Packers vs 49ers Best Bets | Divisional Round Predictions
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Packers vs 49ers Best Bets | Divisional Round Predictions
It's David vs. Goliath as our staff makes Packers vs 49ers best bets and Divisional Round predictions.
Packers vs 49ers odds have the Packers listed as 10-point road underdogs with an over/under of 50.5 points. One expert is backing the 49ers for a comfortable against the spread win and another likes both teams to go over the listed game total. We also have two player prop picks — both unders — for Packers stars Jordan Love and Aaron Jones.
Click on a pick below to navigate this post.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 8:15 p.m. | ||
| 8:15 p.m. | ||
| 8:15 p.m. | ||
| 8:15 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
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| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +375 |
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -500 |
Packers vs. 49ers
By Stuckey
Green Bay has been awesome of late, but I think the love has gone a bit too far after one game. This is a team that also lost in December on the road to Tommy DeVito. It's still a defense that ranks in the bottom six in both overall and weighted DVOA. The rested 49ers at home still have a much better offense, defense and special teams.
I'm not a huge fan of laying these big numbers in the NFL, especially with Shanahan, who tends to get a bit conservative with leads in the second half of games. And this game will certainly be played at a very slow pace with both offenses operating at a snail's pace.
However, even if he does go that route and go with a much heavier run approach with a lead, that should work just fine against a Green Bay defense that ranked 22nd in Rush EPA.
Ultimately, I just don't see how the Packers will get enough stops to keep this close, while San Francisco's defense should, even if Love continues his recent ridiculous run.
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Packers vs. 49ers
If the entire country wasn’t aware of the quantum leap Jordan Love made midseason, it is after Sunday’s demolition of Dan Quinn’s defense in Dallas. The reality is that Green Bay has been an offensive juggernaut for half the season now. The Packers will now have to take their show back outdoors, but I see no reason why Green Bay can’t move the ball against a San Francisco defense that has a vulnerability against teams that can successfully throw the ball down the field.
Don’t let a few first-half Prescott interceptions trick you into believing that Joe Barry’s defense is anything better than a bottom-eight unit. Barry’s run-defense scheme has been consistently exposed when facing Kyle Shanahan's run offense, and the biggest difference between San Francisco and Dallas is that the 49ers have a very functioning and capable run offense.
While Dallas quickly became one-dimensional on Sunday, the 49ers have a fully healthy Christian McCaffrey and key starters have had two full weeks off. That’s a massive rest advantage for San Francisco given that the Packers defense had to play 89 snaps against Dallas on Sunday. You’ll probably hear that Green Bay had a relatively easy win, and I know most of the Cowboys success came in garbage time with the game long decided, but Dallas still kept Green Bay’s defense on the field and playing against the pass for most of the second half.
The Packers are the youngest team in the NFL and will be playing their fourth road game in five weeks. Each of the past four were must-wins at Carolina, Minnesota, home vs. Chicago and at Dallas.
The 49ers and Packers rank first and third in early down efficiency this season. Green Bay’s offensive line showed last week that it can stifle an elite pass rush. Since Week 7, when Matt LaFleur finally started to trust Love, the Packers quarterback is third in EPA + CPOE composite.
In that same time frame, here's where the 49ers rank defensively:
- Rush EPA: 28th
- Dropback Success Rate: 20th
- Dropback EPA: 17th
- Overall Success Rate: 22nd
The San Francisco defense enters this game quite overvalued and the Packers defense could run out of gas at any moment. As a result, this total sits too low below 51. Much like last week, I expect both offenses to have success. The 49ers will try to play ball control with the ground game, but this version of San Francisco is too explosive to play keep away from Green Bay.
Pick: Over 49.5 (to 50.5)
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Packers vs. 49ers
Aaron Jones has rushed for more than 100 yards in four straight games, but that streak will come to an end Saturday night. Jones has had more than 20 carries in each of those performances, and the Packers were afforded a lead for the majority of those games. No running back managed to reach even 18 carries against the 49ers this season, thus Jones will have to break off explosive runs in the limited amount of opportunities he receives.
On a per-carry basis, the 49ers defense was not elite against the run this season, but given the state of how their offense functions, it is very difficult for their opponents to stick with the running game. The 49ers allowed only 89.7 rush yards per game this season, third fewest in the league. Only one running back reached 70 yards rushing against them this year in a game San Francisco won — James Conner in Week 15, and he had to do it on just 14 rushing attempts. The Packers are likely to face a negative game script Saturday night, and they will have no choice but to rely on Jordan Love's arm to keep them in the game.
Play Jones' rushing yards under down to 67.5.
Pick: Aaron Jones Under 70.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
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Packers vs. 49ers
I get that Jordan Love has been absolutely incredible the second half of the season and this line seems too low considering the way he's been playing, but that's what makes this a great sell-high spot for Love.
The matchup here is not a good one for Love, as the 49ers have been one of the best pass defenses in the league while being a league-average rush defense. Aaron Jones comes into this game in great form, hitting over 110 yards in each of his last four games and averaging over five yards per carry in that span. I expect the Packers to rely heavily on Jones in this spot and for Love to struggle in a tough matchup.
I would hit this line all the way down to 245.5.
Pick: Jordan Love Under 249.5 Passing Yards (-115)
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