The Seattle Seahawks (16-3) and New England Patriots (17-3) face off in Super Bowl 60 on Sunday. Feb. 8. Kickoff is set for 6:30 p.m. ET from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif. The game will broadcast on NBC and Peacock.
The Seahawks are 4.5-point favorites on the spread, with the over/under set at 45.5 points. The Seahawks are -240 favorites to win outright on the moneyline, while the Patriots are +195 to pull off the upset.
Below, you can find my Super Bowl 60 preview and Seahawks vs Patriots predictions.
Seahawks vs Patriots Prediction
- Seahawks vs Patriots pick: Under 45.5 (to 45)
My Seahawks vs Patriots best bet is Under 45.5. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Seahawks vs Patriots Odds
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -115 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -240 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -105 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +195 |
Seahawks vs Patriots Super Bowl Preview
Seattle Seahawks Betting Preview: No Stopping Smith-Njigba
Note: All data via FTN unless otherwise noted.
For just the third time in the past decade and first time since 2017, when Bill Belichick's Patriots faced Dan Quinn's Falcons in Super Bowl LI, the Super Bowl features a matchup of two defensive-minded head coaches in Seattle's Mike McDonald and New England's Mike Vrabel.
Not coincidentally, both defenses project to have the edge in this matchup.
The Patriots made what turned out to be the most impactful defensive free-agent signing of the 2025 offseason when they gave $63 million guaranteed to former Eagles defensive tackle Milton Williams, who will be making the third Super Bowl appearance of his five-year career.
Williams missed five games this season, but whenever he's been healthy, the Patriots have simply erased opposing run games.
Below are their splits in their 15 games with Williams (listed first) versus the five without (listed second), along with where those marks would rank over a full season.
- Carries/Game: 22.1 (2nd) vs. 29.6 (27th)
- Rush Yards/Game: 80.6 (1st) vs. 146.8 (31st)
- Yards Per Carry: 3.65 (1st) vs 4.96 (28th)
- Rush TD/Game: 0.27 (1st) vs. 1.40 (30th)
- Rush TD Rate: 1.2% (1st) vs. 4.7% (30th)
- Expected Points Added/Rush: -0.120 (2nd) vs. 0.051 (28th)
- Defensive Rushing DVOA: -19.2% (3rd) vs. 3.5% (28th)
- Explosive Rush Rate: 8.5% (3rd), 12.2% (24th)
The Seahawks have increasingly leaned on their run game down the stretch — Kenneth Walker averaging 16.0 carries for 85.2 yards (5.3 YPC) and 1.0 TDs per game over the last five, including 38 carries for 178 yards and 4 scores this postseason — but they may not have much success in this matchup.
Seahawks offensive coordinator (and future Raiders head coach) Klint Kubiak typically like to use Walker on either outside-zone concepts (42.1%, 5.3 YPC) or man-blocking concepts (29.4%, 4.0 YPC), but with Williams in the lineup, the Patriots allow just 3.0 YPC against outside zone and 2.6 YPC against man, both of which would rank first in the NFL over the full season.
Patriots opponents called designed rushes just 34.6% of the time in games Williams was active compared to 46.8% in games he missed, and the Seahawks are likely to follow suit.
Kubiak won't want to risk Sam Darnold in too many third-and-long situations, where among 39 qualified passers he ranks 35th in Expected Points Added Per Dropback (EPA/DB) at -0.316 and 36th in Yards Per Pass Attempt (YPA) at 5.6. In third-and-medium/short situations, Darnold jumps to fourth in EPA/DB (0.380) and first in YPA (9.4). Defensively, the Patriots drop from second in EPA/DB on third-and-long (-0.373) to ninth in third-and-medium/short (-0.245).
Is Darnold capable of carrying the offense?
The numbers suggest he can.
On early downs with the score within one possession, Darnold ranks second in YPA (8.4) and eighth in EPA/DB (0.142) among 39 qualifiers. The Patriots have been middling in these situations, ranking 16th in YPA (6.8) and 18th in EPA/DB (0.022), though they would bump up to above-average territory when filtering for only the 12 games in which Williams and No. 1 cornerback Christian Gonzalez were both active, ranking ninth in YPA (6.3) and 14th in EPA/DB (-0.033).
