Patriots Odds, Win Total, Projected Spreads For Every 2019 Game, More
Photo credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tom Brady
New England Patriots Betting Odds
- Win total: Over 11 (-140)/Under 11 (+120)
- Odds to win the AFC East: -450
- Odds to make the AFC Playoffs: -800
- Odds to win the AFC Championship: +275
- Odds to win the Super Bowl: 6-1
Death. Taxes. Another season of double-digit wins for the Patriots.
What are realistic expectations for Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots in 2019?
I’ve compared their win total to my projections and set early spreads for all 16 of their games below.
Note: All odds via Westgate and as of Friday, August 30.
My Win Total Projection: 11.0
The Patriots are constantly in the top 5-10 for turnover margin, which has been an underappreciated part of their success during the Brady/Belichick dynasty. The model won’t ding them for their +10 margin (fifth overall), as their turnover success was more likely the result of skill than luck, given their history.
So New England gets a pretty straight forward C+ rating with fairly average luck across the board last season. As usual, the Patriots have a cupcake schedule (32nd in SoS) due to the weak AFC East and the fact that they never have to worry about having the Patriots on their schedule.
I am always willing to bet against the Patriots during the regular season, but I typically never invest in them going under their season win total or bet against them going to or winning the Super Bowl. It’s worked out well for me, so I think I’m going to stick with it.
Projected Spreads For Every Game
- Week 1 vs. Steelers: Patriots -6
- Week 2 at Dolphins: Patriots -8.5
- Week 3 vs. Jets: Patriots -9
- Week 4 at Bills: Patriots -5
- Week 5 at Redskins: Patriots -6.5
- Week 6 vs. Giants: Patriots -11.5
- Week 7 at Jets: Patriots -4
- Week 8 vs. Browns: Patriots -6
- Week 9 at Ravens: Patriots -2
- Week 11 at Eagles: Patriots +0.5
- Week 12 vs. Cowboys: Patriots -6.5
- Week 13 at Texans: Patriots -1
- Week 14 vs. Chiefs: Patriots -1.5
- Week 15 at Bengals: Patriots -6.5
- Week 16 vs. Bills: Patriots -10
- Week 17 vs. Dolphins: Patriots -13.5