NFL Picks for Week 9: Bet or Wait Using Our Luck Rankings Model
Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images. Pictured: Bryce Young.
Our Action Network NFL Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of two criteria:
- At least 24 places lower than their opponent in the Luck Rankings.
- At least 50% lower Luck% in the Luck Rankings.
Overall, these teams are 103-61-6 (62.4%) since the start of the 2018 season against the closing spread, which is how we grade them for consistency.
In Week 8, the San Francisco 49ers failed to cover as the unlucky team in a Luck Matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, which moved the 2023 ATS record of unlucky teams meeting at least one threshold to 7-7-2 ATS on the year. In losing this one, my personal record on luck-based sides, which you can see in the Action App, is now 6-4-1 for the season.
We've updated the Luck Total thresholds as we've found some new trends. They are as follows:
- A Luck Total above 10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above 5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 3.
Luck Totals below -5 went 2-3 to the under last week and are 17-10 (63%) to the under this year and 111-76-2 (60%) over the last six years. I went 0-2 last week as tracked in the Action App, moving me to 3-3 this season on luck-based totals.
Our PRO Report and PRO Projections have helped us consistently get closing line value this year, so we'll keep up with the process as we dive into pass/wait/play for luck games in Week 9.
NFL Luck Rankings Week 9 Games
Cowboys vs. Eagles
With a Luck Total of -6.6, this matchup between NFC East rivals is the lowest signal of the four Luck Unders this week. This game also meets our Divisional Unders PRO System, which has hit at a 60% rate over a 305-game sample size.
Money is coming in on the over, so there is a chance this number pushes up off the key number of 47 to 47.5, which would be a big move as 47 is the key number between 44 and 51.
As a result, I'm inclined to wait this out to see if we can get the hook.
Verdict: Wait for 47.5, play under 47 if close to game time.
Bears vs. Saints
The money is pouring in on the under with 59% of bets and 80% of the money backing a low-scoring game.
However, there have been sharp moves at 41 that have pushed the total back to 41.5 a few times during the week.
That, plus our luck-based projection putting this at 41 and our PRO Projection at 40.9 means this game is hovering right around where it should be. I think this is a good spot to pass despite the Luck Total of -7.4 showing a signal to the under.
Verdict: Pass.
Colts vs. Panthers
The Luck Total of -8.8 is getting pretty hefty, and we should strongly consider unders on Luck Totals this large this far into the season. Thankfully, I think it's a perfect spot to take the under considering how lucky overs have been for the Colts in their last two games.
In Week 7 they played to a 39-38 loss against the Browns, then losing 38-27 against the Saints a week later. Those 142 combined points are 42 more than the 100 combined points our Expected Score metric rated those games at.
This is an interesting sell high spot, but I think an even sharper play may be to back the first half under. Both teams speed up in the second half naturally thanks to trailing game scripts these teams tend to find themselves in. But in the first half, they better establish their true pace of play.
According to my Predictive Analytics colleague Billy Ward, the Colts and Panthers combine for 5.5 seconds per play slower in the first half than their full-game averages. And if we trim out first-half plays after the two-minute warning, they combine for 7.1 seconds per play slower than their full-game pace, per RotoViz.
Add in the luck element, and this is a great spot to expect these teams to combine for three touchdowns or fewer in the first half.
Verdict: Play 1H under 21.5.
Commanders vs. Patriots
I talked about this line on our Happy Hour show, and while I did under 40.5, I also said I wanted to wait and see where the market was going with this before locking it in.
Thankfully, waiting was a good call, because this line has moved to 41 on the heels of some big money and sharp action, according to our PRO Report.
Given the bulk of the money is on the over, and we're sitting at a key number of 41, I think the prudent play is to wait even further for a potential 41.5 before backing the under.
Verdict: Wait for 41.5.
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