NFL Luck Rankings Week 18: Colts Jump 5 Spots; Another NFC South Luck Matchup
Action Network/Getty Images. Pictured: Derek Carr (left), Gardner Minshew (center) and Bijan Robinson.
Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are in for Week 17.
These rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed overview of the concept.
Unlucky teams that met at least one of the two thresholds — at least 24 places more unlucky than their opponent in these rankings or at least 50% more unlucky than their opponent — are 12-9-2 against the spread (ATS) this year.
However, a new trend we've been tracking is the unlucky team in games with a Luck Gap of at least 30% in Week 13 or later. Those teams are 28-7-2 ATS over the last six years, including 16-1-1 if that team is also on the road.
Overall, unlucky teams meeting at least one of these three criteria are 116-65-6 (63.6%) ATS since the start of 2018.
Here's how the full NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 18.
NFL Week 18 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
| RANK | TEAM | Luck % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17.85% | |
| 2 | 14.97% | |
| 3 | 13.2% | |
| 4 | 12.68% | |
| 5 | 11.42% | |
| 6 | 9.36% | |
| 7 | 6.98% | |
| 8 | 6.87% | |
| 9 | 5.81% | |
| 10 | 4.21% | |
| 11 | 1.96% | |
| 12 | 0.22% | |
| 13 | -0.4% | |
| 14 | -0.92% | |
| 15 | -1.87% | |
| 16 | -2.15% | |
| 17 | -2.34% | |
| 18 | -2.58% | |
| 19 | -2.95% | |
| 20 | -2.95% | |
| 21 | -3.26% | |
| 22 | -3.61% | |
| 23 | -4.44% | |
| 24 | -5.43% | |
| 25 | -5.99% | |
| 26 | -7.38% | |
| 27 | -7.64% | |
| 28 | -8.49% | |
| 29 | -9.21% | |
| 30 | -9.61% | |
| 31 | -12.93% | |
| 32 | -13.92% |
The Luckiest Teams
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh remains on top of the Luck Rankings after a 30-23 win over the Seahawks in a game our Expected Score had as a 34-24 win for the Steelers. So, despite a small bit of bad luck, the fact that Tampa Bay — last week's No. 2 team — lost, it keeps the Steelers in the top spot heading into a key Week 18 game against Baltimore.
2. Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis secured a 23-20 win over Las Vegas in a game it was expected to lose 21-17, according to Expected Score. That result left Indy as the third-luckiest team of Week 17, which vaults them up five spots in the Luck Rankings.
The Colts' Week 18 game is against Houston in a must-win spot for both teams, with the winner securing a playoff spot and giving itself a chance to win the AFC South.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
Amazingly enough, a game in which Philadelphia lost 35-31 actually made them the second-luckiest team of Week 17. That's because Arizona was expected to win by even more, 36-21 by Expected Score.
The Eagles are now 1-4 in their last five games after a 10-1 start.
The Unluckiest Teams
30. Atlanta Falcons
31. New Orleans Saints
Atlanta and New Orleans retain their positions as the third- and second-most unlucky teams of the year heading into their pivotal Week 18 game. The winner goes through to the playoffs if Carolina can beat Tampa Bay. The Saints also have additional paths to a playoff berth if they win.
32. Carolina Panthers
Carolina recorded its first scoreless game since 2002 in a 26-0 loss to Jacksonville, keeping itself at the bottom of the Luck Rankings heading into Week 18.
That sets up a Luck Matchup against No. 4 Tampa Bay in a game in which both teams will be playing at their best since the Panthers have no reason to tank. That makes this the last Luck Matchup of the 2023 regular season.
Sports betting is coming to the Tar Heel State! Plenty of sportsbooks will be available at launch. Stay up to date with the latest news on FanDuel Sportsbook North Carolina.
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