Raiders vs Chiefs Picks | Our 3 Best Bets for Monday Night Football
- NFL Week 5 closes with Raiders vs. Chiefs on Monday Night Football.
- Las Vegas trails first-place Kansas City by two games.
- Four betting analysts have three picks for tonight's game, which you can find below.
Raiders vs. Chiefs Odds
|Moneyline||+275 / -350|
|Odds via BetMGM.|
Raiders vs. Chiefs Picks
Sean Koerner: The Chiefs have been the ninth-luckiest team in the NFL, according to our Luck Rankings, while the Raiders rank 31st. Las Vegas is off to a slow 1-4 start, going 0-3 in one-score games, but it’s clearly a better team than that record.
Las Vegas defensive coordinator Patrick Graham should have a better game plan to slow down Patrick Mahomes than his predecessor, Gus Bradley. Last season, when Graham was the Giants DC, his defense held Mahomes to 20 points in Week 8.
Another potentially important factor: the Chiefs missing Harrison Butker. His field goal percentage is over 90% for his career, making his absence potentially impactful during this game.
Billy Ward: Our new Luck Rankings are an attempt to quantify just how “lucky” NFL teams have been. The theory goes that when an exceedingly lucky team plays an unlucky one, the market will overvalue the lucky team, creating value on the unlucky one.
In Week 5, the biggest disparity between two opponents in luck rating comes on Monday Night Football. Coming into the week, the Chiefs were the ninth luckiest team, while the Raiders ranked 31st.
All of Vegas’s losses this year were by six points or less, which is both a factor in the luck rankings and a good sign when you can get them and 7.5 points on Monday. Expect them to at a minimum keep things close Monday Night.
I’d be willing to bet the +7.5 line down to -120. If those get taken off the board, I’d take the +7 line at low or no juice, -105 at the worst.
Brandon Anderson: It’s important to remember the context of this division “rivalry,” if we can even call it that. The Chiefs swept Vegas last season by a combined score of 89-23 and have won 13 of 15 matchups. Kansas City has scored at least 28 in eight straight matchups, averaging 37.4 PPG over that stretch.
The Raiders have basically been a scrimmage for Pat Mahomes and the gang. He’s 6-0 SU against the Raiders and 4-2 ATS, covering by 10.3 PPG. The Chiefs have been wildly pass-heavy this season, and Vegas’s pass defense remains terrible. Vegas is also awful defensively in the red zone, where the Chiefs are magic. Kansas City has owned this matchup.
Can the Chiefs cover though? Mahomes has only covered two of his last eight division games as more than a seven-point favorite, and Monday night division favorites over seven points have covered only 3-of-11 (27%) over the past decade, losing six times outright.
And remember our big early division underdogs trend (60% ATS)? Those teams are an ugly 13-60-1 SU, losing by 10.8 PPG with -29% ROI over the last decade, and only three of the last 20 have won. But two of those three wins came against the Chiefs — one by the Raiders.
I lean Chiefs, but only to -7 and no further. Instead, I prefer Kansas City’s team over. Mahomes overs are 25-18-1 with totals above 51. If the Raiders do cover, it’ll likely be because they finally converted in the red zone and won a Monday night shootout. The Chiefs are getting their points either way.
Billy Ward: Over in the Fantasy Labs NFL Player Models, we have full sack projections for every defensive unit on a given slate. For Monday Night’s Game, we have the Raiders projected for just 1.9 sacks, and Kansas City 2.0
That’s well below the 4.5 line on the game at DraftKings, making the under a solid opportunity. Both offensive lines in this game should have an edge over their defensive counterparts as well. The combined adjusted sack rate between the Chiefs offense and the Raiders defense is the lowest of any Week 5 game, while the Raiders is slightly above average as well.
Our Luck Rankings suggest this one should be closer than the betting line would indicate, which is also good for the sack prop. With the Raiders the likely weak link here, we want to avoid situations where they fall behind and are chasing points.
These teams have combined to allow just 15 sacks in eight total games, while recording 16 themselves. They would need to more than double their average output for this bet to go over.
I’d be willing to pay up to -125 for the 4.5 line, but wouldn’t take this bet if the number drops below 4.5