Marquez Valdes-Scantling Player Props: Expert Pick for Raiders vs Chiefs on Monday Night Football

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Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving Yards

When the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins over the offseason, that left Patrick Mahomes and company needing to fill a major void in the passing game. Rather than going for a one-for-one replacement, the Chiefs opted to bolster their entire receiving room.

Signing Marquez Valdes-Scantling was part of that puzzle. The former Packer has led Chiefs receivers in routes run in each of the first four games, and he is third on the team in both receiving yards (168) and targets (23). He’s eclipsed this line (40.5) in 3-of-4 games thus far.

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Used solely as a deep threat in years past, MVS’ receiving yards prop was very much boom or bust. This season, however, Valdes-Scantling’s average depth of target (aDOT) is a career-low 10.9 yards. For the first time in his career, he’s seeing more targets within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage than deeper throws.

While he’s still a threat to break off a long catch, the increased volume of higher percentage targets lessens the risk of projecting his overall production.

The matchup versus the Raiders sets the fifth-year receiver up with a plus matchup.

Las Vegas has been susceptible to chunk yardage from receivers. The likes of Greg Dortch, DeAndre Carter and KJ Hamler all have had big games against the Raiders, despite not being a top target on their respective teams. The Raiders rank 25th on defending deep throws, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.

I have Valdes-Scantling projected at seven targets tonight, which should translate into more than 50 yards.