NFL Odds, Picks for Every Game, Every Team | How to Bet Week 17

Here's everything you need to know about NFL odds and picks for every game and every team as we preview how to bet NFL Week 17.

Regardless of your level of betting experience, this is the NFL preview for you. These bets are designed to give you something to cheer for, with the updated odds for every game and every team. This week, we've got one Saturday game featuring the Lions and Cowboys, a full 1 p.m. ET board on Sunday, and the normal Sunday Night Football picks and bets, capped by my full betting card at the bottom of this article.

So let's get to the odds and picks for Week 17!

NFL Odds, Picks for Every Game, Every Team | How to Bet Week 17

There's one trend we should talk about upfront, because it will come into play a lot. Books consistently overvalue teams facing must-win spots late in the season, when bettors are prone to assume teams playing for the playoffs will take care of business against inferior teams.

From Week 16 forward, teams with a 40-to-60% win rate facing an opponent 5-to-25% worse by win rate are an awful 52-104-6 ATS, covering just 33% of the time. Simply fading every one of those must-win teams would have resulted in a 28.3% ROI for bettors over the past two decades.

Seven teams fit the trend this week: the Broncos, Buccaneers, Chiefs, Colts, Falcons, Rams and Texans. Be very careful about betting on one of those teams in Week 17 — you're likely paying a premium.

One last note before we get to the updated odds and picks — some of these lines have moved a bit since we originally published bets on Thursday and Saturday. If you have questions, ask me on Twitter/X @wheatonbrando.

Dolphins vs Ravens Odds, Picks

• The injury report for this game remains a bit of a mess, but let's parse through it.
• We know Jaylen Waddle is out for Miami. Jalen Ramsey, Xavien Howard, and Jevon Holland are all questionable in the secondary but expected to play through in a huge game. Raheem Mostert is questionable but should play, though he could cede some snaps. Miami will be without all three starting interior offensive linemen, a potentially big issue against this aggressive Ravens defense.
• Baltimore's two big names are Kyle Hamilton and Zay Flowers, with both limited in practice this week. Hamilton has played through injury and looks likely to go, and he's a huge chess piece for Mike Macdonald. Flowers looks less likely, potentially leaving Baltimore's offense short on pass catchers with Mark Andrews already out.
• Despite all the attention on the quarterbacks, the run game could be key. Miami's run defense has been terrible against outside runs, but Baltimore prefers a power run game up the middle where the Dolphins are stout. Miami's offense is the opposite, with Mike McDaniel's versatile rushing attack's lowest frequency up the middle where Baltimore is best but terrific getting to the outside where the Ravens are vulnerable. Miami can win if it dictates run directionality both ways.
• This is the big one. On a loaded early Sunday slate with 10 games, this one stands out as the biggest game of the weekend and a potential AFC Championship preview between the two teams vying for the 1-seed. Baltimore is coming off a short week after its impressive win over San Francisco, and Miami was almost as impressive against Dallas. These were two of the top three teams in my Power Rankings this week. Baltimore ranks 2nd in DVOA the last six weeks, Miami ranks 3rd, and they're both top six on offense and defense. This is the good stuff.

As elite as the Ravens defense has been, Baltimore has been surprisingly average against WR1s, especially great ones. The Ravens rank only 16th against WR1s, and look at some of the lines posted by players somewhat similar to Tyreek Hill: Cooper Kupp 8/115 on 10 targets, Keenan Allen 14/106 on 16 targets, Amon-Ra St. Brown 13/102 on 19 targets.

Baltimore is having trouble keeping up with these smaller target machines, and Hill could be a target monster with Jaylen Waddle sidelined. Waddle has been limited or out three times this season. Tyreek Hill has averaged 9.7 catches on 13.3 targets in those games, way up from 7.0 receptions on 9.6 targets in the others. The yardage is actually higher with Waddle, and you never know when the long play will come — less likely against an elite defense here — but Miami is going to get Hill touches at any cost.

Hill has gone over this line in nine of 14 games (64%), including all three of those no-Waddle games, and we're getting plus money at FanDuel. If you want to ride the Tyreek escalator one more time, he's +320 for 10 or more catches at bet365 and +640 for at least 12 receptions at FanDuel.

Miami's pass defense has been vulnerable on short stuff and against tight ends, and this is a game where Baltimore could really miss Mark Andrews taking advantage of that, but Isaiah Likely is really starting to play big for the Ravens. He's had at least 40 receiving yards in four straight, setting the floor right at this line, and he's got more burst and ability to break a long one than Andrews too.

We don't know if Zay Flowers will play, but if he's out or even limited, Baltimore will need to find other targets, and the Ravens are low on options. I think Likely gets at least four or five catches, and if he does, he should clear this number with ease.

I badly want a side in this one, but I can so easily talk myself into each direction. Will Mike Macdonald bamboozle another Shanahan tree offense six days after shutting down San Francisco? He does a great job disguising coverages and throwing off the timing that makes Tua Tagovailoa so deadly.

