Best Packers-Seahawks TNF Props: Over/Under 5.5 Total Sacks?

This story is usually part of our EDGE subscription but is free for all to read today!

There are two NFL player prop bets offering value in the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks matchup on Thursday Night Football, which kicks off at 8:20 p.m. ET on Fox/NFL Network.

The Action Network’s public betting data will be used in this data-driven analysis of props. So will the player props tool at FantasyLabs, which takes each prop listed across five of the most popular sportsbooks and leverages them against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in each of the past three seasons.

*All odds as of 2 p.m. ET on Thursday

Packers-Seahawks Total Sacks

The Pick: Under 5.5 (+100)

The Packers' offensive line has been slightly below average at protecting Aaron Rodgers, ranking 19th in Football Outsiders' adjusted sack rate. But the Seahawks are below average at getting after the quarterback, ranking 20th in adjusted sack rate and only 23rd in pressure rate, per Sports Info Solutions.

Rodgers has 34 throw-aways this season while under pressure, which is likely why he's been sacked on only 18.4% of his dropbacks that's he's been pressured on, per Pro Football Focus.

Where this bet becomes tricky is the fact that the Packers' defensive line ranks first in adjusted sack rate while the Seahawks' offensive line ranks 29th. That said, Russell Wilson has been sacked two or fewer times in five of the six games that he has 26 or fewer pass attempts.

The Packers will have very few sack opportunities if the Seahawks can implement their usual run-heavy approach.

Seahawks RB Chris Carson

The Pick: Under 65.5 rushing yards (-115)

Carson (hip) is off the injury report, but head coach Pete Carroll stated in Monday's press conference that Rashaad Penny has earned a bigger role.

With Mike Davis, Carson and Penny all in the mix to see running back reps, the under on Carson's yardage seems like a reasonable bet.