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49ers-Rams Betting Preview: Trends, Systems Point to Clear Value

Dec 28, 2018 2:08 AM EST
Credit:

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle (85), Los Angeles Rams cornerback Marcus Peters (22).

Betting odds: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

  • Spread: Rams -10
  • Over/Under: 48.5
  • Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: While 63% of bets are laying the points with the Rams, 52% of dollars wagered on the spread have taken the 49ers, kicking the line down from the opener of 10.5 to 10.

Money is also flowing on the under, pushing the total from 50.5 to 48.5 (see live data here). — PJ Walsh

Trends to know: Division games tend to be low-scoring due to increased familiarity with opponents.

It has been profitable to bet the under in division matchups with high totals (44.5 or more points) that take place later in the season (Week 11-17).

Rams-49ers is a match for this Bet Labs system. — John Ewing

The Rams are coming off an impressive performance on the road against the Cardinals, shutting down Arizona, and covering the lofty 14.5-point spread.

LA is one of three teams this season averaging at least 30 points per game, with all three headed to the playoffs (Saints and Chiefs).

The Rams are the only one of those three teams to cover the spread last week. Since 2003, teams that average at least 30 PPG in December or later, and covered the spread in their previous game, are 29-48-2 ATS (37.7%) the following week, losing bettors 20.1 units. — Evan Abrams

Playoff picture: The Rams cannot improve upon their current No. 2 seed in the NFC, but a loss and a Chicago win at Minnesota would cost LA a first-round bye and move it down to the 3-seed.

The Rams have a 90% chance chance to retain the 2-seed in Week 17, according to our simulations. –Scott T. Miller

Draft order: The 49ers look like they will either land the No. 2 or 3 overall pick in the 2018 draft, assuming they lose to the Rams.

If San Fran beats LA and both the Jets and Raiders lose as double-digit favorites, could potentially move down to the fifth pick. –Scott T. Miller

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