Or will Miami see some of what San Francisco did successfully with this week's game tape and put it to use? Don't forget, the 49ers actually moved the ball well most of the game, outside of the glut of turnovers. I can't make up my mind, and that's a good sign to stay away.

I badly wanted to play Dolphins rushing overs and really think that run game is the key Miami advantage, especially with Baltimore's run defense possibly the one soft spot for either side in this game, but the Mostert injury puts me off there. I can't sit out a game so big, so gimme Tyreek Hill's receptions over, though I'll probably pass on the escalators this time against a great defense.

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Saints vs Buccaneers Odds, Picks

• The Buccaneers can clinch the division and a home playoff game with a win, but a Saints win keeps both teams, and possibly Atlanta, in play for the NFC South crown.
• These teams are headed in opposite directions. Over the past six weeks, the Bucs are top 12 by DVOA overall, on offense, and on defense, while the Saints' defense has taken a huge hit. New Orleans has dropped all the way into the 20s, even with a couple of big wins lately.
• Tampa Bay is one of those must-win teams to consider fading based upon the trend at the top. Baker Mayfield is only 13-25-1 ATS as a favorite, covering just 34% of the time.
• The Bucs rank as the second-luckiest team in our proprietary Luck Rankings, while the Saints sit as the second-least lucky team. That makes New Orleans a top recommendation by the Luck Rankings algorithm as some of those hidden factors could even out in a close game.

Neither offense is great, and both defenses should have the advantage. The Bucs' defense has been stout and leads the league on third downs, where the Saints struggle. New Orleans has slipped on defense, but mostly against the run, and Tampa can't run anyway, but the Saints still rank top 10 against the pass. This total is rising with some defensive injuries, but that means it crossed 40 and 41 and hit 43, all key numbers.

NFC South divisional games have been incredibly low scoring this season. Eight of the nine previous division games topped out at 39 points, well under this total. Also, Todd Bowles has had Pete Carmichael's number, with the Saints averaging just 16.7 PPG in the past six meetings between these rival. Additionally, these teams are a combined 19-11 to the under.

I like that the game is in Tampa. The Bucs' defense has been better at home (7th versus 16th on the road), while the offense has been much worse (24th versus 10th). That's led to a huge discrepancy in scoring with Tampa Bay's home games at 34.6 PPG and under this line in six of seven, compared to 48.5 PPG away from home.

Season-long metrics paint these teams as about even, but they've been heading in opposite directions for awhile. Tampa Bay has won four in a row and is playing its best ball of the season, nearly cracking the top 10 in my power rankings, while the Saints have faced the league's easiest schedule and still can't get to .500.

Stay away from a "win in a desperation spot" between two mediocre teams and just play the first half. The Saints have been far worse in the first half at 25th and 22nd on offense and defense versus 15th and 9th in the second half. New Orleans is 5-10 ATS in first halves while the Bucs are 10-5 ATS in first halves with the No. 5 DVOA defense.

The Saints are at their best in the fourth quarter and 10-5 ATS in the second half, so it could get tricky late. Stick to the first half.

I've been betting NFC South unders all season, so why stop now? These division games are ugly, and there are some division-agnostic trends that line up in favor of the under late in the season. Baker Mayfield is also 21-11 to the under (66%) in games with a total below 44, the second-most profitable quarterback in our system.

I like the under best, but I also like the Bucs. The line for this game basically rates these teams as equals and I don't see it that way, but I'm a bit spooked by the Luck Rankings and the trends above in favor of the Saints, so I'll just play the first-half trends. I'm playing these bets separately.

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Raiders vs Colts Odds, Picks

What you need to know:

• Believe it or not, the Raiders are still very live for the playoffs. Win twice and they could make the postseason or even win the division. The Colts are also live for the playoffs and the division, and in better shape than the Raiders, so this is one of the highest leverage games on the slate.
• We waited on injury news and ended up with a pretty good report, for the most part. Michael Pittman cleared concussion protocol and appears likely to play. Maxx Crosby will play through, and it looks like key Colts T Braden Smith will play opposite him. The one big name missing is Josh Jacobs.
• Indianapolis games have been higher scoring at home. The Colts offense plays much better there, ninth in DVOA versus 23rd on the road, while the defense has been worse at 21st versus 12th.

It's no coincidence that the Raiders are still alive for the postseason. Las Vegas is playing genuinely good football, especially on defense, where the Raiders are now eighth in DVOA on the season and all the way up to second the last six weeks, top five against both the run and the pass. Patrick Graham has his guys flying around the field, and that unit can wreak havoc on an inconsistent, beatable Colts offense.

Can the Raiders offense find any answers? The team has committed to the run under Pierce, and Zamir White has run well the last two weeks with Jacobs out. This could also be a good spot for Jakobi Meyers against a defense that's been terrible against WR2s.

The Colts are one of those must-win fade teams, and this is a prime spot. Teams that have won 40-to-60% of their games facing an opponent 5-to-25% worse from Week 16 forward are 52-104-6 ATS (33%), and it gets even worse if that team lost last week like Indy (21-55-2 ATS, 28%) or if the underdog won the week prior (12-34-3 ATS, 26%). Those trends say the Raiders are a very live dog.

