NFL Predictions: Data-Driven Picks for Week 17
Getty Images. Pictured: Minnesota Vikings celebrate.
NFL Predictions: Data-Driven Picks for Week 17
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our NFL betting staff is targeting from the NFL Week 17 Sunday slate. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 1 p.m. | ||
| 1 p.m. | ||
| 1 p.m. | ||
| 1 p.m. | ||
| 8:20 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Panthers vs. Jaguars
By Billy Ward
Remember Travis Etienne? He was one of the most productive backs earlier this season, then he fell off a massive cliff in the second half. He hasn’t topped 40 rushing yards in any of his last four games, including just 12 on six carries last week against the Bucs.
That’s the bad news. The good news is that this week he’s in the definition of a "get-right spot” in every conceivable way. The Panthers are last in DVOA against the run and allow the highest opponent rushing play rate.
Equally important: Jacksonville ruled out Trevor Lawrence, which should incentivize them to play even more run-heavy than usual.
The loss of Lawrence pushes the likeliest game script into near ideal territory for Etienne. The Jags are favored by 4.5 points — they should control this game enough to lean on the ground game, but it won’t be enough of a blowout to get Etienne benched early.
Etienne is a long shot for a reason — he hasn't cracked 80 rushing yards in a game since October. Still, just one of those games (Bengals) came against a team with a below-average DVOA against the run. Etienne was mostly efficient in that game, but was limited to just 11 carries in a trailing game script.
As a hedge to the big swing on this bet, I also like Etienne over 59.5 rushing yards at -115 (same line at most books) laddered up to 80-plus yards at +205.
Pick: Most Rushing Yards on Sunday: Travis Etienne Jr. (+2200)
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Saints vs. Buccaneers
By Nick Giffen
Shaheed has massive upside in any given week thanks to the multitude of ways he can score.
Obviously through the air is avenue No. 1, and this is a great spot for Shaheed to have a big game. Tampa Bay plays Cover 4 at the seventh-highest rate in the NFL, and Shaheed has been a top-12 receiver against that coverage in terms of raw yardage despite missing two games.
Shaheed also has seven rush attempts on the year, so there’s a non-zero chance he grabs a touchdown on the ground.
Finally, as a kick and punt returner, there’s always a path there. Shaheed has been one of the best punt returners this year while Tampa Bay has been bottom 10 in punt coverage (per DVOA).
I have +300 projected as fair odds, and that’s without factoring in any potential punt or kick return probability.
Pick: Rashid Shaheed Anytime Touchdown (+360)
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Raiders vs. Colts
By Nick Giffen
This line is wild to me considering the Raiders have the fourth-highest turnover-worthy play rate forced on opposing QBs.
Minshew has the fourth-highest turnover-worthy play rate among qualified QBs. The three QBs with a higher turnover-worthy play rate – Mac Jones, Desmond Ridder and Joshua Dobbs – have all been benched.
I also have the Raiders as the better team according to schedule-adjusted Expected Scores, so it’s quite possible the Colts play from behind in this one, forcing Minshew into more pass attempts and more bad decisions.
I’m projecting this closer to a 55% chance Minshew throws an INT and would bet this at any plus number.
Pick: Gardner Minshew Over 0.5 Interceptions (+124)
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Falcons vs. Bears
By Nick Giffen
Chicago has quietly been one of the best defensive teams in home games this season from an Expected Score perspective, allowing an Expected Score of just 13.2 points per game.
Yes, the opposing offensive schedule the Bears have faced has been relatively easy, but those offenses average a -4.5% DVOA, which would place them 21st in the NFL, just behind the Saints. Atlanta has an average offensive DVOA of -2.4% with Taylor Heinicke at QB — which isn’t all that different from the average team the Bears have faced — and would place them 20th, just ahead of the Saints.
In other words, Atlanta is relatively similar to the average offense the Bears have faced this year at home.
More recently, the Bears defense has been even better, allowing an average Expected Score of 10.7 over their last five home games and just 8.2 in home games since Montez Sweat joined the team at the trade deadline, including holding the high-powered Lions to an Expected Score of 10.7 points.
The weather forecast is also terrible, with possible snow and 10-15 mph winds with gusts into the 20s, according to the National Weather Service.
Atlanta has a Luck Team Total of -0.5, which adds an additional lean to a floor outcome for the Falcons offense.
As long as the Bears avoid giving up a defensive or special teams TD, I’d expect this to have much better than 16-1 odds to hit.
Pick: Lowest Scoring Team on Sunday: Falcons (+1600)
Packers vs. Vikings
By Billy Ward
The only game within my threshold for value on this prop is Sunday Night Football. The Packers and Vikings meet in Minnesota in a must-win game with playoff implications for both.
Most of the value is thanks to the razor close spread, which opened at Packers +3 but has since moved to just +1 or even +0.5 in some spots. All games in my database with a spread of two or less have hit the “no” side of this prop at around +130, so that’s value in and of itself.
Of course, the "no" side correlates with a tighter spread, so we’d expect games with a spread of one or less to hit "no" even more frequently. While it’s a smaller sample size, the true odds of such games are closer to +115.
Then, of course, we have the total, which is on the lower end of the range at 43. That doesn’t have as big of an impact, but it still provides a bit more edge than we’d get from just using the spread.
Pick: Either Team to Record 3 Unanswered Scores — No (+135)
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