But this is Sam Darnold we're talking about, so there are reasons for pause as well:
- Blitz: The Patriots blitzed at the 14th-highest rate on the season (30.0%), but that climbs to sixth (38.3%) in their seven games since the bye. Darnold goes from third in EPA/DB when not blitzed (0.213) to 13th when blitzed (0.088), and from 12th in interception rate when not blitzed (1.6%) to 36th when blitzed (4.9%).
- Play-action: Darnold is at his best when he is able to rely on play-action. He is sixth in play-action rate (25.5%) and second in EPA/DB on play-action (0.436), but 13th in EPA/DB with no play-action (0.086). The Patriots led the NFL in EPA/DB against play-action (-0.241) and face it at the 17th-highest rate (22.5%).
Darnold will still be throwing to the best player on the field in Jaxon Smith-Njigba against a Patriots defense that ranked 31st in DVOA versus No. 1 receivers.
While the Patriots have limited volume to opposing WR1s, Smith-Njigba is a different beast — he led the NFL with a 35.2% target share. I expect the Patriots to mix up coverages on Smith-Njigba — using Christian Gonzalez to follow him at times, and using Carlton Davis III and a safety over the top at others, but Smith-Njigba can line up out wide, in the slot, and even in the backfield (where he caught his most recent TD).
The only game in which Smith-NJigba failed to post at least 70 yards and/or a TD was a 26-0 blowout win against Minnesota in which Vikings rookie quarterback Max Brosmer essentially gave the Seahawks offense the day off, gifting Seattle an early pick-six while averaging 2.6 net yards per pass.
New England Patriots Betting Preview: Tall Task for Maye
The Seahawks have the No. 1 defense by DVOA overall, and versus both the pass and run. This is a problem for the Patriots, who are averaging only 21.5 points per game against top-10 defenses compared to 28.6 against non-top-10 units.
NFL MVP runner-up Drake Maye has struggled against the league's best defenses, which tend to speed up his processing, forcing him into quicker decisions and negative plays.
- EPA/DB: 0.065 (vs. top-10) vs. 0.291 (vs. non-top-10)
- Pass Success Rate: 48.5% vs. 59.0%
- Completion Pct.: 60.4% vs. 71.8%
- Interception Rate: 3.0% vs. 1.5%
- Sack Rate: 15.6% vs. 7.2%
- Pressure-to-Sack Rate: 58.3% vs. 23.1%
- Time to Throw: 2.55 vs. 2.82
- Scramble Yards/Game: 44.5 vs. 23.6
When extending plays, top defenses have been able to make Maye more one-dimensional, relying more on scrambles while not being able to get the ball off downfield.
The Seahawks should be able to execute this game plan to a tee, as they rank seventh in pressure rate (32.5%) despite blitzing at the fifth-lowest rate (23.5%). They do, however, force opposing passers to scramble at the sixth-highest rate (6.5%).
It's hard to find a plus matchup for New England in the receiving game. The Seahawks rank first in DVOA vs. WR1s, sixth vs. WR2s, 13th vs. WR3+, and sixth vs. RBs.
Seattle typically funnels targets to tight ends (16th in DVOA), but with two weeks to prepare and a plethora of safeties and linebackers at his disposal, I'm expecting McDonald to have some wrinkles in store to limit Hunter Henry. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a trick play or two from deep in the bag of Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.
The key to Seattle's defense is its four quality safeties.
Among 91 qualified safeties at PFF, Seattle has three that grade out in the top 20 — Julian Love (third), Nick Emmanwori (17th), Ty Okada (20th) — while Coby Bryant ranks a solid 38th. The rookie Emmanwori is a Kyle Hamilton-esque movable chess piece who can play nickel, box safety, linebacker, and edge rusher, helping the Seahawks maintain an elite run defense despite keeping 5-6 defensive backs on the field almost at all times — and rarely stacking the box to boot (28.3%, 31st).
Veteran RB Rhamondre Stevenson has been on a role since the bye, racking up 80 carries for 473 yards (5.9 YPC) and 4 TDs in seven games since New England's Week 14 bye, but the 27-year-old, fifth-year pro has struggled against top-10 run defenses in DVOA:
- Stevenson vs. top-10 (6 games): 80 car, 262 yd, 3.3 YPC, 1 TD, 1.3% TD rate, -0.316 EPA/Rush, 30.0% Success Rate
- Stevenson vs. non-top-10 (11 games): 101 car, 535 yd, 5.3 YPC, 6 TD, 5.9% TD rate, -0.032 EPA/Rush, 40.6% Success Rate
With the Seahawks more likely than not to rush four most of the time, I'd expect we see a bit more of TreVeyon Henderson today than the AFC Championship Game (4 snaps). The rookie gives the Patriots a big-play element on the ground but is a screaming liability in pass protection.