Zack Moss is out for Indianapolis, so this will need to be the Jonathan Taylor show. Even as the Raiders have improved dramatically in defense, it's the pass defense that has been elite while the run defense has still been spotty at times and leaked big fantasy points to opposing running backs.

We know Taylor has a nose for the end zone, and it's rare to get a number so close to even odds for a Taylor TD. He's scored in four straight games and has found pay dirt in eight of his last 10 games in which he's played at least half of the snaps. Be sure to grab this number at Caesars if possible, since it's -118 there versus -150 to -160 at most other books.

My initial lean here on the matchup was the under, but the total has moved in that direction and some of the Colts trends this season pushed me away from playing a total.

Instead, I'm riding with the Raiders. This is a really strong trends spot suggesting the Colts are overvalued, and getting this line above the key number is huge since the Colts have failed to cover -4 in three of their eight wins. In my futures angles this week, I noted that the Raiders have massive value at +1200 to make the playoffs and +12500 to win the AFC West. It has to start with a win here.

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Falcons vs Bears Odds, Picks

• The Falcons are the team still in playoff contention, but the Bears actually rank better on offense, defense and special teams by DVOA for the full season.
• Chicago has been playing great football of late — even bordering on elite football over the past six games. The Bears lead the league in Passing Defensive DVOA during that span and sit 3rd in Defense and 5th overall since Week 11, playing like one of the best teams in the league.
• Weather could be a factor in Chicago, with temperatures near freezing and winds around 12-to-15 mph expected on a blustery winter day in the Windy City.

Slowly but surely, Arthur Smith is starting to remember he has a top-10 draft pick tight end on his roster. Kyle Pitts has found the endzone in two of the past three games and his average is all the way up to 47 YPG over the past four. It's not much, but it's baby steps, and Pitts has gone over this line in all four.

Chicago has allowed 95 tight end catches on the season, the third most of any team, and Pitts has at least two catches in every game. Atlanta's passing game has been much more efficient of late, and Taylor Heinicke is a boost too. This won't be fun — is it ever in Smith's offense? — but this line is just too low.

Exactly what are the Falcons better at? Atlanta is built to run the football, but Chicago ranks 10th in Rushing DVOA while Atlanta is 21st. The Falcons are built to stop the run, but the Bears rate better at that too. The Bears are the better team and have been since the start of October with the gap only widening lately as Chicago cracks top five in DVOA over the past six weeks.

Chicago should have a real home-field advantage too. The Falcons have been awful on the road (2-5), including losses to the Titans, Cardinals and Panthers, with the offense averaging under 14 PPG. Chicago has won four in a row at home and scored over 25 PPG in those contests, and the Bears' offense has been far better at home than on the road this season.

The NFC South is an ugly 16-26 ATS (38%) in non-division games, and Atlanta is 2-8 ATS itself. The Falcons also fit that trend of fading teams in must-win situations. Teams with a 40-to-60% win rate that are 5-to-25% above their opponent are 52-105-6 ATS (33%) in Week 16 or later, and it's even worse (12-34-3 ATS, 26%) if they won last week, like Atlanta did. This line is giving the Falcons too much respect for beating a blah Colts team last week. The Falcons stink.

This is my favorite side of the week. It was stuck right at the key number all week, but you can snag a Bears -2.5 ticket at some books. Grab -2.5 if you can, but I'm happy to play Bears -3 if needed and expect Chicago to win with relative ease as the much better team playing good ball at home.

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Titans vs Texans Odds, Picks

• Both rookie QBs return, as C.J. Stroud was finally cleared from concussion protocol and Will Levis looks good to go too. The rest of the injury report is a bit murkier, but it looks like Will Anderson, Sheldon Rankins, and Steven Nelson could all go for the Texans defense in a desperation spot.
• These rivals have split the series in six of seven seasons, and the road team has won five of the last six. That could be good news for Tennessee since the Texans won the first game, though Houston is 7-2 ATS at home against the Titans since 2014, covering by 9.4 PPG. These teams have played eight one-score games in their last 11, so recent history suggests this will be close and competitive.

The Texans haven't rated any better than the Titans over the past six weeks, and Houston's passing offense has cratered while Tennessee's has actually been above league average. This line is still giving the Texans credit for what they were earlier in the season, but Houston hasn't won by more than five since before the bye week, and Tennessee has covered +4.5 in five straight games and 10 of 15 on the season.

The Texans are another one of those must-win fades, and this line is giving Houston a little too much credit for a team that might just not be in there anymore. Tennessee is better in the first half and could hang early, and Mike Vrabel is 24-13-2 ATS (65%) as an underdog of three or more points. The Titans have been feisty and are playing hard week after week, and they'd love to end their division rivals' season.

The last time we saw Stroud was the worst game of his professional career by far, playing injured against the Jets, but Houston has been cautious with its franchise QB, and this is an awesome spot for Stroud to step back into. Tennessee's defense is a pass funnel, selling out to stop the run and paying the price by letting opposing QBs attack a weak secondary.

