Jets-Dolphins Betting Preview: How Weather, Tempo Will Impact Scoring

Jets-Dolphins Betting Preview: How Weather, Tempo Will Impact Scoring article feature image
Credit:

Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New York Jets head coach Todd Bowles.

Betting odds: New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

  • Spread: Dolphins -3
  • Over/Under: 46
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: This divisional showdown is holding onto the key number of three for dear life. While the juice was heavily in favor of Miami initially, it has been moving toward the Jets since Tuesday.

They are now in the +3 (-120) range at most offshore books and are getting about 55% of bets and dollars (check our live odds page for updates). — Mark Gallant

Weather report: Miami is holding onto the warm temperatures and is set to be in the low-to-mid 80s. However, the balmy air will be breezy, too, as winds are expected to be around 11 mph.

Games with double-digit wind speeds have gone under more than 55% of the time, according to Bet Labs data, a number that improves to 59.3% of the time in divisional games. — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: New York has dropped two consecutive games heading into its road divisional game against the Dolphins. In his career, Jets head coach Todd Bowles is 11-6 against the spread (+4.4 units) following a losing streak of two or more games. The Jets covered the spread by nearly three points per game in those contests.

When the Jets are listed as an underdog in that spot, they are 9-4 ATS, covering the spread by 4.9 PPG. — Evan Abrams

Dating back to 2003, the Jets are 10-3-1 ATS (+6.9 units) on the road in Miami, their most profitable opponent in that span (covering by 6.2 ppg). But for Bowles, the road has been a treacherous place as the Jets’ head coach.

On road: 8-16 ATS (33.3%), -8.5 units
At home: 17-11 ATS (60.7%), +5.1 units — Evan Abrams

Did you know? Home-field advantage is often overvalued. Since 2003, when two division opponents play and each has a .500 or worse record, the home team has gone 177-221-11 (45%) ATS. — John Ewing

Biggest mismatch: Danny Amendola vs. Buster Skrine

Since Brock Osweiler took over at quarterback three weeks ago, Amendola has been averaging 8.0 targets per game. He will primarily line up against Skrine in the slot, who has allowed 20 receptions, 247 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 27 targets in the slot this season (Pro Football Focus). — Justin Bailey

Which team is healthier? Dolphins

The Jets are banged up on offense and defense. Wide receivers Quincy Enunwa (ankle) and Robby Anderson (ankle) still haven’t managed to return to practice, while cornerback Trumaine Johnson (quad), defensive end Steve McLendon (ankle), and linebacker Kevin Pierre-Louis (foot) aren’t guaranteed to suit up either.

It’s tough to call a team starting its backup quarterback healthy, but the only other Dolphins starters who are banged up are cornerback Xavien Howard (ankle), wide receiver Kenny Stills (groin) and defensive end Charles Harris (calf).

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Dashboard for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Amendola has a fine floor in the slot against Skrine, but Jakeem Grant is an intriguing tournament option for $3,700 on DraftKings. His 1.70 yards per route run (PFF) is the second-highest mark on the team among the Dolphins’ active receivers, and he presently boasts an 87% Leverage Rating on DraftKings, a metric based off a player’s projected ownership and Projected Ceiling. — Justin Bailey

Bets to watch: Under 43.5

Both teams struggle to move the ball through the air, ranking 29th (Jets) and 19th (Dolphins) in passing efficiency per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.

The weather forecast won’t do either passing offense any favors either as Miami is expecting steady 11-12 mph winds throughout Sunday’s game.

According to our Bet Labs data, unders are 447-354-10 (55.8%) in NFL games played in double-digit winds since 2003.

These are also two of the slowest teams in the NFL with the Dolphins ranking 27th and Jets 31st, respectively, in situation-neutral seconds per play according to Football Outsiders.

Two slow offenses that don’t throw the ball efficiently playing in windy conditions doesn’t bode well for a high-scoring game. — PJ Walsh

Jets +3

The Dolphins have been better than expected this season, but they’re clearly not the same team with Osweiler at quarterback. He caught the Bears off guard in his first start (winning 31-28), but has since lost by 11 to the Lions and by 19 to the Texans.

Overall, Osweiler is 10-17-1 ATS as a starting quarterback, so we have a pretty large sample size that this guy is #notgood at quarterback. The Jets are also getting healthier in their secondary, and they’ve been solid on defense: They currently rank 10th in defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders.

I’m taking the points. — Matt LaMarca


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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