Chiefs vs. Ravens Weather Forecast: What Wind Could Mean For Monday Night Football Total
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- The Monday Night Football matchup between the Chiefs and Ravens has all the makings of a high-scoring game -- hence the 54.5-point total.
- But there is one factor that may limit Patrick Mahomes' and Lamar Jackson's production: Wind.
- PJ Walsh details how the weather forecast could impact whether the over or under cashes.
Chiefs vs. Ravens Odds
Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson on Monday Night Football. You think bettors might like the over in this one?
To be fair, this game does set up for plenty of offense. The Chiefs come in at 28.5 points per game through the first two weeks, with the Ravens even a full touchdown higher at 35.5. If you were looking to avoid the quick arithmetic, those sum up to 64 — about 10 points higher than tonight’s over/under.
But while all signs may be pointing to points, there is one factor that could put a slight drag on these offenses tonight. That would be the wind.
Chiefs vs. Ravens Weather Report
Wind speeds of 10-11 mph are expected throughout this game, which crosses the threshold that bettors should be aware of.
In our database (since 2003), NFL games that have been played in double-digit wind speeds have hit the under at a 55.5% rate on a sample of more than 900 games. The 496-398-10 record has left under bettors with 69.0 units of profit for a 7.6% ROI.
That makes sense, too. As wind makes passing more difficult, big plays should be slightly harder to come by. And the more the ball stays on the ground, the more the clock continues to move.
It’s probably also worth noting, though, that such games with really high totals (50 and above) haven’t been quite as affected by the wind. They’ve returned a 24-24-1 under record, though that could simply be a result of the smaller sample size.
As of the early afternoon, it seems as though bettors don’t care whatsoever — or perhaps don’t know about — any potential wind implications. Eighty-two percent of bets and 81% of the money have landed on the over, which would make this the most popular Monday Night Football over we’ve ever tracked (Raiders-Broncos on Sept. 12, 2011 received 81% of bets).