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Week 5 of the NFL season is officially underway, and our Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, has locked in a total of seven NFL prop bets for Sunday featuring picks for Raiders vs. Patriots, Browns vs. Jets, Vikings vs. Saints, and Bears vs Packers.
Let's get into his NFL Week 5 player props and best bets for Sunday, October 11.
NFL Player Props Week 5
- Cody White Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-114) | 40+ Receiving Yards (+293)
- Kenyon Sadiq Under 32.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
- Juwan Johnson Under 4.5 Receptions (-138)
- MarShawn Lloyd Over 2.5 Receptions (+125) | 4+ Receptions (+336) | 5+ Receptions (+790)
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Cody White Receiving Yards
Cody White and Efton Chism are both sneaky candidates for expanded roles in this game with Jalen Nailor and Mack Hollins out, but I’m showing more value on White and think his path is clearer.
When Nailor left last week, White took over his role and was even playing ahead of Tre Tucker in certain situations. His underlying numbers have quietly been solid, and I’m projecting him to run a route on around 60% of Kirk Cousins’ dropbacks, which is a massive playing-time boost.
White also came over from Seattle with Klint Kubiak, who clearly thinks highly of him.
Vegas uses a ton of 2-3 TE personnel sets, but they’ve also barely played from behind. As 3.5-point road underdogs, I have the Raiders projected to trail at a 31% higher rate, which should mean more passing and potentially more 3-WR sets.
New England is also missing both starting CBs, Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis, making the matchup much friendlier.
I want this before Jeanty is potentially ruled out because that could easily add a couple yards to White’s number. I have his median closer to 25.5 yards with around a 60% chance to clear 19.5.
I also like 40+ yards at +293. I have that priced closer to +210, and with White’s wide range of outcomes/upside, that feels like the sweet spot for an alternate over.
I still show some value at 50+, but 60+ is much closer to the book price.
Pick: Cody White Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (114) | 40+ Receiving Yards (+293)
Kenyon Sadiq Receiving Yards
It’s been a roller coaster two-game stretch for Kenyon Sadiq after going 7/105/1 and then 0/0/0.
I mentioned on our Fantasy Flex podcast that the eruption game was basically best case: Adonai Mitchell and Mason Taylor were both out, and he got to face the burnable Lions defense.
Sadiq's underlying usage was still fine last week, but the Jets got crushed in time of possession. This would normally be a pretty obvious buy-low spot on a player that I still think is the most talented TE in this rookie class.
However, there are just too many things working against him here. Mason Taylor returns, and while he’s not a huge threat to Sadiq’s target share, he does matter for playing time.
Sadiq averaged just a 41% routes run rate with Taylor active over the first two weeks and 62% with him out. I’m projecting closer to 55% here, and even that might be a little generous.
The Browns play man coverage at the highest rate in the league, and Sadiq still doesn’t have a catch on nine routes against Cover 1. A lot of his production has come underneath with yards after the catch, which gets tougher against man.
Sadiq has also produced more when Geno Smith is pressured, but a lot of that came against Detroit, where the pressure comes with a much softer secondary. The Browns secondary is much better than the Lions'.
The game script could work against him, too. The Jets are rare 2.5-point favorites, so I’m expecting a more run-heavy environment, especially if Deshaun Watson’s interception luck finally catches up to him.
Add in the chance of rain, and most of the underlying factors are pointing the same way.
The main thing Sadiq has going for him is that he’s really talented, but I have him closer to 27.5 receiving yards with around a 60% chance to stay under 32.5.
Pick: Kenyon Sadiq Under 32.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Juwan Johnson Receptions
Juwan Johnson has cleared this number in back-to-back games, but I think this is a good sell-high spot.
The Saints have been stuck in trailing scripts all season and asking Tyler Shough to drop back a million times. That could obviously happen again and cook us, but as only 2-point underdogs, I’m expecting a much more neutral environment where they can lean on the run a bit more.
Then there’s Brian Flores, who has basically gone completely insane with the blitz this year at around 68%, while Minnesota is also generating pressure at one of the highest rates in the league. That matters because Johnson's target rate drops from 19% with a clean pocket to 13% under pressure.
The Vikings play zone at the highest rate in the league by far — Johnson's target rate drops from 25% against man to 15% against zone. That actually makes sense for him since he’s a former WR and much more of a man-beating, pass-catching TE than your typical guy at the position.
Last week was also basically best case scenario for his playing time with Noah Fant out as Johnson ran a route on 75% of Shough’s dropbacks.
With Fant back and rookie Oscar Delp starting to play more, I think that settles closer to 60-65%, and we could even see more 12-personnel with Fant/Delp since they’re better blockers equipped to face this ridiculous Vikings pressure package.
When Johnson does get targeted, those looks could also be a little more downfield than usual, which is why I’d much rather fade receptions than yards.
I have him closer to 3.9 catches with around a 64% chance to stay under 4.5.
Pick: Juwan Johnson Under 4.5 Receptions (-138)
MarShawn Lloyd Receptions
Chris Brooks has landed on injured reserve and we saw MarShawn Lloyd take over most of Brooks' passing-down work last week.
After Brooks left, Lloyd ran a route on 50% of Jordan Love’s dropbacks and went 5/36/0 receiving. I like that role carrying over.
The other thing I like is that Lloyd has seen a high rate of designed targets/screens. Those are much stickier week to week and much easier to complete than normal RB targets. Lloyd hasn’t done much with them after the catch, which is why I’d rather attack receptions than yards.
Green Bay is also a home underdog, so there’s a real chance we get a trailing/hurry-up script where Lloyd’s role becomes even more valuable. And these RB catches can come in bunches.
In a 2-minute drill, Love could easily hit the checkdown on back-to-back plays if Chicago is sitting off.
I have Lloyd closer to 3.0 catches with around a 57% chance to clear 2.5, so getting +125 is attractive.
I’m laddering this too because the upside gets pretty interesting if Green Bay is chasing points:
That feels like the sweet spot. The value drops off quite a bit at 6+, where I have him closer to +1200.
Pick: MarShawn Lloyd Over 2.5 Receptions (+125)
