NFL Power Rankings for Week 7: Lions Sit First Ahead of Chiefs, 49ers
For the first time since winning the NFL championship in 1957, the Detroit Lions are No. 1 — at least in my NFL Power Rankings Week 7.
I'm not sure the Lions have ever ranked atop anything in my lifetime. Maybe in my "Most Exciting Run of 78 Yards to Net a 4-Yard Gain Behind Abysmal Blocking" rankings the entirety of the Barry Sanders era, but that's about it. Outside of that, the Detroit Lions have spent 40 years of my lifetime as an NFL punchline.
Not anymore.
The Lions tallied their fourth consecutive win by margin of 14 or more points, three of them over potential NFC playoff teams, all four weirdly confident and comfortable. Detroit is tied for the league's best record at 5-1 and has the only win over the 5-1 defending champs. The Lions are the only team yet to lose in regulation, falling to a good Seattle squad in overtime.
Sounds like a worthy No. 1 team to me.
The 1972 Dolphins popped the champagne Sunday as the last two unbeaten teams of the season fell. Maybe the 1957 Lions will pop the Metamucil and celebrate being on top again at last, too.
These are the Week 7 NFL Power Rankings.
(To skip directly to a specific team, click on the team's name in the table below!)
NFL Week 7 Power Rankings
| 1 | 17 | ||
| 2 | 18 | ||
| 3 | 19 | ||
| 4 | 20 | ||
| 5 | 21 | ||
| 6 | 22 | ||
| 7 | 23 | ||
| 8 | 24 | ||
| 9 | 25 | ||
| 10 | 26 | ||
| 11 | 27 | ||
| 12 | 28 | ||
| 13 | 29 | ||
| 14 | 30 | ||
| 15 | 31 | ||
| 16 | 32 |
TIER I — EVERYTHING THE LIGHT TOUCHES IS OUR KINGDOM
1. Detroit Lions (Last week ranking: 4)
The Lions continue to win in really impressive ways.
Part of the reason for Detroit's rise this season has been its awesome rookie class, but the Lions played Sunday without Brian Branch and Jahmyr Gibbs and with Sam LaPorta limited. They also lost David Montgomery mid-game with a rib injury. So what happened?
No problem. Detroit simply fed its one remaining star, Amon-Ra St. Brown, repeatedly for 12 catches and 124 yards, added a long TD from also-kind-of-a-rookie Jameson Williams, and got contributions from a pair of overlooked Reynolds, with WR Josh snagging 50 yards and RB Craig hitting a huge block on St. Brown's TD.
Ho hum, 353 yards and two scores without a turnover for Jared Goff, 9-of-16 on third down, 0.39 EPA per play. Just another day for Goff at this point, now quietly starting to enter the fringe of the MVP race as Ben Johnson's offense continues to hum.
Detroit ranks fourth in Offensive DVOA with the lowest variance, an impressive combination that means the Lions are producing at a high level week after week (as opposed to a team like the Bills — third by DVOA but third-highest variance, and results that show it).
The Lions are a deserving 5-1, with wins against a bunch of good teams, and now the schedule softens immensely with a weak division and a real path to the NFC 1-seed. FTN gives Detroit the third-best odds of any team to make (27.6%) and win (14.8%) the Super Bowl. That shows huge potential value betting the Lions to win the NFC at +700 (PointsBet, implied 12.5%) and the Super Bowl at +1400 (Caesars, 6.7%).
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So what's next for the Lions? How about winning next week. The No. 1 team in my Power Rankings has lost four straight weeks — Dallas in Week 3, Miami in Week 4, Buffalo in Week 5 and San Francisco on Sunday. Up next for Detroit? Heading to Baltimore for a tough test.
I guess even kings get scared, huh?
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2. Kansas City Chiefs (3)
It was a bit disappointing seeing the Chiefs score only 19 points against a Denver defense that allowed 70 a few weeks earlier, but Kansas City's defense is really starting to show something.
The Chiefs held a quality Broncos offense to under 200 yards, and sophomore Trent McDuffie is playing as well as any corner in the league. Kansas City would've blown the game open if not for going 4-of-13 on third down and 1-of-5 in the red zone.
You know Patrick Mahomes will figure out this offense eventually. If the defense is still playing this well when that happens, watch out.
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3. San Francisco 49ers (1)
Brock Purdy finally lost his first regular season game and played the worst game of his professional career, but all things considered, this loss may not have taught us a whole lot about the 49ers.
