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The fifth week of the NFL season is upon us, and I'm back again with my weekly player props piece. I went 39-27 (59.1%) last season and 42-19 (68.9%) in 2024 for an overall success rate of 63.8% on my weekly props pieces.
Let's get into my NFL player props for Week 5, including picks for Eagles vs. Jaguars, Giants vs. Commanders, and more.
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NFL Player Props — Week 5
- Trevor Lawrence Under 15.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
- Jameis Winston Over 2.5 Rushing Yards (-102 at FanDuel)
- Joe Burrow Under 255.5 Passing Yards (-111 at DraftKings)
- Deshaun Watson Under 0.5 Interceptions (-120 at BetMGM)
- Joey Slye Over 1.5 Field Goal Made (+107 at DraftKings)
- Drake Maye Under 19.5 Completions (-111 at DraftKings)
- Tyson Bagent Over 10.5 Rush Yards (-112 at Caesars)
Eagles vs Jaguars Player Prop: Trevor Lawrence Rushing Yards
Philadelphia hasn't exactly played rushing juggernaut QBs, facing Matthew Stafford, Cam Ward, and Case Keenum in three of four games so far this season. But in the one game the Eagles did play a rushing QB, they held Jayden Daniels to 31 yards — 19 yards below his career average.
The Eagles just don't create pressure, ranking bottom five in raw pressure and pressure rate over expectation so far this season. They also play zone coverage at a top-10 rate, so QBs are much less inclined to scramble without pressure; and with defenders facing them in zone coverage instead of turning their backs in man coverage.
Trevor Lawrence is hovering at a career low for rushing attempts per game, thanks in part to the Jags 3-1 start. As about a touchdown favorite here, he shouldn't need to scramble any more than he already has been. So, my model projects just 1.7 scrambles at 7.8 yards a pop.
There's the occasional designed run or sneak, but those are mostly offset by potential kneel-downs. So, I'm projecting Lawrence for an average of 15 yards. But that's the average. His median is 12 yards, with a 59% chance to stay under 15.5 yards.
This is still playable at under 14.5 yards as well, but that's as low as I'd go.
Pick: Trevor Lawrence Under 15.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Giants vs Commanders Player Prop: Jameis Winston Rushing Yards
Anyone want a Jameis sweat? Me too.
Winston hasn't run much this year, scrambling just one time in three starts. But he's also faced teams that all rank in the bottom half in pressure rate, including two in the bottom third of the league.
Washington's pressure rate has been better than all three teams so far this season, and it shows in the numbers, allowing 2.2 QB scrambles per game compared to 1.9 expected from the QBs they've faced.
The Rams, Titans, and Cardinals have each allowed fewer scrambles per game than the Commanders, and two of the three also allow fewer scrambles per game than expected. So, Winston really has been playing defenses that just don't allow scrambles.
In Winston's games playing most of the snaps as a Giant, he's averaged 7.6 yards rushing per game, and since 2022 when he stopped becoming a regular rusher, he's still averaged 7.9 yards per game in games where he played the majority of the snaps, with a median of 7 yards.
I don't expect him to run a ton, but a single scramble is likely to push us over this number — and there's potential for more than one, as well as the occasional sneak or designed run mixed in.
Pick: Jameis Winston Over 2.5 Rushing Yards (-102 at FanDuel)
Bengals vs Dolphins Player Prop: Joe Burrow Passing Yards
Miami ranks bottom six in neutral pace (depending on how you define neutral) — and even when trailing, Miami doesn't speed up much, ranking 15th of 21 teams with at least 30 second-half plays while trailing by a touchdown or more.
The Dolphins also have the lowest pass rate over expectation (PROE) of the five teams Burrow will have faced this year, which should also help the clock run.
On the Bengals' side of the ball, my offensive and defensive line ratings in the Luck Rankings Dashboard show that the Dolphins are actually the worst run defense of the five the Bengals will have faced this year, meaning they could possibly lean on the run here more than they have all season.
I also suspect the Bengals will be inclined to run the ball a bit more anyway with WRs Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Colbie Young all questionable.
I have created two new betting systems in the Luck Rankings Dashboard for betting NFL sides, and the Bengals fit both. When both of these systems fire on the same team, these teams are 242-178-13 ATS (57.6%), including 8-1-1 this year.
If the Bengals do cover the touchdown spread, that means they'll have a big lead and can take the air out of the ball.
Pick: Joe Burrow Under 255.5 Passing Yards (-111 at DraftKings)
Browns vs Jets Player Prop: Deshaun Watson No Interception
Much has been made of Deshaun Watson's interception luck, and while it is true with just two picks on seven turnover-worthy-plays (TWPs), we also have to consider longer-term form and the matchup.
Watson's career INT rate is 2.1% both with Houston and with Cleveland. At his consensus line of 31 pass attempts, that's a projection of 0.65 INTs, which is an average, not a median. At that projection, he'd throw no INTs around 52% of the time.
