49ers-Rams Betting Preview: Trends, Systems Point to Clear Value

49ers-Rams Betting Preview: Trends, Systems Point to Clear Value article feature image
Credit:

Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle (85), Los Angeles Rams cornerback Marcus Peters (22).

Betting odds: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

  • Spread: Rams -10
  • Over/Under: 48.5
  • Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: While 63% of bets are laying the points with the Rams, 52% of dollars wagered on the spread have taken the 49ers, kicking the line down from the opener of 10.5 to 10.

Money is also flowing on the under, pushing the total from 50.5 to 48.5 (see live data here). — PJ Walsh

Trends to know: Division games tend to be low-scoring due to increased familiarity with opponents.

It has been profitable to bet the under in division matchups with high totals (44.5 or more points) that take place later in the season (Week 11-17).

Rams-49ers is a match for this Bet Labs system. — John Ewing

The Rams are coming off an impressive performance on the road against the Cardinals, shutting down Arizona, and covering the lofty 14.5-point spread.

LA is one of three teams this season averaging at least 30 points per game, with all three headed to the playoffs (Saints and Chiefs).

The Rams are the only one of those three teams to cover the spread last week. Since 2003, teams that average at least 30 PPG in December or later, and covered the spread in their previous game, are 29-48-2 ATS (37.7%) the following week, losing bettors 20.1 units. — Evan Abrams

Playoff picture: The Rams cannot improve upon their current No. 2 seed in the NFC, but a loss and a Chicago win at Minnesota would cost LA a first-round bye and move it down to the 3-seed.

The Rams have a 90% chance chance to retain the 2-seed in Week 17, according to our simulations. –Scott T. Miller

Draft order: The 49ers look like they will either land the No. 2 or 3 overall pick in the 2018 draft, assuming they lose to the Rams.

If San Fran beats LA and both the Jets and Raiders lose as double-digit favorites, could potentially move down to the fifth pick. –Scott T. Miller

Biggest mismatch: Rams pass rush vs. QB Nick Mullens

The 49ers’ offensive line, which ranks 22nd in adjusted sack rate will have its hands full against the Rams’ absurd pass rush.

Overall, the Rams lead the league with a 38.14% pressure rate, and Mullens has struggled when under pressure this season compiling a woeful 50% completion rate, 4.8 yards per attempt and passer rating of just 54.3, per Sports Info Solutions. — Justin Bailey

Which team is healthier? Rams

Neither team will be resting its starters in this one. However, Todd Gurley (knee) is still considered day-to-day and failed to practice on either Wednesday or Thursday.

The Rams are otherwise healthy with the only exceptions being safety Lamarcus Joyner (ankle) and backup running back Justin Davis (shoulder).

Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

The 49ers have already ruled out Matt Breida (knee) and Dante Pettis (knee), while Marquise Goodwin (calf) is also banged up.

The defense could be without cornerback K’Waun Williams (knee) along with linebackers Malcolm Smith (Achilles) and Mark Nzeocha (groin) in addition to safety Jaquiski Tartt (shoulder).

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: George Kittle is seeing 30.5% of the 49ers’ target share over the past six weeks, and he confirmed he’s gunning for the tight end receiving record of 1,327 yards.

Kittle has 1,228 yards and needs just 100 yards to break it. Kittle is the only tight end in our FantasyLabs Player Models who has comparable projections to Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce, and he’s priced cheaper than all of them on both DraftKings and FanDuel. — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: 49ers +10

The Rams want to win this game, but I don’t care. Historical trends say the 49ers are the right way to go so that’s where I’m putting my money.

I have two systems in Bet Labs that both include the final three weeks of the season. One is called Pythagorean under-performers and the other is called fade Pythagorean over-performers. The Niners fit both.

Basically, based on point differentials, the 49ers should have a better record than they do and the Rams should have a worse record than they do.

The under-performers system has hit at a 59% rate against the spread since 2005, while the over performers fade system has hit at a 64.4% rate. Good enough for me. — Mark Gallant


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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