Purdy was bad. He completed less than half of his passes and finished at -0.22 EPA per play as the Niners tallied only 215 yards on less than four yards per play. But Purdy did that against a Browns defense that looks historically great, and he did it in ugly, windy conditions while missing his three most important teammates — Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel — for chunks of the game.
Even despite all that, Purdy helped lead the Niners down the field into position for a winning field goal attempt. It went wide, but it's encouraging to see Purdy come through in one of his biggest spots ever, even if the final result didn't show it.
We probably shouldn't take too much away from this 49ers loss — as long as Williams, McCaffrey, and Samuel's injuries are as relatively minor as they seem.
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TIER II — I WAS FIRST IN LINE UNTIL THAT LITTLE HAIRBALL WAS BORN
4. Miami Dolphins (6)
It says a lot about the Dolphins' offense that Miami went down 14-0 to the winless Panthers and didn't blink, ripping off a 42-7 run to coast to victory. Raheem Mostert scored three TDs, Tyreek Hill topped 150 yards for the fourth time in six games, and the Dolphins rolled like usual.
Careful, though. Miami has faced the softest schedule in the league, per FTN, and the remaining schedule is ninth-toughest. The Dolphins dramatically failed their only serious test of the season so far, and they continue to struggle on defense and special teams. Good defenses will have answers for this attack, and Miami needs other ways to win. The next big test comes Sunday night in Philadelphia.
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5. Baltimore Ravens (7)
The Ravens went to London and took care of business, dominating the Titans. Baltimore settled for six field goals and went 1-of-6 in the red zone but played like a team that was never really worried it might lose, just methodically taking care of business with another terrific defensive performance.
Are we sure Todd Monken has really reformed this offense? It still feels like the Lamar Jackson show, only not as exciting or dynamic as before. Jackson ran 13 times for 62 yards against the Titans and passed for 223 more, and not much else is happening for this offense outside of him and an occasional Zay Flowers juke. Haven't we seen how this movie ends before?
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6. Cleveland Browns (9)
It's clear at this point that the Browns have a Super Bowl-caliber defense, and then some.
Cleveland ranks first in EPA per play defensively, further ahead of second than second is ahead of ninth. The Browns also rank first in Success Rate, further ahead of second than No. 2 is ahead of No. 22.
Cleveland's outstanding performance against San Francisco on Sunday was the fourth-best Defensive Success Rate in football this season — behind Cleveland's Week 1 and Week 3 performances, and one spot ahead of its Week 2 game. Yes, that means the Browns have four of the five best defensive performances of the season … and they had a bye week and already started three different QBs, too.
Who is this team's quarterback going forward? Does it even matter? Cleveland has faced the fifth-toughest schedule but has the 25th-toughest remaining. The Browns are real, and life should only get easier.
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TIER III — THERE'S MORE TO BEING A KING THAN GETTING YOUR WAY ALL THE TIME
7. Buffalo Bills (5)
Sunday night was the ugliest of wins for the Bills, 14-9 over a tepid Giants offense that somehow went 0-for-5 in the red zone. But at least Buffalo finally won a close game.
The Bills were shut out the first three quarters — by the Giants!! — and it's worrisome that Josh Allen briefly left hurt and didn't totally look right after returning. Stefon Diggs is on pace for 187 catches and 1,757 yards, but he and Allen can only do so much.
The injuries are mounting for this team, on both sides of the ball now. The numbers say there's slight value on the Bills win total over 10.5 and division +145, maybe even on Josh Allen MVP (+850, Caesars), but it's hard to buy in until we see this team healthy.
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8. Philadelphia Eagles (2)
It's a bit harsh dropping an unbeaten team to No. 8 after a last-minute loss, but this has been coming for the Eagles. Philadelphia really hasn't looked convincing in any of its wins, and one-score wins against the Patriots, Vikings and Commanders only look worse in hindsight.
Jalen Hurts had his worst game in the past two seasons. He threw three interceptions, the final one objectively horrible as it straight-up cost his team the game in a moment when he just needed to run clock and make sure Zach Wilson had to drive the length of the field.
Hurts has not looked himself yet, and neither have the Eagles. They probably didn't deserve this loss, but they certainly don't look like last year's team that nearly won the Super Bowl either.
Now stud RT Lane Johnson is hurt, and RG Cam Jurgens is already out, as Hurts was pressured on 21 of 50 dropbacks Sunday (42%). He's now 3-7 with a pressure rate of 40% or higher versus 25-5 without, per Next Gen Stats. Philadelphia's offensive line has been its greatest strength. Are the Eagles slipping?
