The New England Patriots (2-2) and Buffalo Bills (4-0) clash on Sunday Night Football on October 5. Kickoff is set for in 8:20 p.m. ET from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. SNF will broadcast live on NBC.
The Bills are 8-point favorites on the spread over the Patriots (Bills -8), with the game total set at 48.5. The Bills are -450 moneyline favorites and the Patriots are +350 underdogs.
Let's get into my Sunday Night Football preview and Patriots vs Bills prediction for Week 5.
Patriots vs Bills Prediction
- Patriots vs Bills pick: Bills Team Total Over 28.5 (to 29.5)
My Patriots vs Bills best bet is the Bills team total over, with the best price currently available at 28.5 (-115) at Caesars. I also have my favorite same-game parlay for Sunday Night Football listed above. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Patriots vs Bills Odds
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -115 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +350 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -105 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
Patriots vs Bills Sunday Night Football Preview
Note: All Expected Points Added (EPA) data is via rbsdm.com.
The Bills should be able to put up points in this spot against the rival Patriots.
The Bills entered Week 5 ranked first in EPA per play (0.243), EPA per pass (0.357), and EPA per rush (0.091).
Josh Allen will take on a Patriots pass defense that ranks 26th in Passing EPA per play (0.191) and 27th in Pass Success Rate (53.4%) despite facing the likes of non-Seahawks version of Geno Smith, Tua Tagovailoa, 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers and Bryce Young.
Mike Vrabel's defense is third in rushing yards allowed per game (77.5), but that is a bit of a mirage. New England ranks in the middle of the pack in Early Down Rushing Success Rate allowed (37.5%) and gave up 129 yards on 28 carries (4.4 YPC) last week to Carolina, arguably the only team it has faced with an above-average offensive line after opening the year against Las Vegas, Miami and Pittsburgh.
The Patriots have been good on offense as well, ranking ninth in EPA per play (0.082) — though much of that success has come through the air as New England is third in EPA per pass (0.301) but last in EPA per rush (-0.313).
That could be an issue against a Bills defense that ranks seventh in EPA per pass (0.095), fourth in Pass Success Rate (41.5%) and third in Early-down Pass Success Rate (40.7%).
While the Patriots' rushing numbers are skewed due to three lost fumbles by their running backs (Rhamondre Stevenson 2, Antonio Gibson 1), they are still 28th in EPA per rush on plays without turnovers (-0.128).
The Bills have been vulnerable against the run, ranking 30th in EPA (0.12) and 23rd in Success Rate (44.9%), but could be better with DT Ed oliver (questionable; ankle) likely to return.
If New England is forced to pass, Drake Maye's splits indicate that he could struggle against a Bills defense that ranks second in two-high coverage rate (56.1%) and second in zone coverage rate (70.7%).
Maye is averaging just 5.6 yards per dropback against two-high looks (17th of 36 qualifiers, per FTN) compared to 7.1 against single-high (eighth), and just 5.5 yards per dropback versus zone (24th) compared to 7.2 versus man (fourth).
Patriots vs Bills Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Bills have scored 30 or more points in 10 of their last 11 regular-season home games and should be able to extend that streak against a vulnerable Patriots defense.
I like the following Bills alt lines as parlay legs:
- Bills team total over 26.5 (-205; DraftKings): Buffalo has scored 27-plus in 12 of its last 13 home games (including the postseason).
- Bills team total over 33.5 (+150; DraftKings): Buffalo has scored 34-plus in six of its last 11 regular-season home games.
- Bills moneyline (-425; DraftKings): Including the postseason, the Bills are 14-0 at home since the start of 2024.
- Bills -8.5 (-105; DraftKings): Buffalo is 10-4 (71%) ATS in Josh Allen's career as a favorite of -7.5 to -10.5.
- Over 49.5 (-115; DraftKings): The over is 10-3 in Buffalo's last 13 home games (including postseason).
- James Cook anytime touchdown (-210; DraftKings): Dating back to last season, Cook has scored at least one rushing TD in eight straight regular-season games and seven straight regular-season home games.
- Josh Allen over 1.5 passing TDs (-164; DraftKings): Allen has passed for two or more TDs in nine of his last 11 regular-season home games (10-of-13 including postseason).
Some same-game parlays I like using those picks:
- Bills ML + Bills TT Over 29.5 + Allen 2+ Pass TDs: +142 DK
- Bills ML + Bills TT Over 29.5 + Cook anytime TD: +144 DK
- Bills -8.5 + Bills TT Over 29.5 + Allen 2+ Pass TDs: +202 DK
- Bills -8.5 + Over 49.5 + Cook anytime TD: +300 DK
- Bills -8.5 + Over 49.5 + Allen 2+ Pass TDs + Cook anytime TD: +390 DK
Pick: Bills Team Total Over 28.5 (to 29.5)
Spread
No play.
I lean Bills, but this is a big number for a divisional matchup and Mike Vrabel-coached teams are 30-16-2 (65%) ATS as an underdog of +2 or more, per our Action Labs data.
Moneyline
Lean Bills, but the juice is hard to justify outside of a parlay.
Over/Under
I have no pick for the game total, but as I outlined above, I like the Bills team total over 28.5 (to 29.5).
