NFL Luck Rankings Week 9: Falcons, Packers Enter Bottom 3
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Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are in for Week 9.
These rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed overview of the concept.
Unlucky teams that met at least one of the two thresholds — at least 24 places more unlucky than their opponent in these rankings or at least 50% more unlucky than their opponent — are 7-7-2 against the spread (ATS) this year. Overall, unlucky teams meeting at least one threshold are 103-61-6 (62.4%) ATS since the start of 2018.
Here's how the full NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 9.
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NFL Week 9 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
| RANK | TEAM | Luck % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33.34% | |
| 2 | 18.59% | |
| 3 | 17.37% | |
| 4 | 13.84% | |
| 5 | 12.67% | |
| 6 | 12.23% | |
| 7 | 8.15% | |
| 8 | 6.41% | |
| 9 | 6.07% | |
| 10 | 4.02% | |
| 11 | 3.05% | |
| 12 | 2.68% | |
| 13 | 2.23% | |
| 14 | 1.73% | |
| 15 | 0.79% | |
| 16 | -1.03% | |
| 17 | -2.43% | |
| 18 | -2.58% | |
| 19 | -2.58% | |
| 20 | -3.85% | |
| 21 | -6.53% | |
| 22 | -7.66% | |
| 23 | -7.74% | |
| 24 | -7.90% | |
| 25 | -8.83% | |
| 26 | -9.67% | |
| 27 | -11.84% | |
| 28 | -12.1% | |
| 29 | -13.09% | |
| 30 | -13.52% | |
| 31 | -14.07% | |
| 32 | -17.83% |
The Luckiest Teams
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers' Luck% decreased this week after a 20-10 loss to the Jaguars, but that's not enough to move them off the top line. In fact, the expected Score was 32-14, so it wasn't even all that unlucky of a loss for the Steelers.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are on a bit of a lucky streak, having ended up in the top four of our weekly Bad Beats in each of their last two games. In Week 6, they were the second-most lucky team in their 17-13 win over Seattle. This past weekend, they were the fourth-most lucky team. Cincinnati's 31-17 win over San Francisco should have been more like 37-28, suggesting the game was closer than the final scoreline.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles move to 4-1 in one-score games after another one-score win over the Commanders. Philadelphia is now 11-2 in one-score games in the regular season since the start of last season.
The Unluckiest Teams
30. Green Bay Packers
Green Bay enters the ranks of the bottom three for the first time after taking the worst beat of the week this past weekend at the hands of the Vikings. The 2-5 Packers have played more like a team that should have a 3-4 record, putting them almost exactly one win below expectation.
31. Atlanta Falcons
Another new team in the bottom three this week is the Atlanta Falcons. They're on an incredibly unlucky streak, ranking bottom four in weekly Bad Beats in five of eight weeks. In seven of the eight weeks, they've been in the bottom half in luck.
32. Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears are 0-2 in one-score games and while that doesn't sound too terrible, both of those one-score losses were expected to be wins by our Expected Score metric. The 2-6 Bears are 1.4 wins below expectation, making them the unluckiest team in the NFL heading into Week 9.
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