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TIER IV — DANGER? I LAUGH IN THE FACE OF DANGER
9. Dallas Cowboys (10)
The Cowboys won Monday night to get to 4-2, but it sure didn't feel convincing.
The rushing attack was tepid against a bad run defense. The line struggled to protect Dak Prescott, allowing five sacks. The defense flashed in moments but gave up multiple long drives and could've been gashed for a handful of big passing plays if Justin Herbert had been more accurate.
Dallas was a little better than the Chargers in the end, but it certainly didn't answer many questions. The Cowboys head into the bye week still needing to find some answers offensively with the Rams waiting after the break before the first of two huge Eagles games one month apart.
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10. Jacksonville Jaguars (16)
I'm still finding it hard to believe in these Jaguars, but it's getting harder and harder to argue with the results. I picked against Jacksonville each of the last three games and didn't expect them to beat the Falcons, Bills or Colts, let alone all three.
The offense continues to struggle. Jacksonville averaged just 3.8 yards per play and had only 233 yards, going 4-of-14 on third down. But the defense has been far better than expected, and the underlying metrics suggest this team is coming together in all three phases.
Can a tired, post-London squad playing on a short week with a banged-up Trevor Lawrence keep things rolling? Tough road trips to New Orleans and Pittsburgh await before a badly needed bye week.
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11. Cincinnati Bengals (13)
After all that, the Bengals are 3-3 and seem to be OK heading into the bye, but I'm not quite convinced.
Cincinnati's defense came through to win Sunday, but it was the second time this season the pressure on the defensive line bailed out a poor offensive performance with a win. Joe Burrow might have put up numbers on the Cardinals, but he was poor again versus Seattle, posting negative EPA with a 5.6 ADOT and subpar CPOE. The Bengals had only 214 yards.
Credit the defense and skill players for propping up this team while Burrow gets healthy, but Cincinnati's franchise QB will need to be a whole lot better after the bye if the Bengals are to make a push. The Bengals have the league's toughest remaining schedule. The next six opponents after the bye: 49ers, Bills, Texans, Ravens, Steelers and Jaguars.
Like the other teams in this tier, the Bengals are not out of the woods just yet. They're still significantly more likely to miss the postseason than make it.
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12. Los Angeles Chargers (11)
Monday night felt like every Chargers game in every Chargers season.
Los Angeles did just enough to hang around and compete, not enough to get the big win it needed. The Chargers fall to 2-3 with a trip to Kansas City up next, and Justin Herbert played a miserable game, spraying inaccurate passes all over the field.
The Chargers have all the talent in the world but it never seems to come together, and Brandon Staley's seat is starting to feel pretty warm — not for the analytics decisions he makes during the game, which are actually more often right than not, but for his defensive acumen and overall team management.
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TIER V — HAKUNA MATATA: IT MEANS NO WORRIES
13. Seattle Seahawks (8)
I didn't really mean to drop the Seahawks five spots, or rank them behind Cincinnati for that matter.
The Seahawks were the better team on Sunday and should've beaten the Bengals, but Geno Smith continues to come up small in the biggest moments. He ate four sacks and threw two interceptions and just seems a split second slow on every late-down play. Seattle lost the game only because it went 1-of-5 in the red zone, but a loss is a loss however you get there.
The Seahawks continue to be a bit underrated and look ready to make a run with a soft month ahead, but Seattle has played the third-softest schedule and has the third-hardest remaining, with a brutal stretch against the 49ers, Cowboys, 49ers again and Eagles late. This might be one they look back on with regret.
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14. Houston Texans (15)
The numbers weren't as pretty this week, and the Saints probably outplayed Houston, but the Texans lost a couple games like that early so it's only fair that the luck even out.
For Houston to hit the bye week at 3-3 against Baltimore, Indy, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, New Orleans, even with all those injuries in the secondary and on the offensive line, is really a miracle. The offense has faced the third-toughest defensive schedule — look at those names again — and C.J. Stroud has come out smelling like roses.
Now, everything changes.
Look at the QBs the Texans will face after the bye: Bryce Young, Baker Mayfield, Josh Dobbs, Russell and Zach Wilson, Gardner Minshew, and whoever is starting for the Browns and Titans (x2). That's nine games where the Texans will have the better QB by a wide margin, and remember, Houston already has a head-to-head win over the division rival Jaguars.
Houston faces the second-easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. Texans Island!! They're here.
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15. Los Angeles Rams (14)
The Rams' offense continues to roll while Raheem Morris's defense is quietly starting to find some answers. Are the Rams one of the top seven teams in the NFC? I'm starting to believe.
