NFL Mock Draft 2023: Big Changes in Top 4; Expect 2 QBs To Fall

Collaborating with Action Network this spring, you’ll find the latest version of Nick Guarisco’s 2023 NFL Mock Draft below.

Guarisco (@FantasyLawGuy on Twitter) ranked in the top six in mock draft accuracy from 2019-21 at NFL Mock Draft Database, which grades the accuracy of mock drafts across the industry and includes analysts like ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr.

Check out Guarisco's selections for all 31 NFL teams (sorry, Dolphins!) below.

The must-have app for NFL bettors

The best NFL betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

2023 NFL Mock Draft

Click on a team for further analysis of Nick Guarisco's NFL Mock Draft.

* means a trade involving these picks has been reported but is not official.

2023 NFL Draft Predictions

1. Carolina Panthers (from Chicago): Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

Other Possibilities: QB Bryce Young, QB C.J. Stroud, QB Will Levis
Young's Projected Range: 1-2
Young's Likely Landing Spots: Panthers, Texans

There are reasons to believe Carolina’s interest in Young is a masterfully crafted smokescreen designed to entice the Texans to trade up, but I’m putting the chances of that at between 5-10%. Young remains the better favorite to be the No. 1 pick, despite some Monday line movement on Will Levis.

2. Houston Texans: Tyree Wilson, DE, Texas Tech

Other Possibilities: QB Will Levis, DE Tyree Wilson, DE Will Anderson Jr., QB C.J. Stroud
Wilson's Projected Range: 2-8
Wilson's Likely Landing Spots: Texans, Cardinals, Seahawks

Houston wants to trade down and has made this pick “for sale,” which may be indicative of the team’s willingness to pass on a quarterback here. If Houston cannot trade down, it’s BPA (best player available in this case probably means DEs Anderson or Wilson) vs. whoever its QB2 is behind Young. At this point, more intel indicates that Levis is likely the Texans' QB2 over C.J. Stroud.

As of this writing, I would rank the likelihood of Houston’s pick as followed: Tyree Wilson, Will Levis, Will Anderson Jr. then C.J. Stroud. Regardless, what the Texans do at No. 2 remains a mystery until the pick is announced.

Here, new defensive-minded head coach DeMeco Ryans gets a player to build his defense around. Ryans and general manager Nick Caserio have Alabama connections (re: Anderson), but Wilson is a Texas product who would have time to develop before Houston is ready to seriously contend.

3. Arizona Cardinals: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State

Other Possibilities for Titans: DE Tyree Wilson, DE Will Anderson Jr., OT Paris Johnson Jr., CB Devon Witherspoon, CB Christian Gonzalez
Johnson's Projected Range: 3-13
Johnson's Likely Landing Spots: Cardinals, Bears, Raiders, Titans

The Cardinals probably want to trade down with a QB-needy team and target CB Christian Gonzalez or OL Paris Johnson Jr. Many are pointing to DEs Tyree Wilson or Will Anderson Jr. here if the team cannot successfully move down. However, I’m not completely ruling out either Gonzalez or Johnson at No. 3.

In any case, I do believe that Arizona pulling off a deal is more likely than not. Again, OT, CB and DE are the most pressing needs on a team that has many.

The Cardinals' starting O-line made 44 of 85 possible starts last season (last in the NFL), and there are several expiring contracts. Moreover, QB Kyler Murray has vouched for Johnson. On the other hand, the team’s depth chart at DE and CB is devoid of talent.

4. Indianapolis Colts: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

Other Possibilities: QB Anthony Richardson, QB C.J. Stroud
Levis' Projected Range: 2-4
Levis' Likely Landing Spots: Texans, Colts

All indications are that the Colts are taking the highest-graded quarterback who is available for this pick (and not moving up). I’m buying the narrative that Levis is the team’s preferred option, but I consider it a toss-up whether this will be Richardson or Stroud if Levis is taken beforehand.

I find some validity to the narrative that new head coach Shane Steichen would feel more comfortable taking a risk on developing an athletic talent than other coaches, based on his history with Jalen Hurts and others.

As of today, I see the Colts' QB hierarchy as Levis, Richardson then Stroud.

5. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver): Will Anderson Jr., DE, Alabama

Other Possibilities: DE Tyree Wilson, DT Jalen Carter, CB Devon Witherspoon, QB Anthony Richardson
Anderson's Projected Range: 2-8
Anderson's Likely Landing Spots: Texans, Cardinals, Seahawks, Raiders

Seattle is highly likely targeting a defender here, and expectations should be centered around the defensive line. I believe the Seahawks are hoping Anderson falls. If not, that could be the circumstance to consider DT Jalen Carter. Seattle likes CB Devon Witherspoon a lot too.

