NFL Odds, Picks, Predictions & Betting Previews For Week 3: How To Bet Every Game This Sunday

NFL Odds & Picks For Week 3

Week 3 of the 2021 NFL season is here! Our betting analysts have put their heads together to share all of their favorite bets for this week's slate of games. With marquee matchups like Buccaneers vs. Rams and Chargers vs. Chiefs, you won't want to miss any action — or any bets — this Sunday.

Washington at Bills Odds

Mike Randle: Ron Rivera has been historically great against the spread in these spots. His teams have covered 63% of the time when they've been an underdog of at least a touchdown, per our Action Labs data:

Rivera's familiarity with Bills head coach Sean McDermott should keep this game close and low-scoring.

Taylor Heinicke almost led Washington to a playoff upset of Tampa Bay last season, losing 31-23. Heinicke passed for 306 yards, rushed for 46 yards and tallied two touchdowns in that game. Now with extra time to prepare — and backed by a strong pass rush — Heinicke should keep this game within a touchdown.

I'm backing Washington down to +7 and the under down to 45 points in a battle of two even-matched teams with familiar coaching styles.

Pick: Washington +7 or better; Under 45 or better

» Compare real-time NFL odds here

Bears at Browns Odds

Phillip Kall: In his first start, I expect Justin Fields to make some mistakes. Last week he threw an interception late in the fourth quarter that brought Cincinnati within a field goal. This week, things will be no easier as he faces a better defensive front.

While Fields will make some rookie mistakes in his first start, he also has a game-changing dynamic ability. Even in his limited snaps last week, we saw some of these plays.

There was a perfect 40-yard pass that Allen Robinson II dropped in the end zone, as well as his game-clinching run in the fourth. Fields’ blend of high- and low-end plays should lead to scoring opportunities for both teams.

Seven points is too much to put on the line in Fields’ debut with both pass defenses being unreliable. However, the over seems to be a good place to turn in this matchup.

If Chicago starts strong, Cleveland will be able to strike back off of the mistakes Fields makes. If Cleveland pulls ahead early, Fields will either create big plays or make big mistakes.

Take the over in what should be an exciting first start for Fields.

Pick: Over 44.5

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Ravens at Lions Odds

Mike Randle: The Lions fall into a favorable Week 3 betting trend — teams that are 0-2 and underdogs at home by a touchdown or more are 5-0 ATS since 2003, according to our Action Labs data:

The Ravens are the more talented team, but Dan Campbell's Lions squad has competed hard in both games so far. This is a possible letdown spot for Baltimore, with injuries and COVID concerns on its defensive line.

I project a feisty Lions team to keep this game close at home and will back them down to +7.5.

Pick: Lions +8

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Cardinals at Jaguars Odds

Mike Vitanza: Yes, a -7.5 spread is sizeable considering the Cardinals are on the road, but the fact is that these Cardinals — whether Hopkins plays or not — are that much better than this version of the Jaguars.

While certainly more of a comfortable play if DeAndre Kyler Hopkins suits up, Murray has established four other major weapons in A.J. Green, Rondale Moore, Christian Kirk and Chase Edmonds that are more than capable of handling the load.

Add in Murray’s rushing upside, particularly near the goal line, and you still have the ingredients for a comfortable win on the road.

On the other side, Trevor Lawrence has struggled in both starts so far, but particularly against a strong Broncos defense last week. The Cardinals are in the top 10 in most metrics this season so far on defense, so I expect those woes to continue Sunday.

Given the uncertainty around Hopkins, there’s a chance this line slips to -7 before kickoff. Even if it doesn’t, I think this game is still mis-priced at the current number.

While I don’t expect the line to move this high, I’d be comfortable taking it all the way up to -9.5.

Pick: Cardinals -7.5

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Chargers at Chiefs Odds

Brandon Anderson: The Chiefs are 4-2 against the Chargers in the Patrick Mahomes era, but have just a +12 point differential. This is a team that has managed to hang with Mahomes and the Chiefs, with five of those six games contested into the final minutes.

One of those close affairs was the only matchup against Justin Herbert so far, which happened to be his debut in Week 2 almost exactly a year ago. The Chiefs won that one but needed a field goal to send it to overtime and another one in OT to steal the win.

Herbert and the Chargers have the talent and the belief to head to Kansas City and match the Chiefs blow-for-blow. They can score enough to hang tight in a shootout, and the defense has the scheme to slow things down and make life difficult for Mahomes.

