NFL Live Betting Week 4: How We’re Live Betting Monday Night Football
Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images. Pictured: Daniel Jones passes the ball against the Seahawks in the Giants’ Week 4 Monday Night Football game.
We're back to just one game on Monday Night Football, with the 2-1 Seahawks traveling to New York to take on the 1-2 Giants. Something tells me Taylor Swift isn't sticking around at MetLife for this one, but hopefully we get another close game like we had last night.
The Seahawks are two-point favorites, so any and all scenarios are plausible here. We need to be prepared no matter what, unlike last night, where we were caught off guard by the Jets keeping things close.
The Live Bets We're Targeting on Monday Night Football in NFL Week 4
Seahawks vs. Giants: Unders in a Close Game, Otherwise Over — LIVE BETS MADE, Over 41.5 & Giants +10.5
Geno Smith is out for the Seahawks, and Drew Lock is in. While Lock immediately led Seattle to a scoring drive, there's a reason he's been riding the bench for most of his NFL career. Furthermore, the Giants have been unlucky in this one, with a long drive ending in a field goal and a failed 4th-and-1 "tush push" on another solid drive. There should be more points on the board from the Giants, which helps both of these bets.
Here's how we broke down the live betting scenarios for this game before kickoff:
This game feels a bit like the Broncos–Bears game last night, in that there's some sneaky shootout potential thanks to poor pass defense on both sides of the ball. The Seahawks are playing the role of the Broncos, with a pair of above-average wide receivers and the ability to outscore the other team despite their poor defense. The Giants are a bit reminiscent of the Bears, with a mobile quarterback who lacks real weapons — especially today with Saquon Barkley doubtful.
The loss of Barkley is a big part of this angle, given that I expect the Giants to still attempt to establish the run. Yet they're unlikely to find much success attacking a Seahawks defense that ranks top-ten in DVOA against the run, while bottom-five through the air.
Seattle has a top-five pass rate over expectation on the young season, and the Giants are also better against the run. That should lead to the Seahawks having no trouble erasing deficits if they do fall behind — especially since they're likely to limit the Giants' time of possession with their strong run game. Seattle falling behind is also a slight boost to the pace, playing about a second quicker per play than the league average.
The inverse of that is a bit scarier, as New York is as bad throwing the ball as the Seahawks are defending it. However, that scenario works out better for the pace, largely thanks to the pass-first Seahawks playing quickly even with a lead. We also expect Seattle to find more success on the ground, which should keep the points flowing and their lead for longer.
The other option is a close, high-scoring game. At some point one team — likely Seattle — should shift into a lower gear and try to keep the opposing offense off the field. This scenario is expected to play slower than average by a bit, though it will require a bit of feel on when to make the bet.
With a pregame total of 47.5, we ideally would like a better number if playing this one live. However, we've got some wiggle room if the Giants take the lead, as Seattle should be able to close the gap at some point. Any other situation, we'll hold out for a better line.
How We Approach Live Betting in General
The NFL is perfect for live betting, with the pauses between plays providing plenty of time to get bets in. This season, I’ve built a model to project the pace of play under a variety of in-game scenarios. These include first vs. second half, as well as which team is leading or when the game is within a touchdown.
The primary benefit is for betting totals. If the game is going to be faster or slower than was assumed pregame, the application is obvious. Faster-paced games tend to produce more points. The broad assumption is that the pregame line is roughly efficient, so we want to target spots where we're getting a better number in the direction that fits the scenario.
Player props also present some interesting opportunities. Sportsbooks are offering a variety of live player props, and faster or slower than expected games create obvious opportunities.
Take a look around various books before placing bets, though. There tends to be more variation between shops in live markets than there is pregame.
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