Every Sunday night, I reveal the early NFL bets I'd make before the following week. NFL lines tend to move quickly, so it's important that you make your Week 4 NFL picks as quickly as possible.
Here are the NFL Week 4 predictions I made before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
Last year, my early NFL hot reads went 21-15-2 (58%) against the spread; the previous year checked in at 23-9-1.
NFL Week 4 Picks
Packers vs Cowboys Pick
Come on, do I really need to explain to you why you should bet on the Packers in Week 4?
For starters, it's the Micah Parsons Revenge Game, as Parsons and the Packers travel to face his former team in Dallas this week.
The Packers' defense has been awesome so far this season, ranked first in the NFL in DVOA entering the weekend, and they were great in last week's 13-10 loss to the Browns as well.
The Cowboys' offensive line is in trouble. Parsons could be in for a huge game.
The Packers' offense struggled mightily in the loss to the Browns, scoring only 10 points on 230 total yards.
However, this should be the perfect get-right spot for them against a terrible Cowboys defense that just surrendered career performances to Russell Wilson and Caleb Williams in back-to-back games.
The Cowboys' defense is bottom five in the league overall, they rank bottom 10 in explosive play rate allowed, their secondary is banged up, and now they draw a matchup against a Packers' offense that ranks top five in explosive play rate on the other side of the ball.
The Packers' offense should be able to name its number in this spot, especially after getting embarrassed by Cleveland last week.
Matt LaFluer is 19-11 ATS (63%) following a loss as head coach of the Packers. CeeDee Lamb's injury status is a bit of a question mark at the moment.
I expect the public to be all over the Packers in this spot. Grab this line at -5 or -5.5 while you still can; -6 is a key number now, and I could even see this line pushing out to -7.
Pick: Packers -5
Chargers vs Giants Pick
The Chargers certainly look the part early in the season.
The Bolts sit alone atop the AFC West standings at 3-0 entering Week 4 after stringing together an impressive trio of wins against all three of their division rivals to open the season.
Justin Herbert is playing like an MVP candidate. Jesse Minter's defense has been dominant so far. Everything is clicking for the Chargers right now.
I don't love the idea of the Chargers' offensive line going up against the Giants' elite pass rush. However, Herbert has performed well under pressure this season and I still expect him to carve up New York's secondary in this spot.
This could also be a potential breakout game for Omarion Hampton. The Chargers' rookie running back draws a matchup against a Giants defense that ranks 32nd in defensive DVOA against the run this season.
This could be the spot to buy in on Hampton for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
How are the Giants going to score points in this game?
Aside from their 37-point outburst against that awful Cowboys defense — does that even count? — the Giants scored six and nine against the Commanders and Chiefs. Fifteen points in two real games doesn't cut it, and the Chargers defense is the best of the bunch.
This is a Hot Read play because you want to get this line before it hits the key number of -6. As an NFL favorite of under six points, Jim Harbaugh is 28-7 ATS for a crazy 80% hit rate by an average margin of 6.7 points per game.
After Week 3, when undefeated teams face winless teams, the undefeated teams have covered the spread at a 72% rate by an average of 4.9 points per game.
Pick: Chargers -5.5
