as a rusher. Their season is effectively over if they lose to the Giants, but 10-1 for the division still has some value.
The Browns' season felt like it effectively ended on that missed overtime two-point conversion, not to mention a bad beat under for the ages. The young offensive line is coming together, and the defense is pretty good. However, all five of their wins are by three or four points, and they got killed at Jacksonville and Pittsburgh. Cleveland profiles more like a 3-6 team.
The Raiders have allowed 30-plus points in six straight games. The defense just does not have the talent. That 3-0 start was came against Miami, the Chargers, and the Saints — not very impressive in hindsight. It is already Fernando Mendoza time in Las Vegas.
The Saints could easily be 1-7, but they stole wins against Baltimore and Cleveland. With Kelvin Banks and Jordyn Tyson back, they could lead the division outright with a win against Carolina. I am at least intrigued by New Orleans.
The Ravens are this low because their actual profile so far is terrible. They barely beat Dallas and Atlanta, lost to New Orleans and Cleveland, and have not scored 14 points since October 11.
Can Jacoby Brissett get them to 6-6? They close with four division games, including Pittsburgh twice. The division might be gone, but they can pass the Browns and Steelers.
Pick: David Bailey Defensive Rookie of the Year (+260 at BetRivers)
Pick: Raiders Under 7.5 Wins (+100 at FanDuel)
Pick: Ravens 3rd in Division (+240 at FanDuel) & 2nd in Division (+650 at FanDuel)
Tier VI – Worse Than It Seems
20. Panthers | 19. Giants | 18. Rams
The headliner in this group is the Rams. They went from preseason Super Bowl favorites to No. 18. They are grinding out ugly wins against Las Vegas, the Chargers, and Washington, but they look nothing like what was promised.
Myles Garrett finally returned, but Puka Nacua is heading to injured reserve and Davante Adams is out. The schedule is brutal with Kansas City, San Francisco, Dallas, and Seattle looming. It would be an accomplishment just to get to 7-6.
The Panthers have three wins — their best one against the Lions. They were underdogs at the Saints and have devastating cluster injuries on the offensive line and at cornerback. It feels like a mirage.
The Giants are 5-2-1. They looked awful against the Rams and had a weird win at Houston. They are competent under John Harbaugh and have a super soft schedule, which might be enough in that division. The defense is coming together with Abdul Carter and Arvell Reese, but the offense is still lacking. I do not feel great about Giants Island right now.
Pick: Rams 3rd in Division (-115 at FanDuel)
Pick: Browns, Raiders, Panthers to Miss Playoffs (-105 at FanDuel)
Tier V – Better Than It Seems
17. Falcons | 16. Bucs | 15. Cowboys | 14. Texans | 13. Seahawks
The Falcons have the only win over San Francisco, but suffered hideous losses to Carolina and Tampa Bay. The coaching feels lacking right now.
The Bucs are 3-6 but have climbed to No. 7 in DVOA. They are competitive in every single game with six one-score losses to teams over .500. They are doing this even with bad quarterback play. Tampa Bay is still by far the best division bet on the board.
The Cowboys put up 500 yards of offense against Indy. They dropped their neutral pass rate from 68% to 52% over the last three games, and it is working. Like Tampa Bay, Dallas is competitive in every loss and just super frustrating. The Cowboys are still a top-7 offense and clearly the most talented team in their division.
The Texans are the one team in this group that can actually do something in the playoffs. They demolished the Chargers with 485 yards of offense while C.J. Stroud threw for 384 yards and five touchdowns. The defense also forced 23 havoc plays, which is in the 100th percentile. I am treating them like they are 5-3.
The Seahawks defense has held four opponents to 10 or fewer points, including a dominant 20-3 win over Kansas City. However, they blew the Washington game and have quarterback issues with Drew Lock and Sam Darnold. The offensive ceiling is down, and they have work to do.
Pick: Bucs to Win NFC South (+170 at BetRivers)
Pick: Cowboys to Win NFC East (+240 at BetMGM)
Pick: Texans to Make Playoffs (+160 at DraftKings)
Tier IV – The Flawed AFC Playoff Field
12. Steelers | 11. Broncos | 10. Chiefs | 9. Patriots
Pittsburgh, Denver, and Kansas City all follow the exact same formula: play defense, run the ball, throw short passes, and hope to win close games late.