Additionally, I can see Seattle being in on QB Anthony Richardson but more so for their second selection in the first round (No. 20), perhaps even if Richardson slides into the teens.

6. Detroit Lions (from L.A. Rams): Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

Other Possibilities: DE Will Anderson Jr., DE Tyree Wilson, DT Jalen Carter, QB Anthony Richardson
Witherspoon's Projected Range: 6-7
Witherspoon's Likely Landing Spots: Lions, Raiders

Witherspoon is getting a lot of buzz here, and for good reason, even aside from cornerback being a huge need for Detroit beyond 2024. Witherspoon has the passion for football that this regime covets and primarily plays in man coverage, which the Lions use at a high rate.

I’m not ruling out DT Jalen Carter or quarterback here, but Carter would be a departure from the high character, football-obsessed, culture-centered philosophy this regime has prioritized, while quarterback would be a departure from their pre-draft interest and public comments regarding Jared Goff.

The ultimate NFL betting cheat code

Best bets for every game

Our NFL model's biggest weekly edges

Profitable data-driven system picks

TRY FOR FREE

7. Las Vegas Raiders: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

Other Possibilities: CB Devon Witherspoon, OT Paris Johnson Jr., OG Peter Skoronski
Gonzalez's Projected Range: 5-8
Gonzalez's Likely Landing Spots: Lions, Raiders

The Raiders have spent a lot of time with this year’s quarterback class, but in this case, the team prioritizes their draft picks and does not trade up. I would bet that Will Levis is the QB2 on Vegas’s board behind Bryce Young.

With Vegas, I’m paying close attention to players who are cultural fits and players who New England would love, seeing as many decision-makers in the front office once worked with the Patriots. Accordingly, I’m honing in on Levis, CB Devon Witherspoon, Gonzalez and OG Peter Skoronski.

The Raiders are picking right in the sweet spot for one of the two great cornerback prospects in this draft class.

8. Atlanta Falcons: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

Other Possibilities: DE Tyree Wilson, DE Nolan Smith, CB Christian Gonzalez, CB Devon Witherspoon, Lukas Van Ness
Robinson's Projected Range: 8-21
Robinson's Likely Landing Spots: Falcons, Eagles, Commanders, Chargers, Cowboys

Obviously, upgrading the pass rush is a primary objective. The Falcons have done a lot of homework on cornerbacks throughout the draft process. A star running back like Robinson will entice head coach Arthur Smith, too. DE Nolan Smith plays a position of need, possesses great character and has local ties.

9. Chicago Bears (from Carolina): Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

Other Possibilities: OT Paris Johnson Jr., DT Jalen Carter, OG Peter Skoronski, OT Broderick Jones, DE Lukas Van Ness, OT Darnell Wright
Carter's Projected Range: 5-10
Carter's Likely Landing Spots: Seahawks, Bears, Eagles (No. 10)

Chicago is looking hard at solidifying the offensive line by adding a plug-and-play right tackle. Valid arguments can be made for Chicago taking any of the top four O-Line prospects. Consequently, I’ve seen all four mocked to Chicago throughout the process. My top two would be Paris Johnson Jr. and Peter Skoronski.

However, the Bears would likely be ecstatic if DT Jalen Carter fell here. He fills a major hole in the middle of the defense and was in consideration at No. 1 when the Bears had that pick, which was following Carter’s arrest.

10. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans): Nolan Smith, DE, Georgia

Other Possibilities: DT Jalen Carter, OT Paris Johnson Jr., OG Peter Skoronski, RB Bijan Robinson, DE Lukas Van Ness
Smith's Projected Range: 8-19
Smith's Likely Landing Spots: Falcons, Eagles, Jets

The Eagles should be expected to fortify the trenches here. Anywhere on the defensive line will be a priority, and Smith makes sense with Carter off the board.

11. Tennessee Titans: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

Other Possibilities: QB C.J. Stroud, OT Paris Johnson Jr., OG Peter Skoronski, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Richardson's Projected Range: 4-22
Richardson's Likely Landing Spots: Colts, Titans, Seahawks (No. 20), Ravens, Vikings

The Cardinals probably want to trade down with a QB-needy team and target CB Christian Gonzalez or OL Paris Johnson Jr. Many are pointing to DEs Tyree Wilson or Will Anderson Jr. here if the team cannot successfully move down. However, I’m not completely ruling out either Gonzalez or Johnson at Pick 3.