Stroud was absolutely balling before that Jets game, averaging 348 YPG in the five previous games, way up from 257 YPG before that. Houston had taken the training wheels off and turned things over to the rookie, and I expect that to continue here. Stroud was a threat to lead the league in yardage before his injury. This line is just too low. He's gone over it in eight of 12 healthy games, and he's thrown for 300 in half of them, so that +235 line looks pretty juicy too.

Regular readers know I've been on Texans Island since before the season, but I strongly considered betting the Titans here. The line is just too high, Vrabel is dangerous as a dog, and Houston's bubble might've burst a few weeks ago. But that Vrabel underdog stat is only 2-4-1 ATS this year, and the Titans defense is way worse on the road and in the second half, so this sets up for more late Texans heroics.

I'm choosing to believe one more time, and I'll throw my belief onto the guy who's carried the team all season. The Titans allow 246 YPG to passers and haven't exactly faced a murderer's row of QBs. I'm trusting Stroud to return healthy and hungry. His yards line was 273.5 the week before the injury, and that's closer to what I think it should be. I'll play over 257.5 and put a good portion of my bet on 300+ yards at +235. You might even sprinkle 350+ at +750, since he's done that in one third of his healthy games.

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Rams vs Giants Odds, Picks

• The Rams offense is absolutely rolling and ranks second in DVOA over the past six games. Los Angeles is 5-1 during that stretch and has scored at least 28 points in five straight, but be careful — teams that have scored 25+ in at least five straight are just 42% ATS.
• The Rams are in great position to make the playoffs, but will want to get this one with a daunting trip to San Francisco in the finale. The Giants are just playing spoiler, but have hung around lately, and the Rams fit that must-win trend we're being careful with. Brian Daboll is 10-5 ATS after a loss.

I've been riding the Rams for a few weeks, but books have finally caught up to how well LA is playing, so I'll pivot from a side and play a prop instead. The Giants' defense has been playing relatively well and Wink Martindale's aggressive pass rush could give Matt Stafford and this porous offensive line some issues in a blustery outdoor setting.

What's the best way to put a pass rush on its heels? A great rushing attack, of course!

The Giants rank 27th against the run by DVOA, and Sean McVay's offense is at its best when the run game is featured and cooking. The Rams run the ball better up the middle than any team in football, which should mean another big game for Kyren Williams.

Williams has had at least 88 rushing yards in six straight and is averaging 21.8 rushes for 131 yards during that stretch — he probably would've won the rushing crown if not for that midseason injury. This is the highest rushing yards prop of the week, but it should be even higher.

The Rams' defense, especially the run defense, is playing better lately and it's not like you need me to tell you just how terrible the Giants' offense has been. Tyrod Taylor was a nice spark, but he's not going to magically fix the poor blocking or dearth of receiving options.

New York's defense has been far better at home, so the best hope for the Giants is an ugly, low-scoring game in windy, wintery conditions. The total for this game has risen from 41 to 44.5 because the Rams' offense is scoring so much, but that's pushed the Giants' team total too high. New York has scored 17 or less in 11 of 15 games (73%), including all but one of its losses. Unless you expect the Giants to steal the win, New York probably goes under this number.

This game looks like Escalator City for Kyren Williams. He's -155 to score a touchdown and has done so in eight of 11 games. He has also scored multiple touchdowns four times, implying some value on his +410 odds to do that (both FanDuel).

I'll play the traditional rushing yards line, but will also look at escalators like 150 rushing yards or 100 yards and a touchdown combined. I think the Rams get the win with Williams at the heart of things.

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Patriots vs Bills Odds, Picks

• Buffalo is still live for the AFC East and even the AFC 2-seed and is around 90% to make the playoffs after being closer to 10% as recently as a month ago.
• The Bills lost to the Patriots earlier this season, but have dominated this division rivalry otherwise, winning four straight by 12 points and six of the past seven, with Buffalo scoring 35, 24, 47, 33 and 38 in wins.
• Expect winter conditions in Buffalo, with temperatures hovering around freezing and winds possibly pushing double digits, and there's always the threat of sleet or snow in Buffalo in December.

For better or worse, New England is still trying hard under Bill Belichick, and that means the defense should still show up. The Patriots' defense has been better on the road, 6th by DVOA versus 17th at home, and Buffalo's defense has been better at home. Even if this game isn't super competitive, it's probably not going to see a huge Bills score in December conditions with a huge game against the Dolphins waiting next week.

Buffalo's run defense has been inconsistent, and the Patriots run often so that sets up the usual Belichick underdog script. That should keep the clock moving and help the under.

There's little reason to expect anything other than a Bills win, and Buffalo typically wins big when it does get the W, but this is a great opportunity to tease Buffalo past -10, -7, and even -6 and cross off some key numbers.

Buffalo's pass rush should wreak havoc on New England's poor pass blocking, and the Bills also have an extra day of rest and already got their clunker out of the way with their scare against the Chargers last week. Buffalo is better, by margin. Just trust the Bills to win by a touchdown.

I don't need anything on this one. I've got plenty invested in Buffalo and Josh Allen futures, so here's to an easy Bills win and a more interesting game against the Dolphins next week.

