The Miami Dolphins (1-5) and Cleveland Browns (1-5) will meet in Week 7 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland, Ohio. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Browns are 2.5-point favorites over the Dolphins on the spread (Browns -2.5), with the over/under set at 35 total points. Cleveland is a -150 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Miami is +125 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Dolphins vs. Browns predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, October 19.
Dolphins vs Browns Prediction, Picks
- Dolphins vs Browns pick: Browns -2.5 (-115)
My Browns vs. Dolphins best bet is on Cleveland to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Dolphins vs Browns Odds for NFL Week 7
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 35 -105o / -115u | +125 |
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 35 -105o / -115u | -150 |
Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns NFL Preview
I expect this to be a low-scoring game, but this matchup will likely boil down to a few things.
First off, the weather should play a major role.
Forecasts are calling for rain and strong winds – gusts around 25 to 30 mph. And when that happens, it's incredibly difficult to throw on this Browns' defense.
For years, teams simply haven’t been able to move the ball in Cleveland. The only way to beat them is usually through explosive passing plays, and Miami doesn’t have that anymore.
The Dolphins rank 24th in explosive pass plays, and without Tyreek Hill, the number’s not going up anytime soon.
Add in bad weather and Miami's poor offensive line play, and I don't expect the Dolphins to find much luck trying to move the ball against this stout Cleveland' defense.
So, this game will likely have a run-heavy game script for both teams –and that’s where the Browns have a huge edge.
Cleveland's defense ranks third in rushing success rate defense and second in rushing EPA. Meanwhile, Miami sits near the bottom of the barrel in both categories: 22nd and 31st, respectively.
When Miami is forced into passing downs, their plan is simple – blitz and hope. However, that hasn’t worked for them thus far.
The Dolphins blitz at a top-five rate, yet rank bottom-five in pressure generated. That’s a recipe for disaster against a Dillon Gabriel, who’s been elite against blitz throughout his college and early pro career.
Dolphins vs Browns Betting Predictions, Analysis
The Browns are dealing with some injuries in this spot – David Njoku, Cam Robinson, Jack Conklin – but this Miami team simply isn’t doing anything right at the moment.
The Dolphins' offensive line is a mess, the secondary has been awful and the offense leads the league in turnover-worthy plays.
There’s just not much to like about Miami right now.
Meanwhile, the Browns still have the best unit on the field – their defense – and a running game that should find success against a soft Dolphins front, especially with the potential for some bad weather.
Give me the Browns to cover at home on a classic fall windy day in Cleveland.
Dolphins vs Browns Best Bet
- Browns -2.5 (-115)
Dolphins vs Browns Betting Trends
For the latest on NFL injuries, be sure to check out our NFL Injury Report page.
Dolphins vs Browns Weather