In any case, I do believe that Arizona pulling off a deal is more likely than not.

12. Houston Texans (from Cleveland): C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

Other Possibilities: QB Will Levis, DE Lukas Van Ness, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, CB Christian Gonzalez, QB Hendon Hooker
Stroud's Projected Range: 4-11
Stroud's Likely Landing Spots: Colts, Titans

I have a hard time believing that the Texans won’t come away with a pass rusher and a quarterback with its pair of top-12 selections. If unsettling narratives are even half true, Stroud could slide here. The Texans have also been linked by several draft sources to QB Hendon Hooker, who I believe could be their QB3 ahead of Anthony Richardson.

*13. Green Bay Packers: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

Other Possibilities: CB Christian Gonzalez, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DE Lukas Van Ness, DE Myles Murphy, OT Broderick Jones, OT Darnell Wright
Smith-Njigba's Projected Range: 7-14
Smith-Njigba's Likely Landing Spots: Packers, Patriots, Seahawks (No. 20)

Historically, Green Bay prioritizes athleticism and adheres to measurable thresholds. Several players in this class fit the criteria.

While the cupboard is barren at tight end, it’s quite possible that the Packers address the position later in the draft, given the talent of the players available and the fact that this is seen as a historically deep tight end class.

JSN would complement WR Christian Watson perfectly while giving new QB Jordan Love the best chance to succeed. Defensive line would be my next guess, considering DE Rashan Gary’s ACL injury.

14. New England Patriots: Peter Skoronski, OG, Northwestern

Other Possibilities: QB Will Levis, CB Devon Witherspoon, CB Christian Gonzalez, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, OT Broderick Jones, WR Zay Flowers
Skoronski's Projected Range: 7-14
Skoronski's Likely Landing Spots: Bears, Titans, Patriots, Jets

If the Patriots want to compete with QB Mac Jones, then the team’s primary needs consist of offensive tackle, wide receiver and cornerback. It sounds like the team would be pleased with Peter Skoronski falling to No. 14. On the other hand, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba makes a ton of sense here, too.

*15. New York Jets: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

Other Possibilities: DE Nolan Smith, OG Peter Skoronski
Jones' Projected Range: 9-19
Jones' Likely Landing Spots: Bears, Titans, Patriots, Jets

The Jets seek to land a premier offensive tackle prospect here in order to bolster the unit for QB Aaron Rogders (in all likelihood). Accordingly, I believe New York would be thrilled if either Peter Skoronski or Broderick Jones were available. While Jones is the superior athlete, which GM Joe Douglas has gravitated toward, Skoronski is the team captain, an accomplishment that Douglas also prioritizes. Daniel Jeremiah has linked DE Nolan Smith to the Jets in prior mocks.

16. Washington Commanders: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State

Other Possibilities: RB Bijan Robinson, OT Broderick Jones, CB Deonte Banks, OT Darnell Wright, TE Dalton Kincaid, S Brian Branch
Forbes' Projected Range: 16-25
Forbes' Likely Landing Spots: Commanders, Lions, Ravens, Vikings, Giants

Washington may feel more inclined to draft an offensive player here, given the defense’s success comparatively. Further, the team will want to hide the quarterback by providing either extra protection or playmakers for new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy.

If not, this would be a nice spot in the first round to grab a cornerback.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland

Other Possibilities: OT Paris Johnson Jr., OT Broderick Jones, CB Joey Porter Jr., CB Emmanuel Forbes, OT Anton Harrison
Banks' Projected Range: 16-25
Banks' Likely Landing Spots: Commanders, Lions, Ravens, Vikings, Giants

The Steelers have been heavily focused on cornerbacks and offensive tackles throughout the draft process, and I would bet on the team coming away with both after their first two selections. The Steelers also have No. 32 to start the second round.

Protecting Kenny Pickett is paramount, but the top options available may lead Pittsburgh to a cornerback.