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Panthers vs Jaguars Odds, Picks

• Trevor Lawrence will officially miss his first game as a pro, which means C.J. Beathard will start for Jacksonville and try to end the Jaguars' four-game losing streak.
• Despite the ice-cold December, Jacksonville still controls its destiny in the AFC South. Win twice and the Jags host a playoff game. Lose even once and they might miss the postseason altogether.
• Home cooking for Jacksonville? Not so much. The Jaguars rank 21st on offense and 20th on defense at home compared to 12th and fifth away from Jacksonville.

Are we positive the Jaguars are even better than the Panthers right now? Carolina has played hard, either winning or losing by one score in six of nine games since the bye, and Bryce Young and the offense are starting to find some juice. Jacksonville has only covered -4.5 once in seven games since its bye, and a once-dominant defense has cratered and ranks bottom 10 in DVOA over the last six weeks.

Brian Burns and the Panthers pass rush can beat this bad, banged-up Jaguars line, and C.J. Beathard is an awful 2-10 SU as an NFL starter — and remember, that was all under QB magician Kyle Shanahan, and it includes 0-3 when he was anything better than a three-point underdog. Should Beathard be favored here? What are the Jaguars even good at without Trevor Lawrence?

Carolina has ranked near the bottom of the league in defensive rushing DVOA pretty consistently all season, and Travis Etienne has been a workhorse. He's also been a real bellwether of Jacksonville success. Etienne has at least 52 rushing yards in all eight Jaguars wins, but when he fails to crack 50 on the ground, Jacksonville has only one win in seven tries.

The Jaguars have been extremely inefficient running the ball, worst in the league up the middle by DVOA, but Etienne can get some chunk yardage if he gets outside. If Jacksonville is going to win with Beathard and a struggling defense, it'll have to be Etienne. I'm not sold on him going over the traditional 60.5 line — he was in the 50s in five of those wins — so this is a good way to create a correlated SGP for a Jags win.

Carolina has nothing to lose with no need to protect its projected top pick. I smell an upset. Gimme that +185 ML too and let's have some fun.

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Cardinals vs Eagles Odds, Picks

• Kyler Murray was a midseason addition to the injury report and missed a couple days of practice, but he did get some limited reps in late and is expected to play. He'll be missing his top receiver with Marquise Brown on IR, and Philadelphia will be without the corner that would've covered him with Darius Slay out.
• The Cardinals defense is terrible. Arizona ranks bottom two against both the run and the pass and dead last by DVOA on that side of the ball. The Cards rank last against deep passes and bottom three against outside passes, so that could mean a huge game for Jalen Hurts if he can find A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith down the field.

Last year's Eagles would've run the ball 45 times and led this game by 24 at the half, but this year's Eagles haven't done that. Philadelphia's offense has not been great, and the defense has gotten worse and worse as the season has progressed. The Eagles are 26th in Defensive DVOA the last six weeks, including bottom five against the run, while the Cardinals have been a top five rushing offense with James Conner healthy.

I have a lot of concerns for the Eagles in this game. Everything lines up for an underdog script. Philadelphia is much worse in the first half on both sides of the ball, so that sets up Arizona to hang around early. You know Jonathan Gannon would love to get a result against his old team that effectively buried him upon leaving for the Cardinals. I think Arizona wants this one.

Arizona's run defense can't stop a nosebleed. The Cardinals rank dead last in DVOA against middle runs and allow more runs up the middle than any opponent. That's a devastating combination, and it's one last year's Eagles would've exploited with an endless barrage of runs right up the middle.

That's Swift's role on this team, and he's averaged 17.0 rushing attempts in Eagles wins (not counting the season opener, when he was buried on the depth chart) with at least 14 rushing attempts in all but one. If you think the Eagles win, they probably got there by running the ball and then keeping the lead by continuing to feed Swift. Play yards or a TD if you prefer, but I'll stick with just the predictable rushing attempts.

Kyler Murray is 23-14-2 ATS as a dog (62%), and this also sets up as a big Trey McBride game. He's been Murray's go-to target, averaging 7.3 catches for 76 yards, and the Eagles have been awful against tight ends.

Philadelphia's defense is bad enough to leave the back door open all game. The Eagles have only covered a spread this big twice all season. If you want to sprinkle the +525 moneyline for a shocking upset, I sure won't stop you.

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49ers vs Commanders Odds, Picks

• Washington benched Sam Howell for Jacoby Brissett, only for Brissett to pick up a hamstring injury in practice, so we don't know which QB we'll get. It does look like San Francisco will be mostly healthy, with both Brock Purdy and Trent Williams notably returning after Monday night's injuries.
• The Commanders rank 31st in Defensive DVOA and 32nd against the pass, and those numbers actually flatter Washington somewhat since the defense has gotten even worse since trading away Chase Young and Montez Sweat.
• Ron Rivera will drop to .500 lifetime as a head coach with a loss. He's coached 14 seasons and has a winning record in only three of them. Ron Rivera still has a job. Make it make sense.

