The NFL season enters Week 10, and I have some NFL prop bets locked in for Sunday for Bills vs Dolphins, Browns vs Jets and Giants vs Bears.
Let's get into my Week 10 player props.
Week 10 NFL Player Prop Bets
- Josh Allen Under 6.5 Rush Attempts (-128; FanDuel); 0.64 units
- Caleb Williams Under 232.5 Passing Yards (-115; BetMGM); 0.58 units
- Mason Taylor Under 29.5 Receiving Yards (-115; BetMGM); 0.58 units
Important disclaimer regarding my unit sizing:
The reason I use 0.5 units as a baseline has nothing to do with my confidence on a pick. It’s about expanding the threshold for what qualifies as an “official play.”
Instead of posting four full-unit plays, I can post eight half-unit plays. That gives followers more chances to get similar odds since lines often move quickly after I post.
For lower-limit markets like tackles, books also dictate my actual stake since I can’t always get full exposure. Every play I post is one I’m confident in.
The 0.5u label simply reflects a structural change, not uncertainty. My real confidence is reflected in the projected hit rate versus the implied odds, and it’s up to you to decide how much value is still there at current prices.
Josh Allen Rush Attempts
Josh Allen has only cleared this number in 3-of-8 games, and this sets up as another spot where I’m not expecting him to lean on his legs much.
The Bills should be able to build a comfortable lead and lean on James Cook and the run game, keeping Allen from taking unnecessary hits in what looks like a low-leverage matchup against the rival Dolphins.
Allen's usually good for one designed run, and there’s always the risk of 1–2 kneel-downs at the end of the game (which is the main threat to this prop). But as we’ve seen the past couple seasons, when the Bills are up big, they’re quick to hand garbage time to Mitch Trubisky, who often takes those kneels instead.
I’m also projecting a lower scramble rate than his 9.4% season mark. Allen's scrambled on just 3.7% of dropbacks vs Cover 2 (Miami plays it a league-high 30% of the time) and only 3.6% vs. the blitz (the Dolphins blitz at the fourth-highest rate).
Combine that with the Dolphins' weakened pass rush (Jaelan Phillips was traded; he was their top pass rusher), Chop Robinson is doubtful and Matthew Judon (who likely has to step up in Chop’s place, has posted a career-low 6.1% pressure rate) and Allen should have one of his cleaner pockets of the year.
That setup limits how often he’ll need to take off and run. I’m projecting Allen around 5.8 rush attempts with about a 63% chance to stay under 6.5.
Caleb Williams Passing Yards
Caleb Williams has cleared 280+ passing yards in back-to-back games, so I think his market is a bit inflated because of it.
This is a matchup against the Giants — who have more of a run-funnel defense — and I expect Chicago to lean on the run more, especially with Kyle Monangai looking great last week in his first start.
I’m simply expecting Williams' volume to be down in this spot. This was a prop I had circled during my Fri/Sat projection sweep, but with the weather forecast looking ugly and both Rome Odunze and DJ Moore banged up and limited in practice, I wanted to lock it in early at this number.
I’m projecting Williams closer to 220 yards with around a 60% chance to stay under 232.5.
Mason Taylor Receiving Yards
Mason Taylor has cleared this in back-to-back games and was the clear No. 1 target with 13 targets over that stretch, but that was also with Garrett Wilson out.
With Wilson expected to return, Taylor should slide back to being the No. 2 target.
This is also a game where I expect the Jets to lean on the run. As 1.5-point underdogs, they’re projected to trail at a 31% lower rate than their season average, meaning they should be able to lean on the run at a higher rate.
It’s also a much tougher matchup for Taylor. The Browns use man coverage at the highest rate in the league, and his yards per route run drops from 1.12 vs zone to just 0.47 vs man. The Browns run Cover 1 on a league-high 35% of snaps, and Taylor has a brutal -0.03 yards per route run across 30 routes against it.
The Browns aren’t going to let him sit down in open zones like he’s been able to for a lot of his targets, and he’ll likely have a defender glued to him on most routes, and that usually leads to Justin Fields either finding another option or taking off to run.
The Jets also just added Adonai Mitchell and John Metchie III; they could chip away at Taylor's target share as they get more involved.
I’m projecting Taylor closer to 24 yards with about a 64% chance to stay under 29.5.
