Bet This Bears vs. Packers Prop On Sunday Night Football

Bet This Bears vs. Packers Prop On Sunday Night Football article feature image
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Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers

NFL Prop Bets

Pick
Bet Now 
Aaron Rodgers Under 296.5 Pass Yards (-125)
BetMGM

Consider this a bet against the Bears’ offense — not Rodgers.

Game script has a huge impact on a quarterback’s passing yards. When a team is trailing, they typically throw at a higher rate (favoring the over). But when they’re leading, they typically run at a higher rate (favoring the under). Well, I expect the Packers to jump out to an early lead against the Bears and keep it throughout their Sunday night showdown.

The Bears offense likely won’t be able to put up enough points for Rodgers to keep his foot on the gas for all four quarters, which is why I’m projecting Rodgers for only 282.5 passing yards.

I would bet this under down to 286.5, but here are the projected chances of him going over or under various lines based on my 10,000 player prop simulations:

Pass Yds
Over
Under
288.5
46.3%
53.7%
289.5
45.7%
54.3%
290.5
45.1%
54.9%
291.5
44.5%
55.5%
292.5
43.9%
56.1%
293.5
43.3%
56.7%
294.5
42.7%
57.3%
295.5
42.1%
57.9%
296.5
41.5%
58.5%

That said, the market is offering the perfect opportunity to middle as FanDuel is offering Rodgers’ prop at 270.5 yards.

Here are my projected chances of him going over these lower lines, for those interested in the over:

Pass Yds
Over
Under
270.5
57.3%
42.7%
271.5
56.7%
43.3%
272.5
56.1%
43.9%
273.5
55.5%
44.5%

Still, I prefer the under here because of the projected game script.

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