If you just want to bet the 49ers to shred this awful Commanders defense, I certainly won't stop you. San Francisco covers this huge spread in most of its wins anyway. I prefer the 49ers over 31.5 since they've scored 27 or more in every win and Washington has allowed 28+ in 11 games already. But this feels like a sleepy go-through-the-motions-and-stay-healthy game to me, so I'll go with the revenge angle instead.

There's no statistical case for Young here. He's only gone over this once as a 49er. But revenge is a powerful drug, and this only gets better if Howell ends up starting since he's a walking sack machine. Young wanted out of Washington, and now he's on the Super Bowl favorite. A sack would be a great way to celebrate.

If you're looking for a rational case to bet the Washington football team, I don't have one. The Commanders stink. They might be the least interesting team in football.

But trends suggest this is just too long a number. Home underdogs of 10-to-14 points are 66-45-1 ATS the last two decades (59%), and home double-digit dogs in December or later are 38-20-1 ATS, covering almost two-thirds of the time (66%). There are also trends backing Washington as a team that's allowed 28+ in at five straight and gotten crushed over that span, suggesting a bounce-back spot.

For whatever reason, Kyle Shanahan has not fared well against backup QBs. It's a bit tricky to define what counts as a backup, but I have Shanahan at just 6-10 ATS lifetime (38%) against backup QBs. Play the letdown spot and the long number.

I'm not interested in this game. Maybe the 49ers sleepwalk through a boring but close win, or maybe they drop 50 on this hapless defense. I don't care to wager a guess.

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Bengals vs Chiefs Odds, Picks

• Patrick Mahomes has a losing record (2-3) against the Bengals. There will be no Burrowhead with Joe Burrow sidelined, but Cincinnati is still pushing for the playoffs and will want to keep its aura alive against a Chiefs team it's pushed all the way.
• Ja'Marr Chase remains in doubt and looks unlikely to play. Kansas City could be without Isaiah Pacheco after another injury, and LT Donovan Smith is also a question mark.
• Weather looks like a factor, with cold temperatures near freezing and winds of at least 10 mph, so that could make downfield passing difficult.

These teams have played four straight field-goal games, and though there's no Burrow or Chase, this isn't exactly the Chiefs of old. Mahomes and crew struggled to show up against even the Patriots and Raiders, and the Chiefs are especially mediocre offensively in the fourth quarter (18th by DVOA), when the Bengals' defense has been at its best.

The Bengals can hang, in part because they can win the early downs. Cincinnati ranks top eight in DVOA on first and second down, where the Chiefs' defense has been mostly average. Also, the Chiefs' offense has been average on early downs where Cincinnati is better. The Chiefs will have a huge advantage on third downs both ways, but it's better to have the early-down advantage and stay ahead of the script.

Chiefs games have been lower scoring at home, and the weather and injuries also suggest a low-scoring game. That makes 7.5 points a lot, and the Chiefs have only covered this line six times all year. Jake Browning had a clunker last week, but the Bengals will come into Arrowhead believing they can win.

This is the ultimate buy-low spot for the Chiefs' offense, against a Bengals' defense that's been bad all year. For an offense struggling to move the chains, why not turn to its best weapon and hope to Shake It Off?

Cincinnati has been terrible against tight ends all season. The Bengals rank 31st against TEs by DVOA and have allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends. Cincinnati has allowed 98 TE catches for 1,020 yards, both top two and an average of 6.5 catches for 68 yards. Just look at some of the lines put up against Cincinnati by opposing TEs: George Kittle 9/149, Dalton Kincaid 10/81, Dalton Schultz 4/71, Pat Freiermuth 9/120, Evan Engram 9/82, T.J. Hockenson 6/63 — and that's all since Week 8!

This is effectively a playoff game, and Kelce had 10/95 and 7/78 against the Bengals in the past two playoffs with a score in both games. He's clearly not what he once was, but it's rare to get a Kelce line in the 50s, so we have to take advantage. Bad weather and potentially no Pacheco or Smith can only help, pushing Mahomes to find his security blanket in a huge game.

I have to buy the dip on a Kelce line we haven't seen for years. Even in a bad year by his standards, and one besieged by injuries, Kelce still has at least 58 yards in nine of 14 games (64%). This is my favorite prop of the week, and I may end up investing in some Kelce escalators, especially receptions.

But I also really like the Bengals here. The Chiefs are one of those must-win fade teams, and that trend is even stronger if the team lost last week like the Chiefs did, with those teams going 21-55-2 ATS (28%). Road teams coming off a loss by 24+ are 68-32-2 ATS (68%) over the past decade.

I'm just not sure the Bengals are much worse than the Chiefs right now, even without Burrow and Chase, and 7.5 points is a lot in this rivalry. I'm playing the Bengals to cover, and given the way Kansas City has struggled closing out games, I have to sprinkle the +270 moneyline too.

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Steelers vs Seahawks Odds, Picks

• This is one of the highest-leverage games of the week, with most of the league tuned in hoping for a loss for the wild-card contender in their conference.
• Both teams are rated relatively equal, with Pittsburgh 11th in DVOA and Seattle 14th, but those rankings flipped with Seattle slightly in the lead over the past six weeks.
• There's possible rain in the forecast, so that could slop the game up a bit and make scoring harder to come by.

