Koerner’s NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Ratings: Best Week 15 Straight-Up & ATS Picks for Your Pool

Koerner’s NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Ratings: Best Week 15 Straight-Up & ATS Picks for Your Pool article feature image

Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sourdough Sam

  • Looking for help with your Week 15 NFL pick 'em pool? You've come to the right place.
  • Sean Koerner has run his model to come with up the best straight-up and ATS picks for Week 15.
  • He ranks all of the options below and even includes a downloadable spreadsheet so you can get customized picks for the exact spreads for your pool.

Whether you’re playing pick’em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick ’em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.

Let’s quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 15 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.

NFL Week 15 Pick ‘Em Confidence Ratings Methodology

These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.

To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the “true” odds are for every matchup.

In theory, sportsbooks’ lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).

Now let’s start with my straight-up ratings for Week 15 then wrap it up with ATS.

Go To: Full SU Ratings | Custom ATS Ratings

Straight-Up Confidence Ratings

1. Ravens

Matchup: vs. NYJ
Confidence Rating: 91.1%

2. 49ers

Matchup: vs. ATL
Confidence Rating: 81.9%

T-3. Patriots

Matchup: @ CIN
Confidence Rating: 79.6%

T-3. Chiefs

Matchup: vs. DEN
Confidence Rating: 79.6%

5. Saints

Matchup: vs. IND
Confidence Rating: 77%

T-6. Packers

Matchup: vs. CHI
Confidence Rating: 66.8%

T-6. Giants

Matchup: vs. MIA
Confidence Rating: 66.8%

8. Eagles

Matchup: @ WAS
Confidence Rating: 65.2%

T-9. Titans

Matchup: vs. HOU
Confidence Rating: 63.6%

T-9. Seahawks

Matchup: @ CAR
Confidence Rating: 63.6%

T-9. Raiders

Matchup: vs. JAX
Confidence Rating: 63.6%

12. Buccaneers

Matchup: @ DET
Confidence Rating: 62%

13. Browns

Matchup: @ ARI
Confidence Rating: 60.3%

14. Cowboys

Matchup: vs. LAR
Confidence Rating: 55.2%

T-15. Chargers

Matchup: vs. MIN
Confidence Rating: 53.5%

T-15. Steelers

Matchup: vs. BUF
Confidence Rating: 53.5%

T-17. Vikings

Matchup: @ LAC
Confidence Rating: 46.5%

T-17. Bills

Matchup: @ PIT
Confidence Rating: 46.5%

19. Rams

Matchup: @ DAL
Confidence Rating: 44.8%

20. Cardinals

Matchup: vs. CLE
Confidence Rating: 39.7%

21. Lions

Matchup: vs. TB
Confidence Rating: 38%

T-22. Texans

Matchup: @ TEN
Confidence Rating: 36.4%

T-22. Jaguars

Matchup: @ OAK
Confidence Rating: 36.4%

T-22. Panthers

Matchup: vs. SEA
Confidence Rating: 36.4%

Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey

25. Redskins

Matchup: vs. PHI
Confidence Rating: 34.8%

T-26. Bears

Matchup: @ GB
Confidence Rating: 33.2%

T-26. Dolphins

Matchup: @ NYG
Confidence Rating: 33.2%

28. Colts

Matchup: @ NO
Confidence Rating: 23%

T-29. Bengals

Matchup: vs. NE
Confidence Rating: 20.4%

T-29. Broncos

Matchup: @ KC
Confidence Rating: 20.4%

31. Falcons

Matchup: @ SF
Confidence Rating: 18.1%

32. Jets

Matchup: @ BAL
Confidence Rating: 8.9%

Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings

Against the Spread Confidence Ratings

I’ve outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Wednesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.

1. Chargers

Spread: 2.5
Opponent: vs. MIN

T-2. Cowboys

Spread: 1.5
Opponent: vs. LAR

T-2. Panthers

Spread: 6
Opponent: vs. SEA

4. Titans

Spread: -3
Opponent: vs. HOU

5. Steelers

Spread: -1.5
Opponent: vs. BUF

T-6. Giants

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: vs. MIA

T-6. Falcons

Spread: 11
Opponent: @ SF

T-6. Broncos

Spread: 9.5
Opponent: @ KC

9. Bengals

Spread: 9.5
Opponent: vs. NE

T-10. Jets

Spread: 16.5
Opponent: @ BAL

T-10. Colts

Spread: 9
Opponent: @ NO

T-10. Lions

Spread: 3.5
Opponent: vs. TB

13. Redskins

Spread: 4
Opponent: vs. PHI

14. Bears

Spread: 4.5
Opponent: @ GB

15. Jaguars

Spread: 6.5
Opponent: @ OAK

16. Cardinals

Spread: 2.5
Opponent: vs. CLE

17. Browns

Spread: -2.5
Opponent: @ ARI

18. Raiders

Spread: -6.5
Opponent: vs. JAX

19. Packers

Spread: -4.5
Opponent: vs. CHI

20. Eagles

Spread: -4
Opponent: @ WAS

T-21. Buccaneers

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ DET

T-21. Saints

Spread: -9
Opponent: vs. IND

T-21. Ravens

Spread: -16.5
Opponent: vs. NYJ

24. Patriots

Spread: -9.5
Opponent: @ CIN

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tom Brady

T-25. Chiefs

Spread: -9.5
Opponent: vs. DEN

T-25. 49ers

Spread: -11
Opponent: vs. ATL

T-25. Dolphins

Spread: 3.5
Opponent: @ NYG

28. Bills

Spread: 1.5
Opponent: @ PIT

29. Texans

Spread: 3
Opponent: @ TEN

T-30. Seahawks

Spread: -6
Opponent: @ CAR

T-30. Rams

Spread: -1.5
Opponent: @ DAL

32. Vikings

Spread: -2.5
Opponent: @ LAC

Custom Confidence Ratings

Your league might be using different odds, in which case, you’ll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.

Note that you’ll want to make sure to add the “-” in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column L.

Here’s an example of what the sheet looks like:

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