NFL Week 3 Picks, Predictions: Bets for Jaguars vs Chargers, Ravens vs Patriots, Bills vs Dolphins
Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Lamar Jackson.
Week 3 in the NFL is Kitchen Sink Week.
Seven teams enter this weekend winless — the Bengals, Titans, Raiders, Panthers and Falcons at 0-2 and the Colts and Texans at 0-1-1 — and we should expect them to pull out every stop to find a way to victory.
These Kitchen Sink teams are 45-29-1 ATS (61%) in Week 3 when not facing another winless team, and they're 31-44 SU.
We've already covered most of the Week 3 games in detail and made picks for all, but a few of them we left for Saturday. You can follow the link to see the pick explanations, and we'll also recap our Bet, Lean, and Pass decisions below now that the lines have shifted.
Remember, you don't have to bet every spread and game. We'll make a pick for each one and explain why they are or aren't worth betting.
Bet
- FanDuel Quickslip: Rams -3.5
- FanDuel Quickslip: Bengals -6
- Panthers +3 vs Saints
Lean
- Packers +1.5 at Bucs
- Cowboys +1 at Giants and under 39.5
- Chiefs -5.5 at Colts
- 49ers -1.5 at Broncos
Pass
- Texans +3 at Bears
- Lions +6 at Vikings
- Falcons +1 at Seahawks
- Titans +2.5 vs Raiders
- Commanders +6.5 vs Eagles
Week 4 Lookahead Picks
- Vikings -1 vs Saints
- Chargers -7 at Texans
Alright, that leaves three Week 3 games we still need to make a decision on. Let's get to it.
Note: Odds are the best available for each pick as of writing. Shop for the best real-time lines with our NFL odds page.
Jaguars at Chargers (-3)
We still don't have any official Justin Herbert news, but the books weighed in heavily Friday afternoon when this line plummeted from -7 — where it had been all week — to -3 in a matter of hours. Herbert missed practiced Friday and is listed as questionable, but he appears closer to doubtful at this point.
Herbert's potential absence means Chase Daniel is in line for his first start since 2019.
Daniel has only started five games in his career, and two of those were meaningless Week 17 starts. He was 1-2 both SU and ATS in the other three games, all with the Bears and — notably — all as a favorite.
I ranked the Chargers offense fourth coming into the season. With Daniel in place of Herbert, L.A. drops all the way to 21st.
Trevor Lawrence has played well and is clearly the superior QB in this matchup. But the Chargers are more talented almost everywhere else — their defense is loaded, the offensive line is far better and the weapons are at least as good, even with Keenan Allen (hamstring) injured.
The big mismatch here might be Jacksonville's weak offensive line against Joey Bosa and that dangerous Chargers pass rush. Lawrence will face a tough challenge against a pass D this talented.
L.A.'s offense, however, will probably be check-down city with Daniel at QB. That would make the under tempting, but the total also plummeted with the Herbert news.
In the end, this line move feels about right. The Chargers are the better team. If this line drops below -3, I'll probably have to play L.A. and trust the other 52 men on its roster.
Otherwise this is just too up in the air to bet, but keep an eye on the app for a potential late play.
The Pick: Chargers -3 (Pass) | Previously: Wait for Herbert news
Ravens (-2.5) at Patriots
This line was stuck on -3 all week before a slight injury scare for Lamar Jackson finally moved this off the key number.
This is a good situational spot for the Patriots. It's their home opener, and Bill Belichick is one of the league's best underdog coaches. He's also 5-1-1 ATS against John Harbaugh, including 2-0 as a dog. The Patriots are 0-2 ATS, and such teams cover 56% of the time when their opponent is not also 0-2 ATS.
Even so, I just can't talk myself into this Patriots roster. The offense has been thoroughly underwhelming and doesn't look capable of taking advantage of Baltimore's messy secondary, and I'm not convinced New England's defense has much of a shot against Lamar Jackson.
Jackson's injury doesn't worry me, so I have to stick with my preseason read. I've got the Ravens as a potential 1-seed and Super Bowl contender, with the Pats outside the playoffs.
If this line had moved above the key number, I'd probably have to trust the trends. Below three, I'll back the team I like far more.
The Pick: Ravens -2.5 (Lean) | Previously: Wait on the key number
Bills (-5) at Dolphins
This matchup between 2-0 squads had Game of the Week potential, but the injury report has made it impossible to predict.
Buffalo's defense will be missing four or five starters, and the secondary is decimated. Corners Tre'Davious White (knee) and Dane Jackson (neck) will watch with safety Micah Hyde (neck; out for the season) from the sidelines, while Jordan Poyer (foot) is also a question mark. That's terrible news when the team you're about to face has a quarterback who just threw for 469 yards and 6 TDs to the fastest pair of receivers in the league.
I've written twice this week about this intriguing Dolphins team. Just how much can Mike McDaniel win games with sheer speed from Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert?
Then again, Miami should've been dead and buried multiple times against Baltimore, and Buffalo's secondary might not be a problem if Miami's banged up offensive line can't keep Buffalo's pass rush out of the backfield.
With two of the top-five scoring teams so far, this has all the makings of a shootout. Miami's corner situation is also shaky, and Josh Allen has destroyed this aggressive man defense in the past, with Buffalo winning seven straight in this rivalry by 19.3 PPG. The over was probably the smart move, but that's risen from 50.5 to 53.
I can't make a decision with all the injuries. Both teams look a bit overvalued in the market after hot starts, but we can't fade both at once. Since I expect plenty of scoring, I'll side with the best weapon in Allen.
Again, we don't have to play every game. I might get some action in live, but I'm mostly interested to watch this one and learn about both teams going forward.
The Pick: Bills -5 (Pass) | Previously: Wait for a line move
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