For every week of the NFL season, I break down the NFL anytime touchdown market for every game. I identify the players you should consider betting on and whether the anytime TD odds are worth the investment.
For one final time this season, I'm here to break down the NFL anytime touchdown scorers market for Super Bowl 60, featuring the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots.
Below is my Super Bowl anytime TD scorer analysis on 12 players who will be suiting up on Super Bowl Sunday at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif.
Super Bowl Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Drake Maye Anytime TD (+300)
This is my favorite TD bet of Super Bowl 60.
Drake Maye scored in the AFC Championship game vs. the Broncos, and he led the NFL in total scrambles and was second in scrambles per game behind Patrick Mahomes.
Maye’s scramble rate also tended to see a jump when not being blitzed, and the Seahawks were in the bottom-five in blitz rate per game this season.
If the Patriots get down by a couple of scores, I think this unlocks Maye to go into scramble mode.
Sam Darnold Anytime TD (+900)
If there were ever a game where Sam Darnold would finally use his legs to scramble, it has to be this one.
There are a couple of reasons why we're getting +900, and it’s because he averaged just over two carries per game, with a lot of those being kneeldowns.
Darnold also hasn’t had to scramble much this season because the Seahawks run game has been so efficient.
Darnold, however, may be low-key dealing with an oblique injury, and while it seems to be an afterthought, the Seahawks cannot afford to lose him on a reckless scramble.
I’m showing value on his TD prop, but just know that Darnold isn’t the short-yardage tush-push option either, with tight end AJ Barner claiming that role this year.
Bet on it, but tread lightly.
Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD (+155)
If you don’t love the value of a Drake Maye Anytime TD at this stage, I would tell you to pivot to RB Rhamondre Stevenson.
He’s the Patriots' clear RB1 with 51 carries in three games compared to TreVeyon Henderson only getting 24.
Stevenson has also been a fixture in the passing game with eight targets in three playoff games, so getting an RB1 at +150 or better is decent value.
Kenneth Walker III Anytime TD (-190)
We've arrived on the betting favorite to score a TD in Super Bowl 60.
It’s a pretty hefty price tag for Kenneth Walker's Anytime TD at -190. However, the price lines up with the production because once RB Zach Charbonnet went down, Walker took over the backfield completely.
The only problem is paying that price against the Patriots, whose strength is defending the run with Milton Williams back.
You’d probably be better served betting on multiple TDs or the First TD for Walker — but this is the Super Bowl, so those odds have already been steamed.
My guy Chris Raybon is actually fading Walker and bet his “No TD” prop at +150.
TreVeyon Henderson Anytime TD (+500)
If I’m betting TreVeyon Henderson for a TD, then it’s likely only to take advantage of the “King of the End Zone” promo from DraftKings, as Henderson is easily one of the most explosive players on either team and will likely see less investment by the betting public, so less money to share of the total payout of the KOTEZ promo.
The issue is Henderson’s rush attempts continue to trend downward while the Pats lean heavily on Rhamondre Stevenson, but I theorize that head coach Mike Vrabel might try to get creative with ways to get Henderson on the field to take advantage of his athleticism, like in the return game or even with short quick screen passes to see if he can find a lane and break a tackle.
According to our Action Pro TD Odds Projections, Henderson’s odds at +500 to score a TD are showing the most value of any player to score for Super Bowl 60, with fair odds closer to +385.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime TD (-105)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba isn’t my favorite bet to score a touchdown in this game. However, if betting odds didn’t exist and you asked me blindly who would score in Super Bowl 60, JSN would be my first pick.
Although defenses know Smith-Njigba is the top receiving option in this offense, it hasn’t really mattered because he’s so elusive and effective with his routes that he finds ways to get open.
Through two playoff games, JSN holds a 30% target share, which is consistent with what we saw during the regular season, when it was 32%.
Coupled with the Patriots playing a lot of man coverage and ranking 31st in defensive DVOA vs WR1, I think JSN will be 10+ targets again in Super Bowl 60.
Stefon Diggs Anytime TD (+250)
It was hard to pinpoint who the WR1 in the Patriots offense was during the regular season, but once the playoffs hit, it was pretty clear it's Stefon Diggs.
The Pats kept Diggs in bubble wrap during the regular season and were using him more situationally near the goal line, but this is a matchup where I’ll likely avoid him.
Although he led the team in target share vs. zone coverages this season, he didn’t score any touchdowns against zone defense and will likely see a lot of All-Pro CB Devon Witherspoon.
Unless he’s +300 or better, I’d avoid Diggs in this spot.
Rashid Shaheed Anytime TD (+375)
This is my pick for the “King of the End Zone” promotion with DraftKings.
There are really only two circumstances where Rashid Shaheed is more likely to score. One, he gets a deep pass, beating man coverage for a long receiving TD. Two, he takes one to the house on a kick return, as he did on the opening kickoff against the 49ers in the Divisional Round.
There’s also the wild-card third option where he takes a run out of the backfield for a score.
Those options seem fine by me, but unless you’re doing a fun promo like KOTEZ, I wouldn’t bet on a Shaheed TD without it since the Seahawks rarely spread the ball around in the passing game.
Kayshon Boutte Anytime TD (+330)
I’d need at least +350 to bet on Patriots wide receiver Kayshon Boutte to score a touchdown in Super Bowl 60.
The Patriots' standout WR has had some ups and downs in these playoffs, with a highlight TD catch on All-Pro CB Derek Stingley Jr., but also a game vs. the Broncos in which he had only one catch on six targets.
Between Diggs and Boutte, I’d much rather bet on Boutte to score, as I think he’ll see less of CB Devon Witherspoon in this matchup.
Nevertheless, since neither shows much value at this stage, I’d pass on both.
Cooper Kupp Anytime TD (+275)
I get the sentimental value of wanting to bet on Seahawks WR Cooper Kupp to get a touchdown because at one point in his career, he was -130 to score in a Super Bowl.
However, that was five years ago, and a lot has changed. Even though he was able to exact some revenge against his former team in the NFC Championship Game, the TD odds for Kupp are gross for SB 60.
With how much target share Jaxon Smith-Njigba already commands and the implied team total of the Seahawks, Kupp’s TD odds should be closer to +330 for fair value.
AJ Barner Anytime TD (+250)
One of the few Seahawks I’m showing value on to score a TD is AJ Barner, who may as well be the WR2 in this offense with how many routes he’s run.
Now, he’s been a bit of a “Cardio King,” given that he’s seen three total targets in two playoff games, but it’s encouraging that two of those targets were in the red zone and one was an end-zone target.
After scoring six receiving TDs and a rushing TD this year, his touchdown odds should be closer to +220, especially since he’s being utilized over Kenneth Walker and Sam Darnold as the “tush-push” option in this offense.
Hunter Henry Anytime TD (+235)
The Patriots' TE1 may arguably have the best matchup of any NE pass-catcher, but the TD value for Hunter Henry at +235 isn’t great.
Our Action Pro TD projections have his fair odds closer to +300 to score a touchdown, so you'll have to overlook his price if you want to bet on him.
Still, the Seahawks defense has had issues defending tight ends this season, ranking 16th vs the position compared to top-five everywhere else.
Rookie safety Nick Emmanwori also had an injury in practice this week, which could open things up for Henry over the middle as the rookie was likely to matchup with him on certain key downs.
