NFL Props For Dolphins-Saints: A Tua Tagovailoa Over & Alvin Kamara Under For Monday Night Football Week 16

NFL Props For Dolphins-Saints: A Tua Tagovailoa Over & Alvin Kamara Under For Monday Night Football Week 16 article feature image

Getty Images. Pictured: Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa and Saints RB Alvin Kamara

Our Director of Predictive Analytics reveals his favorite NFL player props for Dolphins vs. Saints on Monday Night Football. He has a 511-409-9 (55%) all-time record on NFL bets he's tracked in the Action app, where you can follow all of his picks.

Note that these lines move fast and could be stale by the time you're reading this, which is why we've included his "bet to" threshold for each. You can find his award-winning player projections here.

Dolphins-Saints Monday Night Football Props

Tua Tagovailoa Over 230.5 Passing Yards

Projection: 245.5

The Dolphins have one of the worst offensive lines in football, making it difficult for them to run the ball. As a result, they are one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league, ranking seventh in early-down pass frequency.

Due to their poor o-line, they usually run quick, short pass attempts for Tagovailoa. His time to throw (2.51) is the fourth-fastest among qualified quarterbacks and his 6.8 aDot is third-lowest in the league. Going up against the top-ranked run defense in DVOA in the Saints, I expect Miami to operate that type of offense at an even higher rate tonight. It also doesn’t help New Orleans that both linebackers Demario Davis and Kwon Alexander are on the COVID list. Meanwhile, the Dolphins will have Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle, DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki all playing for just the fourth game this season.

My main concern with this prop is the game potentially getting out of hand and the Dolphins taking a big lead. That said, they are still likely to lean on quick passes in that case, giving Tagovailoa a high floor and making me like this prop regardless.

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Alvin Kamara Under 59.5 Rushing Yards

Projection: 53.5

The Saints placed Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian on the COVID list, forcing them to start fourth-round rookie Ian Book for tonight's game. It's a rough spot for the rookie as he faces a Dolphins defense that blitzes at the highest rate in the league and likes to disguise coverages.

I expect the Dolphins’ game plan to be stacking the box and focusing on slowing down Kamara, Book and Mark Ingram II as runners. Book doesn't have the arm strength or personnel to beat them downfield.

I can see the Saints using dump-offs to Kamara as the most effective way to move the ball, especially if they find themselves in a trailing game script. Therefore, I'm bullish on Kamara as a pass-catcher tonight but fading his rushing production. I'm projecting him closer to 14.5 rush attempts with a median of 53.5 yards.

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