18. Detroit Lions: Lukas Van Ness, DE, Iowa

Other Possibilities: RB Bijan Robinson, CB Deonte Banks, CB Emmanuel Forbes, DE Myles Murphy, DT Calijah Kancey, OG O’Cyrus Torrence
Van Ness' Projected Range: 8-22
Van Ness' Likely Landing Spots: Texans (No. 12), Packers, Lions (No. 18), Seahawks (No. 20), Ravens

If Detroit takes CB Devon Witherspoon at No. 6, the team will not be targeting a cornerback here. In that case, the odds are that Detroit will focus on the offensive and defensive lines. From what I understand, the Lions are high on DT Calijah Kancey and OG O’Cyrus Torrence.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma

Other Possibilities: RB Bijan Robinson, OT Broderick Jones, OT Darnell Wright, DE Lukas Van Ness, S Brian Branch, QB Hendon Hooker
Harrison's Projected Range: 17-Round 2
Harrison's Likely Landing Spots: Steelers, Buccaneers, Bengals, Chiefs

Tampa Bay would prefer any of the top three offensive line prospects (Johnson, Skoronski or Jones) to slide to this pick, but that seems unlikely given the demand.

It’s unclear if Tampa Bay views Darnell Wright as solely a right tackle, but the team desperately needs a left tackle. This could force Tampa Bay to either reach for the next OT or pivot to a BPA (best player available) approach.

20. Seattle Seahawks: Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee

Other Possibilities: DE Nolan Smith, QB Anthony Richardson, CB Deonte Banks, DE Myles Murphy, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, CB Joey Porter Jr., WR Jordan Addison, OG O’Cyrus Torrence, C John Michael-Schmitz
Hooker's Likely Landing Spots: Patriots, Seahawks (No. 20), Ravens, Vikings, Giants, Chiefs

A slot receiver would pair perfectly with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett on the outside, and Seattle has not signed anyone to replace Marquise Goodwin. Zay Flowers mostly played as an outside receiver, but he has the skill set to play inside in the NFL.

If the Seahawks somehow do not take a defensive lineman at No. 5, I believe the team absolutely would take one here, possibly Myles Murphy. Seattle is a dark horse to attack a falling QB like Anthony Richardson, C.J. Stroud or Hendon Hooker.

21. Los Angeles Chargers: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah

Other Possibilities: RB Bijan Robinson, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR Zay Flowers, DE Myles Murphy, TE Michael Mayer
Kincaid's Projected Range: 16-Round 2
Kincaid's Likely Landing Spots: Commanders, Chargers, Cowboys, Bengals

There are connections between WR Jordan Addison and the Chargers coaching staff worth considering. Moreover, the Chargers should be wanting to add speed to this offense after several injuries to pass catchers last season.

TE Gerald Everett is entering the final year of his contract, making a playmaker like Kincaid a strong option.

22. Baltimore Ravens: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State

Other Possibilities: QB Anthony Richardson, CB Deonte Banks, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR Zay Flowers, DE Myles Murphy, QB Hendon Hooker
Porter's Projected Range: 17-Round 2
Porter's Likely Landing Spots: Steelers, Ravens, Vikings, Giants, Bengals, Eagles

Baltimore should be targeting cornerbacks and wide receivers, in that order. The additions of Odell Beckham Jr. and (to a lesser extent) Nelson Agholor, along with the presumed recovery of Rashod Bateman, may move the needle toward corner, a position that Baltimore has prioritized heavily over the years.

Accordingly, I have a tough time not mocking either Deonte Banks, Emmanuel Forbes or Porter here.

23. Minnesota Vikings: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

Other Possibilities: QB Anthony Richardson, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, CB Deonte Banks, CB Emmanuel Forbes, CB Joey Porter Jr., WR Jordan Addison, QB Hendon Hooker
Flowers' Projected Range: 17-Round 2
Flowers' Likely Landing Spots: Patriots, Seahawks (No. 20), Ravens, Vikings, Giants, Chiefs

Cornerback and wide receiver are the Vikings' biggest concerns, with CB possibly a better bet here due to the addition of defensive coordinator Brian Flores.

In this circumstance, however, five cornerbacks have already been selected and the pendulum has swung toward receiver. Be on the lookout for the Vikings to pounce if QB Anthony Richardson is available in the teens.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars: Myles Murphy, DE, Clemson

Other Possibilities: S Brian Branch, OG O’Cyrus Torrence, TE Michael Mayer, DT Bryan Bresee
Murphy's Projected Range: 15-24
Murphy's Likely Landing Spots: Packers, Seahawks (No. 20), Jaguars, Saints

The Jaguars don't have nearly the amount of pressing needs as they have in years past. Still, the offensive and defensive lines could be upgraded, and the players listed above are players I’ve heard that Jacksonville views favorably. Branch could start at safety immediately given the Jags' versatility in the secondary, while Murphy has been training in Jacksonville.

