The Seattle Seahawks host the New England Patriots in the first game of the 2026 NFL season on Wednesday, Sept. 9. Kickoff for this Super Bowl rematch from Lumen Field in Seattle, Was., is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. The NFL Kickoff Game will broadcast live on NBC/Peacock.
The Seahawks are 3.5-point favorites over the Patriots on the spread (Seahawks -3.5), with the over/under set at 44.5 total points. The Seahawks are -180 favorites on the moneyline while the Patriots are +152 underdogs.
Continue below for our Patriots vs Seahawks picks for NFL Week 1, which include predictions for the spread, over/under, and two player props for Drake Maye.
Patriots vs Seahawks Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
  | 8:20 p.m. | |
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| 8:20 p.m. | |
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| 8:20 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Patriots vs Seahawks Odds
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -102 | 44.5 -108o / -112u | +142 |
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -118 | 44.5 -108o / -112u | -170 |
Patriots vs Seahawks Spread Prediction
The dominant play from the front seven of the Seahawks defense was the headline from the Super Bowl played just seven months ago. Drake Maye was sacked six times as rookie left tackle Will Campbell was seemingly exposed in pass protection.
However, many forget that Campbell was battling through a knee injury he suffered late in the regular season that clearly limited his power and anchor to pass protect.
In addition to Campbell returning to full health, fellow rookie Jared Wilson will return to his natural position on the offensive line at center due to the offseason addition of Alijah Vera-Tucker.
Vera-Tucker lost his entire 2025 to an injury but in 2024 he ranked as the 8th-best guard in the NFL, per Pro Football Focus. His presence will assist the Patriots in attacking some unproven commodities in the Seahawks’ secondary.
A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs were brought in to give Maye more options in the passing game and they will pay dividends right away here against a short-handed Seahawks defensive backfield.
I do not expect Nick Emmanwori to play. Nehemiah Pritchett and Josh Jobe will be relied upon at corner, which should tilt the matchup advantage in favor of Josh McDaniel’s Patriots offense — a unit that led the NFL in explosive plays of 20+ yards a season ago.
Lastly, there are unanswered questions surrounding the Seattle offense with Brian Fleury taking over for Klint Kubiak as offensive coordinator. Fleury is a first-time playcaller with a rookie running back (Jadarian Price) leading his backfield into a matchup with the 6th-best run defense in the league from 2025 as the Patriots allowed just 3.9 yards per rush.
In my estimation, this all adds up to a highly competitive season opener that should go down to the wire.
Take the points with the visiting team seeking revenge.
Pick: Patriots +3.5
Patriots vs Seahawks Over/Under Prediction
By Billy Ward
The 2026 NFL season kicks off with a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl, a game that concluded with a 29-13 Seahawks win. Oddsmakers and the public have kept the total for this year’s redo in a similar neighborhood, with a consensus number of 44.5.
On the one hand, that number seems low given that both teams finished in the top-10 in Offensive DVOA last season. Of course, they were also both top-three defenses by points allowed, so there’s a case in both directions.
The Patriots offense largely resembles their 2025 unit – with the considerable exception of adding A.J. Brown in the offseason. New England lacked a true star wideout last year, and while Brown may be on the tail end of his prime, he’s still a massive upgrade for the Patriots' receiving corps.
Seattle was extremely tough on wide receivers last season, but at a minimum, Brown should draw enough attention to open up the run game and/or underneath passing looks for Drake Maye.
The Seattle offense has more questions.
The Seahawks were an extremely efficient passing offense, but ranked third in rushing play percentage last season. It’s unfair to assume they can maintain that efficiency with an uptick in volume, but they may be forced into throwing more.
Seattle let Kenneth Walker … walk(pun intended) in the offseason and Zach Charbonnet is banged up, leaving them reliant on rookie Jadarian Price in his first NFL game.
The Seahawks also have a new offensive coordinator after Klint Kubiak took the Raiders' head coaching job, with newcomer Brian Fleury being somewhat of an unknown. It’s a fairly safe bet that Seattle throws more this season, but how much more (and how well) is harder to tell.
The tiebreaker for me here comes in the trenches.
Our Brandon Anderson has both teams somewhat improved from last year in his 2026 rankings, thanks to continuity from the Seahawks and some projected improvement from young Patriot starters.
The Patriots allowing six sacks and three turnovers in the Super Bowl hampered their offense, and even a slight improvement there should help push this game over.
Pick: Over 44.5 (bet to -118)
Patriots vs Seahawks 1st Half Over/Under Pick
The NFL is back! We made it! We finally get to watch real, meaningful football … hopefully!
I worry that it could be a slow start in Seattle to open the season.
The last time we saw a real NFL game it was these same two teams, of course, but neither Sam Darnold nor Drake Maye took a single snap this preseason. We've seen in recent years how that can make the season opener something of a preseason game with key players shaking off the rest and finding their ways.
Totals are often suppressed in Week 1 since defenses are a bit readier for the new season while offenses try to find their rhythm and settle back in. And besides, we mustn't forget what happened the last time these teams played.
The Super Bowl saw just 12 points total until a 30-point fourth quarter explosion, and the Patriots offense in particular could do absolutely nothing for those first three quarters.
The first eight New England drives outside of a halftime kneel down ended in punts. The first 38 Patriots plays resulted in 68 yards, under two yards a play including five three-and-outs.
The Patriots' offensive line got completely worked in that game, and I wonder if we might see that action go both ways in the rematch.
New England's line is still no match for Mike Macdonald's aggressive attack in the trenches, but Seattle's interior line could also struggle against the Patriots. Both defenses should have the advantage over both offenses.
Maybe that changes late like it did in the Super Bowl, once the offenses shake off the rust and settle in, but this could be a slow, conservative start as both teams work to establish the run and settle into the new season.
Week 1 unders with a total from 41-to-41.5 are 94-56-1 (63%) over the past couple decades. I'll play just the first-half angle and hope we get a more exciting finish than start to the game.
Pick: 1st Half Under 22.5 (-110)
Drake Maye Player Props: Pass Attempts
This line is a little high given the spot.
Drake Maye passed 43 times in last season's Super Bowl, but a large portion of those passes came late when the Patriots were in a trailing script.
With the addition of A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs, Maye gets the best pass-catchers of his career — but this is a tough spot.
Playing in Seattle is daunting, and the Seahawks have one of toughest pass defenses in the league. Both teams are likely going to be slow and methodical in this game, and there will likely be a heavy dose of the run game on the Seahawks side against this tough Pats secondary, which should eat up the clock.
Add in Maye's tendency to use his legs to gain yards and the tough Seahawks pass rush, and I have this number closer to 31.
Pick: Drake Maye Under 32.5 Pass Attempts (-115)
Drake Maye Anytime TD Scorer
By Grant Neiffer
This price on Polymarket is a bit too high given how good of a runner Maye is.
Maye scrambled at a high rate last season and had 5 TDs in 21 games (which includes the playoffs). He's always a threat to score with his legs in the red zone, and the Seahawks' great pass rush will likely force him to scramble more.
Our Anytime Touchdown guru Gilles Gallant is also on Maye to score tonight.
Trade: Drake Maye Anytime Touchdown Scorer — YES (18¢) ; $100 trade wins $529.50
