Lions vs Cowboys Picks: How to Bet Week 17 Showdown
Photo by Rey Del Rio/Getty Images. Pictured: Sam LaPorta.
Lions vs Cowboys Picks | NFL Week 17
Regular readers are familiar with my weekly column — How to Bet Every Game & Every Team — so let's run the format back for Saturday night football and find a Lions vs Cowboys pick for each side. Be sure to check out my picks for the rest of the NFL Week 17 slate in my column.
For now, let's get into my Lions vs Cowboys picks.
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What you need to know:
- Both teams are battling for NFC playoff positioning with an eye on the NFC 2-seed (at least) — this could end up being a playoff preview if things shake out right.
- By DVOA, the Cowboys rank sixth and the Lions rank seventh. Dallas sits top 10 by DVOA in all three phases — offense, defense and special teams — but the Lions actually rate as the better offense.
- First-down offense could be key when the Lions have the ball. Detroit ranks third by DVOA on first downs while Dallas' usually stout defense ranks 18th. If offensive coordinator Ben Johnson can keep Jared Goff comfortable, the Lions could hang around and steal this game.
How to bet the Lions: Sam LaPorta over 47.5 receiving yards (BetRivers)
Both defenses have been trending down lately. The Cowboys sits around league average over the last six weeks and teams are starting to really pick on some of their weaknesses.
The Cowboys rank bottom 10 by DVOA against tight ends, middle passes and deep balls. Ben Johnson is one of the league's smartest offensive coordinators and should build a game plan to attack these weak points.
LaPorta, who's enjoyed an outstanding rookie season with breakout games, thrives in the middle of the field. Expect lots of quick passes by Goff to get the ball out before the Cowboys' pass rush can get home. LaPorta has at least 47 yards in nine of 15 games this season (60%), and I think he ends up clearing 60.
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How to bet the Cowboys: Tease Dallas -6 to PK
The Cowboys have been far better at home this season, especially on offense where they rank fifth by DVOA compared to just 18th on the road. That sets up well for a nice get-right spot against a Detroit defense quickly moving in the wrong direction.
The Lions offense should do some damage and Dallas isn't playing well enough defensively to slam the back door shut. Rather than playing the full Cowboys line, this sets up as a nice Saturday night teaser leg. I like teasing the Bills or 49ers down below -7 as a second pick.
My thoughts: Bet Sam LaPorta over 47.5 receiving yards
This game has the highest total of the week, so we're expecting plenty of yards and scoring. LaPorta should have a big game against an opponent that's struggled covering tight ends. He's only had two games above 63 yards, so I'll probably skip the escalator and just try to cash the traditional over.
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