25. New York Giants: Brian Branch, S, Alabama

Other Possibilities: CB Emmanuel Forbes, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, CB Joey Porter Jr., WR Zay Flowers, DT Bryan Bresee, C John Michael-Schmitz
Branch's Projected Range: 16-Round 2
Branch's Likely Landing Spots: Commanders, Jaguars, Giants

Most mockers will place a wide receiver here, but the secondary is a more dire concern, especially when considering contract situations beyond this season. Accordingly, I’m looking for New York to be high on Emmanuel Forbes, Joey Porter Jr. and Brian Branch.

26. Dallas Cowboys: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

Other Possibilities: RB Bijan Robinson, OT Darnell Wright, CB Emmanuel Forbes, WR Zay Flowers, DE Will McDonald, LB Drew Sanders, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, OG Steve Avila
Mayer's Projected Range: 21-29
Mayer's Likely Landing Spots: Chargers, Cowboys, Bengals, Saints

The Cowboys already have a great defense, per head coach Mike McCarthy, so I’m expecting this pick to be on the offensive side of the ball.

Dallas has brought in a lot of wide receivers for private visits, and the team could not have been pleased with the fact they had to rely on WR T.Y. Hilton down the stretch last season. An elite running back or tight end prospect could provide the offense with extra playmakers after losing TE Dalton Schultz and RB Ezekiel Elliott.

27. Buffalo Bills: Jordan Addison, WR, USC

Other Possibilities: RB Bijan Robinson, WR Zay Flowers, LB Jack Campbell, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DT Adetomiwa Adebawore, DT Mazi Smith
Addison's Projected Range: 20-Round 2
Addison's Likely Landing Spots: Chargers, Cowboys, Bills, Round 2

The top four defensive tackles on the Bills roster all have expiring contracts, which makes the future at the position extremely uncertain. LB Jack Campbell has been working out with Luke Kuechly, who is part of the Bills’ coaching staff.

Wide receiver is also a spot that the team wants to upgrade, but the team may do this by trading for DeAndre Hopkins.

28. Cincinnati Bengals: Darnell Wright, OL, Tennessee

Other Possibilities: CB Emmanuel Forbes, TE Michael Mayer, DT Calijah Kancey, OT Anton Harrison, RB Jahmyr Gibbs
Wright's Projected Range: 16-Round 2
Wright's Likely Landing Spots: Commanders, Buccaneers, Jaguars, Cowboys, Bengals, Chiefs

There exists a glaring hole at tight end despite the one-year deal given to Irv Smith Jr. The team has to like outstanding elite tight end prospects (Michael Mayer and Dalton Kincaid). If the team bypasses tight end, DT Calijah Kancey and CB Emmanuel Forbes are two players who I expect to catch Cincinnati’s eye.

Here, they cannot pass on RT Darnell Wright, who may slide due to some character concerns.

29. New Orleans Saints (from San Francisco via Miami and Denver): Bryan Bresee (DT – Clemson)

Other Possibilities: DE Myles Murphy, TE Michael Mayer, DE Keion White, DT Calijah Kancey, DE Will McDonald, DT Adetomiwa Adebawore, DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah
Bresee's Projected Range: 24-Round 2
Bresee's Likely Landing Spots: Jaguars, Bills, Bengals, Saints

The Saints have a history of drafting bigger, longer defensive linemen while prioritizing athleticism. The Saints can do that here by taking either DTs Adebawore or Bryan Bresee, as well as DE Keion White.

30. Philadelphia Eagles: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama

Other Possibilities: DE Will McDonald, DE Keion White, DT Adetomiwa Adebawore, OG Steve Avila
Gibbs' Projected Range: 26-Round 2
Gibbs' Likely Landing Spots: Cowboys, Bills, Bengals, Eagles, Chiefs

This would be a nice place to draft a defensive lineman if the Eagles do not take one at No. 10.

Gibbs would be a perfect complement to the newly signed Rashaad Penny.

31. Kansas City Chiefs: Will McDonald, DE, Iowa State

Other Possibilities: OT Darnell Wright, WR Zay Flowers, DE Keion White, DE Will McDonald, OT Anton Harrison, RB Jahmyr Gibbs
McDonald's Projected Range: 20-Round 2
McDonald's Likely Landing Spots: Seahawks, Giants, Cowboys, Eagles (No. 30)

The Super Bowl champions should be prioritizing offensive tackle, wide receiver and the defensive line. DEs Will McDonald and Keion White will be appetizing. If WR Zay Flowers fell to this pick, I’m confident the Chiefs would pick him.