The Steelers are an underdog yet again, so is this another Rah Rah Mike Tomlin spot? No, not really. Rah Rah was never dead — it's just cited blindly too often without context. The Tomlin underdog trend is much stronger at home, in division games, and after a big loss, none of which is the case here.

But I wondered what it looks like the game after the game. When Tomlin's Steelers cover as an underdog in a Rah Rah spot and are anything short of a 3.5-point favorite the following week, they're 19-7-2 ATS, covering 73% of the time. History says books are still underrating the Steelers even after a prove-'em-wrong win, and Mason Rudolph is 5-1 ATS as a starter.

Seattle's defense has been much worse at home, and Pittsburgh's improved rushing attack should have some success, probably right up the middle where the Seahawks are at their worst. Even with Seattle winning games lately, they're doing it late and not covering this number. Take the points and the hook.

Pittsburgh's run defense has been stout, but the pass defense is shaky and has struggled against outside receivers in one-on-one matchups. That sets up well for Seattle since Geno Smith loves to give his guys a shot downfield. The Steelers' defense has held up well enough against WR1s on the season, but has struggled against WR2 and WR3, so this could be a Lockett game.

Lockett is coming off one of this best games of the season with eight catches for 81 yards on a season-high 11 targets, and he's gone over this line in eight of 15 games. Five of those overs saw at least 81 yards, and Pittsburgh also struggles against deep passes, so you might also consider eschewing the traditional line and playing 75+ yards at +210.

Some games just seem priced about right, and that's how I'm feeling here. I don't have a strong play on either side, and both of these teams have been unpredictable. In a game with so much on the line, I'll sit out and watch like the rest of the NFL.

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Chargers vs Broncos Odds, Picks

• Russell Wilson has been benched. Denver stole the headlines this week and pulled the plug on Russ, paving the way for the team to move on and turning over the reins to Jarrett Stidham at QB. He'll face Easton Stick making his third start at QB for the Chargers.
• If you're hoping for good receiver play, this may not be the game for you. Keenan Allen and Joshua Palmer are out for the Chargers, joining Mike Williams already sidelined. Courtland Sutton is out for the Broncos, while Jerry Jeudy and Marvin Mims are both questionable. Joey Bosa is among other names missing for Los Angeles.
• The home team had won seven straight in this divisional rivalry until the Broncos won in LA in December. Eight of the last 13 matchups finished within one score, with five of the last eight within a field goal. Hope you're ready for weird.

I mean, honestly, how many other Chargers can you actually name that will be on the field for this offense? Ekeler has had a lost season but was a touchdown machine in recent years. Even in this terrible campaign, he's found the endzone in five of his 12 games, nearly half of them (42%).

Denver's defense has been gashed by running backs all season, and the Broncos sport a terrible run defense, even as the team has improved. Ekeler has to be about as likely as anyone to score in this game, and at +175 and implied 36% to do so, the odds are in our favor.

Last week, the Chargers got the dead cat bounce when they fired their coach and jumped out to a 10-0 lead over Buffalo early. Could Denver see the same sort of reaction after finally moving on from Russell Wilson?

The Broncos are clearly the better team here. Denver ranks in the top half of the league on both offense and defense by DVOA over the past six weeks, and the Chargers are bad at basically everything now that Herbert and Allen are hurt. Denver has run the ball well recently, and the offense has been better at home.

Still, the Broncos have failed to cover the -3.5 line in four of their seven wins, and Denver is one of those must-win fades, so this line smells fishy, as wonky as this rivalry goes. The Broncos actually rank 5th in DVOA on both offense and defense in just the first quarter. Play the dead Russ bounce for an early bump and get outta there.

This game is pretty close to a dead rubber, and I'm just not interested or confident in either one of these teams, especially with the coaching change in LA and the QB change in Denver. This line seems way too low for Denver, and anytime a pick looks that easy, it probably is. Pass.

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Packers vs Vikings Odds, Picks

• Rookie QB Jaren Hall gets the start for the Vikings. He technically started one game earlier this year, but left injured very early, so this is effectively a debut in a huge game that acts as an elimination game for two teams on the wrong edge of the NFC wild-card race.
• As historic as this division rivalry is, it actually hasn't been super close of late. The teams did split the games the past three years, but the Packers won only one of seven before that, and the Vikings had one win in 12 before that. Additionally, six of the past eight meetings were not one-score games. If you feel good about a side, consider an alternate line like Packers or Vikings -7.
• Jaire Alexander and Justin Jefferson have had a fun personal rivalry in recent meetings with plenty of trash talk, but Alexander will miss this matchup after being suspended for his involvement in that goofy coin flip incident. Minnesota will be without T.J. Hockenson and possibly Jordan Addison, so it will be interesting to see how a shorthanded Packers secondary attempts to cover Jefferson.

Minnesota's defense has been a revelation this season under Brian Flores, but the Vikings defense has faded as teams adjust. It's also beatable by good QBs and offensive systems, and the Packers have proven they have both of those things, now top 10 offensively by DVOA on the season, including fourth passing.