The Steelers have wins against Cooper Rush, Daniel Jones, Jalon Daniels, Tyler Shough, and Deshaun Watson. They are not winning comfortably even in these easy games. The media is buying it, but they are a paper tiger. The schedule flips from the softest in the league to the hardest right now. They could go from 6-2 to 7-6 very quickly.
The Broncos are 7-2, but all the wins are by one score and six of them required a comeback. The Chiefs killed Denver, but lost the rematch and got crushed in Seattle. It just feels like all three of these teams are mostly irrelevant come playoff time.
The Patriots have a really uneven profile after an ugly home loss to Green Bay. They beat up on bad teams, but struggle against real competition. They are missing both running backs and both offseason wide receiver acquisitions. At 5-4, the division is gone, and I am not positive this is a playoff team.
Pick: Steelers to Miss Playoffs (+255 at DraftKings)
Tier III – At Least One Championship Unit
8. Bengals | 7. Packers | 6. Vikings | 5. Lions
Joe Burrow is the MVP favorite after looking the part in Spain. He was in complete control with 271 yards and four touchdowns. He is the eighth player ever with 26 touchdowns over his first eight games, and five of the previous seven won MVP. Cincinnati's schedule is incredibly soft going forward.
The Vikings move back ahead of the Packers with the Kirk Cousins trade. The less we say about Minnesota's Monday Night Football offense against the Bills, the better. The offense should be average now with Cousins at quarterback while the defense remains elite.
The Packers had the only upset of Week 9 by smashing New England. Jordan Love is in the 99th percentile for EPA per play and chucking it down the field with a +26 CPOE. They are 6-3 but still last in the division, making them the ultimate swing team.
The Lions are a top-five team with a very soft schedule. New England in Germany is up next, followed by Tampa Bay and Chicago all in an 11-day stretch. I am still looking to invest in this team.
Tier II – Super Bowl or Bust
4. Bills | 3. Bears | 2. Jaguars
The Bills offense was not that impressive against Minnesota. The Vikings defense wore out after spending the majority of the game on the field. Buffalo will likely be 9-1 with the Jets and Miami next, but it still has plenty on the line with a tough stretch ahead.
The Bears had a wild Sunday night win against the Bucs, where they smoked them early and then held on despite five turnovers. That highlights the volatility of this team with Caleb Williams and the uneven defense. The Bears have the upside to win it all, but are volatile enough to miss the playoffs.
The Jaguars had a massive half-win swing when Baltimore lost Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley before their Thursday night game. Jacksonville is 6-2 and should be 9-2 heading into Chicago later in the season. After trading for Jessie Bates and Jordan Davis, the Jags are a clear top-10 offense and defense. They are the most balanced AFC contender right now.
Tier I – Should Be Treated Like the Clear Favorite
1. 49ers
The 49ers are a clear No. 1 in both power rankings and power ratings. They killed the healthy Rams, won in Seattle, and handed Denver its only multi-score loss — all of that despite massive injuries.
Nick Bosa and DeForest Buckner are back, and wide receivers Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel are trending in the right direction. They are in a tier alone in my power ratings.
The NFC North teams will beat up on each other, giving San Francisco a clear path to the top seed. FTN has them at 91% to win the division and 57% for the 1-seed. There is value all the way up if you like it.
Pick: 49ers for NFC 1 Seed (+105 at DraftKings)
Brandon Anderson's Futures Bets Placed This Week
- Titans for Worst Regular Season Record: +280 (DraftKings)
- Cardinals Under 4.5 Wins: +350 (DraftKings)
- David Bailey Defensive Rookie of the Year: +260 (BetRivers)
- Ravens 3rd in Division: +240 (FanDuel)
- Ravens 2nd in Division: +650 (FanDuel)
- Browns, Raiders, Panthers to Miss Playoffs: -105 (FanDuel)
- Rams 3rd in Division: -115 (FanDuel)
- 49ers for NFC 1 Seed: +105 (DraftKings)
