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The Los Angeles Chargers (0-2) and Buffalo Bills (2-0) will meet in NFL Week 3. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Bills are 7-point favorites over the Chargers on the spread (Bills -7), with the over/under set at 50.5 total points. Buffalo is a -350 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Los Angeles is listed as a +271 underdog.
Let's get into my Chargers vs Bills predictions for this intriguing Week 3 AFC showdown.
Chargers vs Bills Prediction
- Chargers vs Bills pick: Chargers +7.5
My Chargers vs. Bills best bet is on Los Angeles to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page, also download our Action Network app in order to get the latest picks and expert analysis.
Chargers vs Bills Odds
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 50.5 -105o / -115u | +271 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -109 | 50.5 -105o / -115u | -350 |
Chargers vs Bills NFL Week 3 Preview
Los Angeles Chargers Betting Preview: Now or Never
The Chargers have been the most disappointing team in the NFL to begin this season.
The system implemented by offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, in addition to the renewed health of the offensive line, was supposed to be a recipe for success — but it has failed to deliver many explosive plays.
Los Angeles ranks last in the NFL in total rush EPA (expected points added), 28th in points per possession, and 30th in explosive plays of 20 or more yards.
The question becomes if and when Justin Herbert can settle into the McDaniel system by operating it at a level on par with his performance in previous years when the roster was not crumbling around him. I have some optimism this is the week the passing attack of the Chargers can get back on track.
Herbert should be able to match and exceed the efficiency through the air that Jared Goff and C.J. Stroud produced through the first two weeks against the Bills defense.
McDaniel has struggled to create opportunities for pass catchers outside of Ladd McConkey, which is why the emergence of second-year tight end Oronde Gadsden could pay immediate dividends in assisting the offense in generating more easy completions.
Injuries to the tight end room (David Njoku, Charlie Kolar) have thrust Gadsden into a key role, but I believe it comes at the right time for Herbert and company.
In the three games Gadsden played more than 50 snaps in 2025, Herbert connected with him on 89% of the attempts that went the tight end's direction. Gadsden averaged 103 yards on 5.6 receptions per game with two touchdown receptions.
The presence of one player may seem minor, but it can make a major difference when you take into account that Herbert has averaged 11.7 yards per attempt when targeting McConkey, but just 6.6 yards per attempt on his 43 passes to everyone else.
The Chargers offense has 13 penalties through two games — only one team has accounted for more. Head coach Jim Harbaugh and his staff will undoubtedly make this a point of emphasis heading into a game they must win.
Assuming these mistakes are behind them, they can expose a Bills defense that ranks 31st in points allowed per possession (3.1).
Even the casual bettor understands backing 0-2 teams in desperation mode is usually a profitable position to back in Week 3, but I decided to dig a little deeper with several trends using BetLabs:
- Over the entirety of BetLabs data, 0-2 teams that are currently underdogs of 7 or more points are 29-18 against the spread (ATS), covering at a 61.7% rate. When the underdog falls into the range of 7-10 points, specifically, that cover rate increases to 64%.
- Over the last six seasons, 0-2 teams are 12-5 (70.6%) ATS as underdogs when playing against a team in Week 3 that is 2-0 ATS.
- Following two consecutive losses, Herbert is 9-4 ATS over the course of his career, a 69.2% cover rate. Harbaugh has only faced this situation eight times in his coaching career in the NFL — he is 6-1-1 against the number in those instances.
Buffalo Bills Betting Preview: Susceptible Defense
As mentioned, I expect Herbert to match and exceed the efficiency through the air that Jared Goff and CJ Stroud produced through the first two weeks against the Bills.
Buffalo allowed the combination of Goff and Stroud to have a passer rating of 118.4 — the third-worst mark for any defense in the league through two games.
73.7% of all pass attempts have gone to the quarterbacks' first read, the sixth-highest for any defense league-wide.
Teams have moved the chains through the air 30 times against the Bills — only the Lions have surrendered more passing first downs.
Chargers vs Bills Prediction, Betting Analysis
It may feel uncomfortable backing a team ranked 18th in both offensive and defensive yards per play facing an offensive juggernaut in Josh Allen and the Bills, but I expect this to be a highly competitive affair.
The Chargers defense has allowed just 3.0 yards per carry to running backs and they lead the league in defensive success rate against the run. They will put themselves in position to get off the field on 3rd down.
Allen will certainly have his moments creating magic to move the sticks, but all it takes is a couple of third-down stops to give the ball back to an offense that can exploit the weak Bills’ secondary and linebackers in coverage.
A more buttoned-up offensive attack will lead to the Chargers cashing in for scores more often when they do sustain drives.
I'm willing to pay a touch of extra juice here by searching for +7.5 at -120 or better. Otherwise, +7 at -110 should do the trick in a game that will remind bettors and analysts alike that Buffalo may still have objective flaws that will plague them down the road in the playoffs when facing the upper echelon of quarterbacks in the NFL.
Pick: Chargers +7.5 (-120)
Spread
I like the Chargers to cover the spread here. It will be tricky considering how they've looked through two weeks, but I expect this to be a highly competitive affair.
Moneyline
I don't see value on either side of the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm also staying away from game totals.