Seahawks vs Patriots Prediction, Betting Analysis
I'm expecting both teams to struggle to generate consistent offense due to inconsistencies in the run game.
Sam Darnold and the Seahawks aren't nearly as efficient when their rushing attack and play-action game is limited, both of which the Patriots are excellent at limiting.
The Patriots have a quarterback in Drake Maye with otherworldly upside, but his youth and inexperience has tended to show against elite defenses, with Seattle being the best he'ff face to date, which could lead to not only inefficiency, but a conservative game plan.
Pick: Under 45.5
Seahawks vs Patriots Player Props
Drake Maye Rushing Yards
I've been saying it for over a week now: I think Maye will have to carry the Patriots in this game so his rushing ability should be on display. There are also a couple of trends that point me in this direction, but let's just look at the matchups on the field.
On the outside, New England has two lower-volume, low-targets-per-route guys and Mack Hollins, who has been a good receiver this year, but the Patriots like him more as a run blocker. Then you have Kayshon Boutte on the other side. No receiver in New England is a slam dunk. Stefon Diggs is going up against the Seahawks' best corner or their best defender, period — and I've already mentioned above that Seattle excels at defending WR1s.
Down the stretch, the Patriots have made Maye a big part of the designed run game, and that might be essential here because the Seahawks have been really good against the run.
I actually think the Pats might have the better run defense with Milton Williams healthy, but Seattle is historically good by numbers alone. They’re the best in run defense DVOA.
However, Maye will just have to run the ball. If you look at what the Pats did before the bye (Week 14), they had 1.1 designed runs per game, excluding kneel downs. After the bye, it went up to 2.0 designed runs per game. And you could tell that they started calling more options, end around, sweeps and things like that, not just quarterback sneaks.
After the bye, Maye had 4.3 designed yards per carry, just like a normal rusher there. Not only that, but he wasn't going down as quickly when he was scrambling over these last seven games. Before the bye, he had 6.6 yards per scramble, and then 10.8 after it.
Also, as I mentioned when i broke down the AFC Championshp Game, the young guys on the offensive line — Will Campbell and Jared Wilson — might have promising futures, but they've been shaky down the stretch. Maye has actually been sacked at a higher rate with both of those guys in the lineup.
From Weeks 1-12 and then from 19-21, when Campbell and Wilson both played, Maye had a 10.7% sack rate and a 10.4% scramble rate. In the weeks where either one or both missed, his sack rate was 6.8%, and the scramble rate was 8.7. So when those guys are in, there tends to be more pressure, more issues, more Maye running for his life.
New England is 29th in pressure against rushes with four men or fewer, and Seattle is fourth in pressure when they do not blitz. I think Seattle will get there without having to blitz, and that will force Maye out of the pocket.
All of this leads me to go over on Drake Maye's rushing yardage. I don't mind his attempts either, but I believe yardage is the best way to play it.
Pick: Drake Maye Over 35.5 Rushing Yards; bet to 37.5
Note: I have over a dozen prop bets on this game and counting already tracked and blurbed in the Action App, so follow me there for more plays and parlays options, etc.
Spread
Both defenses project for the upperhand in nearly every facet. That said, I lean Seahawks because Jaxon Smith-Njigba is an otherworldly talent who will be tough to consistently stopped compared to Drake Maye, whose ceiling comes with more potential for mistakes in a game with little margin for error.
The Seahawks also have the edge in special teams (first in DVOA, Patriots 20th), particularly at kicker and kickoff return, which could play a major role in a game like this.
Ultimately, though, Mike Vrabel is the equalizer, and Darnold has a similarly low floor to Maye (with a lower ceiling), so it's tough to feel fully confident in Seattle.
I'd still prefer laying the points with Seattle to the moneyline. The Seahawks are more likely to win by margin; they could get big games from Smith-Njigba, special teams score from Rashid Shaheed and/or their defense capitalizing on a Maye mistake.
Moneyline
As I mentioned, above, I'd rather take the points with the Seahawks than pay the expensive price of their moneyline.
Over/Under
I detailed above why under 45.5 is my main pick for this game.
