NFL Player Props: Week 16 Expert Picks for Derrick Henry, Jerick McKinnon, James Cook, More
Patrick McDermott/Getty Images. Pictured: Derrick Henry.
- For the NFL slate on the afternoon of Christmas Eve, Sean Koerner has five player-prop picks.
- They range from a star like Derrick Henry to Richie James.
- Check out Koerner's picks and breakdowns below.
RB James Cook
Over 28.5 Rushing Yards (-113; FanDuel)
Despite outplaying Devin Singletary, Cook was out-touched 13-5 on the ground. A lot of that was due to Singletary getting seven carries on the final drive of the game to preserve the win.
The Bills like to save Singletary for high-leverage situations, so I expect them to give Cook a bit more run here against a bad Bears defense in a game that should see high winds.
I’m projecting his median closer to 33.5, but think he has a ton of upside in this spot. Best odds are currently on FD and you can be sent directly to a betslip there using the link below.
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RB Derrick Henry
Under 14.5 Receiving Yards (-115; DraftKings)
Henry has sailed over this number in four of the last five games, but it’s worth noting the Titans have been in four straight trailing game scripts. They should be able to beat the Texans by simply feeding Henry direct handoffs.
The Titans go out of their way to prevent Malik Willis from attempting passes. In the rare event they let him dropback to pass, he’s more likely to scramble than check down to Henry.
Henry has totaled one catch for nine yards in Willis’ two starts this season. This line dropped to 12.5 on Saturday morning. I’m projecting his median closer to 10.5.
RB Jerick McKinnon
Over 26.5 Rushing Yards (-110; BetMGM)
We already know McKinnon’s upside in the passing game, but he has sneaky upside in this matchup as a runner. He actually led the Chiefs backfield in early down snaps last week — part of that was due to Isiah Pacheco getting benched briefly for a fumble.
McKinnon seems like a good bet for 7-10 rush attempts against a struggling Seahawks run defense.
This line rose to 29.5 on Saturday morning. I’m projecting his median closer to 32.5, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he clears that number, as well.
WR Richie James
Over 3.5 Receptions (-102; FanDuel)
James has cleared this number in three of four games since taking over in the slot for the injured Wan'Dale Robinson.
James has an easy matchup against Chandon Sullivan, who is allowing a 78% catch rate. Fellow wideouts Darius Slayton and Isaiah Hodgins will likely take turns matching up against Patrick Peterson (58% catch rate allowed).
It’ll likely funnel more targets James’ way and I’m projecting him closer to 4.1 receptions with a 58% chance of clearing this number.
QB Desmond Ridder
Over 23.5 Rushing Yards (-113; FanDuel)
There could be heavy winds in Baltimore and I expect the Falcons to lean on Ridder’s rushing ability as a result.
As of Saturday at 11:30 a.m. ET, his line moved in a big way to 27.5 at FanDuel, but it's still 25.5 at PointsBet. I’m projecting his median closer to 27.5 and love his upside in this market.
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