Up next for L.A.: Pittsburgh, road trips to Dallas and Green Bay, then Seattle. The way the Rams are playing, they can hang and win in these games, but if they are who we thought they were before the season, this could be the stretch where they go 1-3 and fall out of things. Keep your eye on Sean McVay's guys.
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TIER VI — I'M SURROUNDED BY IDIOTS
16. New York Jets (21)
Robert Saleh really needs to let his team do the talking, but that defense is starting to get awfully loud after dominating yet another elite quarterback. Just look at the numbers from QBs the Jets have faced:
- Josh Allen: 236 passing yards, 5.8 YPA, 3 INT
- Patrick Mahomes: 203 yards, 6.5 YPA, 2 INT
- Jalen Hurts: 278 yards, 6.8 YPA, 3 INT
Against three of my top five QBs, the Jets allowed 239 yards per game on a measly 6.3 YPA and intercepted them eight times, a pace of 45 INTs over a full season. And this game against Hurts came without both starting corners, Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed! Phenomenal.
Is it concerning that the Jets are 3-0 when they force three or more turnovers and 0-3 when they do not? Yes, yes it is. Turnover luck can be fickle, and Zach Wilson is still bad. But this defense has some sort of magical swagger that turns elite quarterbacks into mere mortals, and it's truly something to behold.
Last week, I noted that the Jets were a prime buy-low team, with the over 5.5 beckoning. New York is 3-3 now, and that line has jumped to 6.5 — and it may still have some value. FTN has the Jets at 8.0 wins, and Sumer Sports has them at 8.6, with a 34% chance at making the playoffs.
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17. New Orleans Saints (18)
The Saints' defense continues to do its job, but Derek Carr and the offense continue to come up short. New Orleans had 133 more yards than Houston but the offense stalled in the biggest spots with two turnovers, 0-for-2 on fourth down, and 0-for-3 in the red zone.
The underlying metrics continue to say the Saints are a quality team worthy of buy-low consideration, and now they might luck into C.J. Beathard on a short week if the Jaguars have to turn to their back up — and I'm still having a hard time buying in on Carr and Dennis Allen, despite all that.
New Orleans is -130 to make the playoffs and +170 to win its division, both at DraftKings, if you disagree.
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18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12)
Not much to say about the Bucs, whose offense has come up woefully short in both contest against real teams. Tampa Bay was not particularly competitive against the Eagles or Lions, but hey, the return of the creamsicle uniforms was a nice touch.
Tampa Bay's defense is good enough to hang, but can the offense score against top teams?
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TIER VII — AND SO WE ARE ALL CONNECTED IN THE GREAT CIRCLE OF LIFE
19. Pittsburgh Steelers (20)
Everyone in this Circle of Life tier has three wins already, and I have no idea how.
The Steelers still have a winning record despite, well, Matt Canada's offense. Pittsburgh is another team the underlying metrics suggest has some value in the futures market at +155 to make the playoffs (BetRivers), but I just don't see it with Kenny Pickett or this offense.
This week against the Rams has my attention. Pittsburgh had a full bye week to find some answers on offense and get Pickett healthy, and the Rams don't have much talent on defense. If the offense doesn't look any better here, it might be time to sell for good.
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20. Indianapolis Colts (17)
So much for all that "Gardner Minshew might not even be a downgrade from Anthony Richardson" talk. Minshew was positively awful against his former team. His strip sack led to an immediate TD that buried the team early, and he added three YOLO interceptions later.
Minshew continues to ball like he's playing for his life on every snap, and the saddest part is that he's not anymore. The Colts appear to be stuck with him now that Richardson may be out for the season.
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21. Washington Commanders (28)
I genuinely cannot believe the Washington Football Team made it out of my bottom 10…
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22. Atlanta Falcons (19)
I mean, come on! The Falcons out-gained Washington 402-to-193 and nearly doubled the Commanders in first downs. They had three chances to tie things up in the final period and blew all three, and Desmond Ridder was beyond awful.
Ridder had three interceptions and looks to me like he's lost this team. Receivers are quitting on routes mid-play, hanging their heads after another ball sails over their heads. Ridder is now 0-10 ATS lifetime in the first half, burying a hole every game, and he's not talented enough to throw his way out of it.
How do the Falcons not give Taylor Heinicke a look at some point?!
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23. Las Vegas Raiders (26)
Despite the final score, Josh McDaniels was relatively dominant against his mentor. The Raiders went 1-of-6 in the red zone and gave up a late score, or the Raiders might have won by 20.
