Koerner: Ranking Week 7 NFL Straight-Up, ATS Picks

Koerner: Ranking Week 7 NFL Straight-Up, ATS Picks article feature image
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Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Pete Carroll

  • Sean Koerner uses his proprietary model and projections to label confidence ratings for his Week 7 NFL picks.
  • Below you'll find 1-32 rankings for both straight-up and against-the-spread picks for Sunday's main slate.
  • You'll also get access to a spreadsheet that will return personalized ratings based on the odds you input.

Whether you’re playing pick’em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick ’em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.

Let’s quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 7 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.


Odds as of Tuesday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).


NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Ratings Methodology

These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.

To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the “true” odds are for every matchup.

In theory, sportsbooks’ lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).

Now let’s start with my straight-up ratings for Week 7 then wrap it up with ATS.


Go To: Full SU Ratings | Custom ATS Ratings


Straight-Up Confidence Ratings

1. Bills

Matchup: vs. MIA
Confidence Rating: 91.1%

2. 49ers

Matchup: @ WAS
Confidence Rating: 84.1%

3. Patriots

Matchup: @ NYJ
Confidence Rating: 83.1%

4. Packers

Matchup: vs. OAK
Confidence Rating: 75.7%

5. Seahawks

Matchup: vs. BAL
Confidence Rating: 63.6%

T-6. Chiefs

Matchup: @ DEN
Confidence Rating: 60.3%

T-6. Rams

Matchup: @ ATL
Confidence Rating: 60.3%

T-6. Bears

Matchup: @ DEN
Confidence Rating: 60.3%

T-9. Cowboys

Matchup: vs. PHI
Confidence Rating: 58.6%

T-9. Jaguars

Matchup: @ CIN
Confidence Rating: 58.6%

T-9. Giants

Matchup: vs. ARI
Confidence Rating: 58.6%

T-12. Colts

Matchup: vs. HOU
Confidence Rating: 53.5%

T-12. Titans

Matchup: vs. LAC
Confidence Rating: 53.5%

14. Vikings

Matchup: @ DET
Confidence Rating: 51.7%

15. Lions

Matchup: vs. MIN
Confidence Rating: 48.3%

T-16. Chargers

Matchup: @ TEN
Confidence Rating: 46.5%

T-16. Texans

Matchup: @ IND
Confidence Rating: 46.5%

T-18. Cardinals

Matchup: @ NYG
Confidence Rating: 41.4%

T-18. Eagles

Matchup: @ DAL
Confidence Rating: 41.4%

T-18. Bengals

Matchup: vs. JAX
Confidence Rating: 41.4%

T-21. Broncos

Matchup: vs. KC
Confidence Rating: 39.7%

T-21. Falcons

Matchup: vs. LAR
Confidence Rating: 39.7%

T-21. Saints

Matchup: @ CHI
Confidence Rating: 39.7%

24. Ravens

Matchup: @ SEA
Confidence Rating: 36.4%

25. Raiders

Matchup: @ GB
Confidence Rating: 24.3%

26. Jets

Matchup: vs. NE
Confidence Rating: 16.9%

27. Redskins

Matchup: vs. SF
Confidence Rating: 15.9%

28. Dolphins

Matchup: @ BUF
Confidence Rating: 8.9%


Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings


Against the Spread Confidence Ratings

I’ve outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Tuesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.

1. Packers

Spread: -6
Opponent: vs. OAK

T-2. 49ers

Spread: -10
Opponent: @ WAS

T-2. Bengals

Spread: +4
Opponent: vs. JAX

T-2. Dolphins

Spread: +17
Opponent: @ BUF

T-5. Patriots

Spread: -10
Opponent: @ NYJ

T-5. Colts

Spread: PK
Opponent: vs. HOU

T-5. Lions

Spread: +1.5
Opponent: vs. MIN

T-5. Chargers

Spread: +2
Opponent: @ TEN

T-9. Seahawks

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: vs. BAL

T-9. Rams

Spread: -2.5
Opponent: @ ATL

T-9. Cardinals

Spread: +3
Opponent: @ NYG

T-9. Eagles

Spread: +3
Opponent: @ DAL

T-9. Broncos

Spread: +3.5
Opponent: vs. KC

T-9. Saints

Spread: +3.5
Opponent: @ CHI

T-15. Chiefs

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ DEN

T-15. Bears

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: vs. NO

T-15. Cowboys

Spread: -3
Opponent: vs. PHI

T-15. Giants

Spread: -3
Opponent: vs. ARI

T-15. Falcons

Spread: +2.5
Opponent: vs. LAR

T-15. Ravens

Spread: +3.5
Opponent: @ SEA

T-21. Titans

Spread: -2
Opponent: vs. LAC

T-21. Vikings

Spread: -1.5
Opponent: @ DET

T-21. Texans

Spread: PK
Opponent: @ IND

T-21. Jets

Spread: +10
Opponent: vs. NE

T-25. Bills

Spread: -17
Opponent: vs. MIA

T-25. Jaguars

Spread: -4
Opponent: @ CIN

T-25. Redskins

Spread: +10
Opponent: vs. SF

28. Raiders

Spread: +6
Opponent: @ GB


Custom Confidence Ratings

Your league might be using different odds, in which case, you’ll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.

Note that you’ll want to make sure to add the “-” in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column M.

Here’s an example of what the sheet looks like:

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