The Chiefs are capable of blowing out anyone, but they haven't done that for a long time. The defense isn't good enough, and the Chargers have the talent to stay in this game.

With a line that has risen to a full touchdown, we only need another one-score Chiefs game to cover or at least push this spread.

That means we're betting the Chargers to get the cover at +7. But we're not stopping there. If this is in fact a one-score game, then the Chargers have a real shot at a win. Herbert is good enough to get that win late.

At +250 to the moneyline, the Chargers have an implied 28.6% chance of winning. These Chargers are better than that and the bad Chiefs defense will give them a chance.

L.A. has a chance to steal a win here and upend the entire hierarchy in the AFC West.

Play the Chargers to get the cover and keep this within one score, just like almost every other Chiefs game of late. But don't be afraid to sprinkle a bit on the moneyline too.

This could be our Week 3 "Upset Special."

Pick: Chargers +7

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Saints at Patriots Odds

Michael Arinze: No team has run fewer plays this season than the Saints (51.5). They're also last with 225 total yards per game. Defensively, the Saints and Patriots are in the top 10 in yards allowed with fewer than 306 per game. They're also in the top 10 for allowing their opponents fewer than 2.5 red-zone trips per game.

Both teams are already a combined 4-0 to the under this season, so here's a quick recap of some of the factors that led to that run:

• New Orleans has run the fewest plays in the league.
• Both coaches seem to discourage their quarterbacks from taking risks down the field.
• Both defenses are in the top 10 in yards allowed.
• One quarterback has yet to throw the ball more than 22 times this season.

All signs point to this game going under the total.

Both teams are a combined 16-5-1 to the under in their last 22 games for 10.21 units, according to our Action Labs data:

However, I am hesitant to get involved after missing the best of the number at 45.5. That notwithstanding, I don't see how either team puts up a ton of points based on what they've put on film so far. Although I have a solid lean to the under at 43, I'm going to eschew the advice of my colleague Danny Donahue and play this under as part of a two-leg, six-point teaser.

If you're a traditionalist like Danny, then look away.

I can't pass on an under of 49, no matter how many cardinal rules I'm breaking. I love the idea of combining that play with the Cardinals at -7 and teasing them to -1.

Pick: 2-leg, 6-point teaser with Saints-Patriots under 49 & Cardinals -1

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Falcons at Giants Odds

Mike Vitanza: Widely regarded as one of the top wide receivers in football throughout the preseason, Calvin Ridley has yet to break out as the top option in the Falcons' passing attack.

While he will undoubtedly make that leap at some point this year, I don’t expect it to be Sunday against this secondary.

Not only will Ridley have to deal with tough matchups against some of the better defensive backs in the game in James Bradberry and Adoree Jackson, he’ll also likely see double coverage most of the day with Russell Gage already ruled out.

Additionally, given the dysfunction in the Giants' rush defense, I expect the coaching staff will try and control the game via the run as long as possible.

Ridley’s yardage total currently sits at a robust 80.5 yards. His yardage totals so far this season? 63 and 53. The Giants secondary has more than enough talent to keep him in that range for a third straight week.

I’m taking the under in this one and would play it all the way down to the 75-yard mark if it drops.

Pick: Calvin Ridley Under 80.5 Receiving Yards (-113) at FanDuel

Bengals at Steelers Odds

Joe Klein: The market has made a pretty violent adjustment down on the Steelers this week. It was only a week ago when the Bengals opened as 3-point underdogs in Chicago. I think this number would have been a bit short if the Steelers defensive players were all good to go, but I'm more interested in the total.

These two division rivals have a lot of familiarity with one another. Based on what we’ve heard out of both coaching staffs this week, I’m expecting conservative game plans.

Ben Roethlisberger’s injury and emphasis on the power run game could lead to early down inefficiency. Cincinnati has shut down both Dalvin Cook and David Montgomery this season, and I don’t see why anything would be different this week. And good luck to the Bengals if they think they can run all over the Steelers.

These two offenses are completely out of sorts while both defenses have played at or above expectation. Even if Cincinnati can pass protect, we can trust that Zac Taylor will continue to hamper the Bengals' offensive upside.

Pick: Under down to 43

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Colts at Titans Odds

Billy Ward: This game has an over/under of 48 at some books, a number I think is inflated due to the tough draws both teams have faced.

There are more ways for this game to go under the total than over.