The Raiders have three wins and might get to four with Tyson Bagent waiting in Chicago this week. Please, gambling gods, let the Raiders get to 4-3 so we can bet their under and miss playoff odds.
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TIER VIII — TRUTH IS IN THE EYE OF THE BEHOLDER
24. Green Bay Packers (22)
The Packers have had a disappointing few weeks, but the bye might have come at the perfect time.
It should mean the healthy return of Aaron Jones at last, absolutely vital to this offense, and it's also a nice chance for Matt LaFleur to re-evaluate Jordan Love's first five games with some real data under his belt.
LaFleur has been killing it this season. Keep an eye on this team coming out of the break.
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25. Tennessee Titans (23)
Asanta sana, squash banana, wewe nugu, mimi hapana.
The Titans are back at No. 25 at last!
All is right with the world. The Circle of Life is complete. The king has returned.
(Grab Titans under 7.5 if it's still available at your book. The Malik Willis show could get ugly.)
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26. Minnesota Vikings (24)
Of course the Vikings finally catch a break and even out their luck with a strip-6 TD ensuring victory in a game in which they recorded 220 yards and went 2-of-13 on third down — against Chicago!! — only for that "luck" to gift Minnesota a win it didn't want and push the division rival Bears that much closer to getting Caleb Williams for the next decade.
Just classic Vikings.
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27. Arizona Cardinals (25)
It's starting to look like the clock may have struck midnight on our early Cinderella Cardinals.
Drew Petzing's offense is slowly regressing, and the defense was always a disaster. Alas. Just as well for a team that needs all the losses it can get with next year's QB draft class.
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TIER IX — NOTHING BUT SLOBBERING, MANGY, STUPID POACHERS
28. Denver Broncos (30)
The Broncos' defense finally played a decent game Thursday night against the Chiefs, so naturally Russell Wilson took a dump on the field with by far his worst game under Sean Payton.
Pick a number, any number: -0.37 EPA per play, 5.3 ADOT, 4.3 YPA, 4 sacks, 2 interceptions. How about the fact that Wilson threw 22 times for 95 yards? Woof.
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29. Chicago Bears (27)
The Bears should build a statue for Tyson Bagent, the way he sealed that L for the team and kept the team in pole position to have the top two draft picks in next year's loaded draft.
And as an added bonus, Chicago fans already got to see Caleb Williams lose right here in Chicagoland as the Bears' future franchise QB threw three interceptions in a miserable loss at Notre Dame on Saturday, so it's good to see Williams already settling nicely into his future home.
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30. New York Giants (31)
The Giants fought hard Sunday night but ended each half with a familiar feeling, failing to punch the ball into the end zone and coming up short yet again.
I joked on Twitter that the Giants just needed to get one more yard to score a touchdown, something they hadn't done since the Nixon Administration, and it turns out I wasn't too far off. The Giants have gone three straight games without an offensive touchdown for the first time since 1976 — the Ford Administration.
Darn you, American history!
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31. New England Patriots (29)
Bill Belichick has now won three of his last 12 games against former assistant coaches.
This loss came against Josh McDaniels and Jimmy Garoppolo and Brian Hoyer, and the Pats didn't even really look particularly competitive. Just the latest low point for Belichick in an already lost season.
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32. Carolina Panthers (32)
At least the Panthers will always have that moment when they led the mighty Dolphins 14-0. Nevermind the final 42-21 score line.
Who you callin’ upid-stay?
NFL Week 7 Power Rankings
- Detroit Lions (Last week ranking: 4)
- Kansas City Chiefs (3)
- San Francisco 49ers (1)
- Miami Dolphins (6)
- Baltimore Ravens (7)
- Cleveland Browns (9)
- Buffalo Bills (5)
- Philadelphia Eagles (2)
- Dallas Cowboys (10)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (16)
- Cincinnati Bengals (13)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11)
- Seattle Seahawks (8)
- Houston Texans (15)
- Los Angeles Rams (14)
- New York Jets (21)
- New Orleans Saints (18)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (20)
- Indianapolis Colts (17)
- Washington Commanders (28)
- Atlanta Falcons (19)
- Las Vegas Raiders (26)
- Green Bay Packers (22)
- Tennessee Titans (23)
- Minnesota Vikings (24)
- Arizona Cardinals (25)
- Denver Broncos (30)
- Chicago Bears (27)
- New York Giants (31)
- New England Patriots (29)
- Carolina Panthers (32)
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