NFL Week 3 Predictions, Luck Rankings: 4 Games Fit Thresholds
Getty Images. Pictured: Bill Belichick.
Our Action Network Luck Rankings are out for Week 3, and based on this week's games, there are four games where luck is a significant factor.
As a quick recap, the unlucky team from the Action Network Luck Rankings is 100-57-6 (63.2%) against the closing spread (ATS) since the start of 2018 if the unlucky team in a matchup meets at least one of the following two criteria:
- Is at least 24 places lower than their opponent in the Luck Rankings
- Has a luck percentage at least 50% worse than their opponent
For those unfamiliar with our Luck Rankings, here's a quick primer on how to use them for betting the 2023 NFL season.
Let's break down each of the matchups, with a full rundown of all games in a table at the end.
NFL Luck Rankings Week 3 Matchups
Patriots vs. Jets
Luck Rankings: Patriots 32, Jets 7
This game checks both thresholds with a Luck Difference of 25 and a Luck Gap of 95.2% with the Patriots as the unlucky team.
A couple of other important luck splits favor New England here. Teams meeting at least one criterion are 20-9 (69%) ATS in Week 3 and road teams with a Luck Difference of at least 24 and a Luck Gap of at least 85% are 30-9-3 ATS (75%).
Using our Expected Score metric, New England should have a points differential of +12, instead, they have a points differential of -12. Meanwhile, the Jets should be -20 instead of just -13. If results were more in line with Expected Scores, we'd likely see the Patriots as favorites of more than a field goal.
Broncos vs. Dolphins
Luck Rankings: Broncos 31, Dolphins 3
Like the Patriots, the Broncos also are a road team, but they are in an even more prestigious category. Road teams that have a Luck Difference of at least 28 and a Luck Gap of at least 85% are 18-3-2 (82.6%) ATS. If we narrow it down to just road teams with a Luck Difference of 28 or more, that record improves to 12-1 (92.3%) ATS with these teams covering by an average of 8 points.
This game has the potential to be the game with the single biggest luck factor of the year.
Bills vs. Commanders
Luck Rankings: Bills 24, Commanders 9
The Bills are yet another road team, but this time they don't meet the Luck Difference criteria. In addition, the Luck Gap of 54% is just above the second threshold. However, as a road team, the Bills at least get that split in their favor.
Road teams meeting at least one criteria are 50-20-3 ATS since 2018. Teams meeting just the Luck Gap criteria are 47-27-2 ATS overall, including 26-12-1 for road teams.
You may point to the Bills just barely crossing the 50% threshold, but even unlucky teams with a Luck Gap over 50% but less than 70% are still 34-14-1 ATS including 18-7 for road teams.
There are still plenty of luck-based splits that favor the Bills.
Titans vs. Browns
Luck Rankings: Browns 30, Titans 16
With a Luck Difference of just 14, this game only meets the Luck Gap threshold at 53.9%. As the only home team this week among the unlucky teams from the four luck games, the Browns have the weakest splits in favor of them, but they are still positive ones.
Home luck teams meeting just the Luck Gap criteria are 21-15-1 ATS, and that improves to 16-7-1 if the Luck Gap is also less than 70%.
In Week 3 specifically, teams just meeting the Luck Gap criteria are 17-6 ATS with home teams sitting at 10-3, so there still are some positive trends in the Browns' direction.
NFL Luck Rankings Week 3 Matchups
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