The Titans have played at the seventh-slowest situation-neutral pace in the league so far this year; the Colts are 32nd. The Carson Wentz injury adds another element — if he's less than full strength, the best strategy for the Colts might just be to slow the game down as much as possible.

The total of 48 points is probably a solid mean outcome. If the Titans open it up with their passing game early and the Colts are forced to match them, it could go way over the total. However, it's too high of a median number — there are simply more scenarios in which this game falls short.

Pick: Under down to 48

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Jets at Broncos Odds

Raheem Palmer: After two road games, the Broncos finally have their home opener at Empower Field, where they hold one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL at a time when the advantage of playing at home is decreasing rapidly.

The Jets did take some money within the betting markets pushing this line down (check real-time pubic betting data here). And while it does make sense given the low total of 42 — making the points more valuable — it’s pretty clear they’re facing an uphill battle with a rookie quarterback facing a Fangio-coached defense that is in the top 19 in EPA/play and success rate.

All things considered, Wilson has been a turnover machine, and if he turns the ball over this week, I'm not sure how the Jets stay within this number given their struggles offensively.

As a result, this feels like a 24-10 or 27-13 game.

Bridgewater is a whopping 37-14 (72.5%) against the spread, according to our Action Labs database. With a game against the Ravens in Week 4, this feels like another good spot to back the Broncos before hopping off the train.

Pick: Broncos -10.5

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Dolphins at Raiders Odds

Michael Arinze: In my opening, I touched on the popular narrative for this game, which is to back a team coming off a shutout loss. That certainly makes sense when you look at the league as a whole given that teams are 57-44 against the spread (ATS) for 9.56 units in this spot, according to our Action Labs data:

However, if we just focus on the Dolphins, they're actually 3-5-1 for a loss of 2.16 units. And after digging even deeper, I found that when they're facing a winning team above .500, they're 0-3 ATS in this spot.

I've already downgraded Miami twice this season in my power ratings. While my research and model both support a play on Las Vegas, I'm much more comfortable buying this number down a half-point from -3.5 to -3.

Pick: Buy the half-point for Raiders -3

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Buccaneers at Rams Odds

Brandon Anderson: This has all the makings of a close game, one of those games that comes down to the last possession or two. That means the ball is in the hands of the two marquee names: Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford.

Stafford has waited his whole career for a big game like this. He never got that chance with the Lions, though he did lose all three playoff games when he got a chance. Is the former No. 1 pick up for a challenge like this? As good as he's looked at times in this offense, he's also making a few mistakes, and the Bucs are too talented a team to make many mistakes against.

The books agree this game will be close, and that makes sense. Both offenses are too explosive to be shut down. The matchups do favor the Rams a bit here. Their passing numbers are better so far, both on offense and defense, and the weakest unit on the field might be the Bucs secondary.

On top of that, the public is all over the Bucs. Money came in immediately on Tampa when it opened as an underdog, and the line has continued to move in the Bucs' direction. This line is at -1 or -1.5 at every book and will probably get to -2 or -2.5 by kickoff.

I still can't talk myself into the Rams. At the end of the day, we're getting Brady, all those weapons, and the best team in football with close to coin-flip odds. If the Rams beat the best team in the league, and if Stafford really outplays Brady, then all I can do is tip my cap.

I loved the Bucs when they opened as underdogs. Some of the value has been lost with the line move but at -1, as long as the Bucs win the game then I'm still a winner or a push at worst. I have to take the GOAT and the champs in this spot and force the Rams to go take my money. Play this to -1.5 or pivot to the moneyline.

Pick: Bucs -1

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Seahawks at Vikings Odds

Raheem Palmer: Here's a fun fact: Justin Jefferson was in fourth grade the last time the Vikings defeated the Seahawks. Even more interesting is that the Seahawks are 7-0 against the Vikings during Russell Wilson's tenure in Seattle.

The Seahawks are likely to be one of the biggest public plays of the week, but trends are meant to be broken, and I can't help but think that the Vikings are being undervalued in this spot.

The Seahawks have played in 24 one-score games over the past two seasons and are 18-6 straight up. The 2.5-point spread tells us we're looking at a one-score game and the Vikings are in a prime position to steal this one against a banged-up Seahawks offensive line with an advantage over Seattle's struggling defense.

The wrong team is favored, so I'll take the Vikings at +2.5. I'll also add them to six-point teasers (+2.5 to +8.5) to cross off those key numbers of 3, 6 and 7 — and pair them with the Cardinals (-7.5 to -14.5), who draw the Jaguars.

Pick: Vikings +2.5

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