The Browns also have a nice passing game matchup where Watson shouldn't face a ton of pressure, with the Jets ranking near the bottom of the league in pressure rate.
The defenses Watson has faced have also been ball hogs, all ranking in the top half in passes defended and INTs per game, so his deserved INTs per game will look inflated since he's played a tough schedule.
The Jets? They rank fourth worst in passes defended and have just one pick on the year. They forced just one TWP total against Cam Ward and Jordan Love (0.5 per game), who have a combined 11 in their six other starts (1.83 per game). In all, the Jets have just TWPs forced in four games, or 0.5 per game
Since just over half of all TWPs turn into INTs, that means they are forcing around 0.25-0.3 expected INTs per game so far… gross — and by passes defended, they've forced around just 0.56 expected INTs per game, well below league average of 0.7 or so.
So, Watson's 0.65 projection above would be against an average defense, but the Jets are far below average. They play the fifth-most two-high safety in the league including the most Cover 2, which is why teams are throwing passes on them with the third-shortest average depth of target. Short passes have a lower interception rate.
Finally, my projection has Watson throwing less than the 31 attempts the market implies, in part thanks to the weather, which calls for near consistent rain and wind with gusts into the 20s, but also because I think they cover, and possibly win outright here.
The Browns are healthier and fit one of my injury-based betting systems, and dominate the OL/DL matchup in the Luck Rankings Dashboard. I have Watson pretty strongly favored to not throw a pick here.
Pick: Deshaun Watson Under 0.5 Interceptions (-120 at BetMGM)
Texans vs Titans Player Prop: Joey Slye Field Goals Made
My model is projecting Slye for 1.62 field goals, and I think part of the reason we're getting a discount here is because of the weather that's been plaguing the eastern half of the U.S. this weekend.
But current NOAA models show that winds should start dying down around kickoff and continue to die off throughout the game, while precipitation should be minimal to none. That means there's almost no impact on Slye's kicking prop from the weather.
I also have an injury system play on the Titans here, and the matchup tool in the Luck Rankings Dashboard also shows that Tennessee has had the unluckier offense and defense by win probability.
That means I think Tennessee can keep it within one score, and in a low-scoring game, field goals could be at a premium.
Pick: Joey Slye Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (+107 at DraftKings)
Raiders vs Patriots Player Prop: Drake Maye Completions
The Raiders have allowed just a 58.7% pass completion rate this year, and while that's unsustainable, what is sustainable is the fact that they allow the second-longest average depth of target against defensively.
That means more long passes, which are less likely to be completed, and when they are completed, they go for more yards, shortening the number of completions Drake Maye would need to move the ball down the field.
Las Vegas has generated fantastic pressure on the QB this year, ranking inside the top-10 in raw and relative to expectation, with some sites giving them a pressure rate as high as second-most in the NFL.
Either way, Maye should be under duress quite a bit. Maye's average depth of target increases by roughly three yards since the start of last year and his completion percentage drops by more than 20 percentage points. More pressure also means more scrambles and/or sacks, eliminating some extra plays that would ordinarily be pass attempts.
The Raiders have allowed the fifth-fewest targets to RBs despite a 3-1 record and a generally positive game script, showing how well they are doing at eliminating short passes thanks to the pressure as well as an above-average rate of man marking, forcing RBs to stay in and block more or be marked out of the play, thus forcing passes downfield.
One other interesting point from the Luck Rankings Dashboard. Maye's receivers have dropped just two passes this year, compared to four expected. An extra drop would hurt the completions as well.
I have Maye projected for fewer than the 30 pass attempts the market has him at, and a slightly lower completion percentage than the 65% the market implies as well. I have about a full completion under the 19.5 projected.
Pick: Drake Maye Under 19.5 Pass Completions (-111 at DraftKings)
Bears vs Packers Player Prop: Tyson Bagent Rush Yards
Tyson Bagent hasn't done much with his legs since his rookie year, when he made four starts, because last week was his first start since then.
In his five career starts, he's cleared this number three times, including performances of 24 and 70 yards. Clearly he's not afraid to run.
Now he faces a Green Bay defense that has actually done a good job at generating pressure, ranking inside the top-10 in both raw pressure rate and pressure rate over expected.
That could force him to run a bit more than he did against the Jets, who generate pressure at one of the lowest rates in the NFL, where he had just one scramble for four yards and three kneel-downs.
In fact, the Packers have allowed QBs to rush for 19.5 yards per game compared to 13.9 yards expected by my model, so they definitely are a team QBs can run on.
If we normalize Bagent's career rushing yardage to the actual percentage of snaps he's played, he's run for around 17.9 yards per game. My model is hedging a bit and giving him an average projection of 17.3 yards with a median of 14. But that means it has him clearing 10.5 almost 60% of the time.
Pick: Tyson Bagent Over 10.5 Rush Yards (-112 at DraftKings)