The Packers are near the top of the league in Pass Block Win Rate, and if those Flores blitzes can't get home, the Vikings have proven weak on short and middle passes and don't have the personnel to keep up with Jordan Love if he's getting his throws off.

Green Bay's defense has been atrocious, especially against the run, but Minnesota's offense isn't built to take advantage of that. The Vikings can't run the ball, and a rookie fourth-string QB missing two of his top three weapons isn't going to pick apart even Joe Barry's schemes.

Matt LaFleur is 19-9 ATS (68%) as an underdog, and a number of late-season divisional-game trends line up in Green Bay's favor too. Trust LaFleur and Love's offense, and trust that Minnesota can't take advantage of the bad defense. Green Bay -7 is +275 at bet365 if you want to be aggressive.

We really have no idea what to expect from Jaren Hall at this point, but if you were a rookie QB effectively debuting in an elimination game without two of your top three weapons, don't you think you'd just pepper the one guy you have left, especially if he's the best receiver in the league?

Jefferson has had some of the quietest games of his career against the Packers, typically because Jaire Alexander helped shut him down. His games of 2/26, 3/26, and 1/15 against the Packers are three of his six lowest yardage totals in his career. But Jefferson also has two of his six best games against Green Bay, at 9/184 and 8/169 with two scores in each, shredding Joe Barry's defense mercilessly all game.

The Packers rank 30th against the pass and overall defensively by DVOA, and Minnesota is out of options other than just letting its best player go create enough offense all on his own. Jefferson is averaging 102.9 yards per game, and he's gone over this line in six of eight games (75%). He's had at least 141 yards in half of his games on the season, so +1200 to hit 150 yards at bet365 is patently insane, an absolute must-play.

As a Vikings fan, I can't think of a better way than to end 2023 watching my Vikings beat the hated Packers and knock them out of the playoffs. I'll root for them to do so, but I don't need anything more on a side with my emotions already on the line heading into the New Year's Eve countdown — and a matchup that sure looks like it favors Green Bay.

But you better believe I'm playing these terrible Jefferson lines. We've routinely seen Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb with lines around 100 yards all season. I know it's Jaren Hall, but I'm pretty sure Jefferson will make sure his rookie QB knows to look for No. 18. Give me the over and let's ride the escalator to 150+ at +1200 too.

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• Bears -2.5
• Saints/Bucs under 43
• Bucs 1H -1
• Kyren Williams over 90.5 rushing yards & escalators
• Justin Jefferson over 72.5 receiving yards | 150+ yards (+1200)
• C.J. Stroud over 257.5 passing yards & escalators
• Tyreek Hill over 7.5 receptions
• Travis Kelce over 59.5 receiving yards
• Bengals +7.5 & sprinkle Cincinnati ML +270
• Raiders +4 & sprinkle Raiders futures
• Cardinals +12 & sprinkle Arizona ML +525
• Panthers +4.5 & sprinkle Carolina ML +185
• Sam LaPorta over 47.5 receiving yards

Games Completed

Lions vs Cowboys Odds, Picks

• Both teams are battling for NFC playoff positioning with an eye on at least the NFC 2-seed, and this could end up being a playoff preview if things shake out right.
• By DVOA, the Cowboys rank 6th and the Lions rank 7th. Dallas sits top 10 by DVOA in all three phases — offense, defense and special teams — but the Lions actually rate as the better offense.
• First down offense could be key when the Lions have the ball. Detroit ranks 3rd by DVOA on first downs, while Dallas' usually stout defense ranks 18th. If Ben Johnson's offense can keep Jared Goff comfortable, the Lions could hang around and steal this one.

Both defenses are trending down lately. The Cowboys' defense sits around league average over the past six weeks, and teams are starting to really pick on some of Dallas' weaknesses. The Cowboys rank bottom 10 by DVOA against tight ends, middle passes and on deep balls, and Ben Johnson is one of the league's smartest offensive coordinators and should build a game plan to attack Dallas where it's weakest.

LaPorta has had an outstanding rookie season with some really big games, and he thrives in that middle of the field — where Dallas' defense is weakest. Expect lots of quick passes to get the ball out before the Cowboys' pass rush can get home. LaPorta has at least 47 yards in nine of 15 games this season (60%), and I think he ends up clearing 60 and could be in for a big game on Saturday night.

The Cowboys have been far better at home this season, especially on offense where they rank 5th by DVOA compared to just 18th on the road. That sets up well for a nice get-right spot for Dallas' offense, which a facing a Detroit defense that's quickly moving in the wrong direction.

The Lions' offense should do some damage and Dallas isn't playing well enough defensively to slam the back door shut. Rather than playing the full Cowboys line, this sets up as a nice Saturday night teaser leg to start out your weekend. I like teasing the Bills or 49ers down below -7 as a second pick.

This game has the highest total of the week, so we're expecting plenty of yards and scoring. LaPorta should have a big game against an opponent that's struggled covering tight ends. He's only had two games above 63 yards, so I'll probably skip the escalator and just try to cash this traditional over.

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