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Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
Each week of the season, I’ll give my two favorites to throw a pick.
In 2025, my record was 20-16 for +7.5U. In 2024, I was able to finish at 19-17 for +4.2U, and part of the strategy is finding mispriced INT prices, especially at plus-odds.
Here are my two favorite NFL interception props for Week 5.
NFL Interception Props for Week 5
- Deshaun Watson to Throw an Interception (+105; FanDuel)
- Jared Goff to Throw an Interception (+140; FanDuel)
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Whenever I’m betting interception props, I usually like to find one quarterback that I can fade each week regardless of matchup.
Well, this is gonna be tricky because that quarterback is Deshaun Watson and the matchup is against the Jets.
Why the latter may be troubling is the Jets were laughably bad at creating turnovers on that front. In fact, the interception they got last week on QB Tyson Bagent was the Jets' first INT since the tail end of the 2024 season.
Instead, I think the best thing is to remove the lack of INT memories and just look at this Week 5 matchup as its own scenario, which is why I love Watson to throw an interception.
He has only two interceptions in four games but based on how many turnover-worthy-plays he has this year (seven), he should have closer to four INTs.
The Jets defense isn’t a juggernaut by any means, but they do like to blitz (fifth in blitz rate) and Watson’s TWP rate does see a jump when blitzed. If the Jets got something figured out on defense when defending the pass, this is the time we grab Watson INT, especially at plus odds.
Pick: Deshaun Watson to Throw an Interception (+105; FanDuel)
In 161 pass attempts in four games, Lions QB Jared Goff still hasn’t thrown an interception.
I think that changes this week in Arizona. Even though Goff and the Lions offense have put up 26 or more points in each game this year, something about the passing game still feels off, and I think it could get worse in Week 5.
Yes, the Cardinals are 1-3 in the standings but they’ve had moments of feistiness on defense and could cause issues for Goff. They’ve been able to force turnovers off Justin Herbert and Jameis Winston.
The latter actually threw two of them in the Giants' walk-off win.
Arizona also has decent weapons on offense that can give the Lions defense some issues and keep pace with Detroit if it opts for a shootout. If we get that gamescript, that’s only going to lead to more pass attempts from Goff.
Finally, I hate to use the expression that “he’s due” so instead I’ll say “he’s very lucky” to not have an interception yet.
According to Nick Giffen’s QB INT Luck dashboard, Goff is the second-luckiest QB to not throw an interception this season behind CJ Stroud.
With this prop fair odds closer to a coinflip, I’ll take the +140 all day for Goff to finally throw a pick in 2026.
Pick: Jared Goff to Throw an Interception (+140; FanDuel)
