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Bucs vs. Jets Odds, Picks, Predictions: Don’t Overthink This, Back Tom Brady Against Lowly Jets Squad

Bucs vs. Jets Odds, Picks, Predictions: Don’t Overthink This, Back Tom Brady Against Lowly Jets Squad article feature image
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Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Tom Brady.

  • The Bucs are double-digit favorites for their NFL Week 17 road date with the Jets.
  • Is there any value on betting this big spread? Our analyst breaks down the Bucs vs. Jets odds in order to make his picks and predictions.

Bucs vs. Jets Odds

Bucs Odds -13.5
Jets Odds +13.5
Over/Under 47
Time 1 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

The defending Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers sit at 11-4 in the NFC, currently occupying the fourth playoff spot in the conference. Despite suffering a myriad of injuries on offense, Tom Brady’s team is very much alive in the race for the conference’s second seed.

The Jets, meanwhile, have endured a difficult season, sitting in the basement of the AFC East at 4-11. They are coming off a solid 26-21 win over Jacksonville and are also battling through several COVID quarantines.

Can the Jets find a way to be competitive and cover an almost two-touchdown spread?


Click the arrow to expand injury reports

Bucs vs. Jets Injury Report

Bucs Injuries

  • WR Mike Evans (hamstring): Questionable
  • WR Antonio Brown (ankle): Questionable
  • S Antoine Winfield Jr. (foot): Questionable
  • WR Justin Watson (quad): Questionable
  • WR Chris Godwin (ACL): Out
  • RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring): Out

Jets Injuries

  • WR Jamison Crowder (calf): Questionable
  • WR Corey Davis (surgery): Out
  • WR Elijah Moore (IR):  Out

Bucs vs. Jets Matchup

Bucs Offense DVOA Rank Jets Defense
1 Total 32
1 Pass 32
3 Rush 29
Bucs Defense DVOA Rank Jets Offense
7 Total 21
4 Pass 27
11 Rush 13
Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.

Injured Bucs Keep Rolling

The Buccaneers offense showed no signs of slowing down last week against Carolina. Tampa Bay buried the Panthers 32-6 thanks to seven sacks and an interception by its defense.

Despite missing several key offensive players, Brady maintained the Buccaneers’ fast offensive pace and found efficiency with new weapons. The Tampa Bay rushing attack totaled 159 yards and two touchdowns on 5.1 yards per carry. With both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans out, veteran wideout Antonio Brown returned with a dominant 10-reception, 101-yard performance.

There is simply no reason why Tampa Bay shouldn’t be able to move the ball effectively against the Jets. The Buccaneers are the second-most overall efficient team in the NFL, with the top overall offense, according to Football Outsiders.

Tampa Bay’s defense, which has been strong against the run all season, has recently climbed to fourth against the pass. The Buccaneers should put pressure on Jets rookie quarterback Zach Wilson all day, as they average the second-most (2.9) sacks per game in the league.

Jets Don’t Stand a Chance

New York continues to fight despite major battles with injury and COVID-related absences. The Jets will be without three key wide receivers in Corey Davis, Elijah Moore and Jamison Crowder. Wilson will be challenged to move the ball with short to intermediate passes, likely focusing on rookie running back Michael Carter and reliable slot receiver Braxton Berrios.

While New York has found a way to average 25 points per game over the past two weeks, its defensive struggles will be too much to overcome against the NFL’s most efficient offense.

The Jets’ awful defensive rankings are devastating against Brady, even without a few offensive weapons. New York’s pass rush has also recently faltered, averaging just 1.7 sacks per game over its last three games. The Jets will find much resistance against a Tampa Bay offensive line that ranks first in the NFL in fewest sacks allowed.


Bucs vs. Jets Predictions

It’s hard to make an argument for a Jets team that is playing poorly on defense and has extensive losses on offense. New York is just 5-10 against the spread, and I believe Tom Brady continues his long-documented dominance over his former AFC East rival here.

Pick: Bucs -13 | Bet to: -13.5

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