Like most major awards in the NFL, Super Bowl MVP tends to be a quarterback award — the honor has gone to a quarterback 34 times, including 14 of the last 19 Super Bowls.
Naturally, it's no surprise to see Sam Darnold and Drake Maye atop the Super Bowl MVP odds board for Seahawks vs Patriots.
Our experts are zagging from the quarterback trend — discover the five players they think could win Super Bowl MVP and why below.
Super Bowl MVP Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Sam Darnold (SEA) | +120 |
| Drake Maye (NE) | +240 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | +500 |
| Kenneth Walker (SEA) | +850 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | +2800 |
| Rashid Shaheed (SEA) | +3000 |
| Stefon Diggs (NE) | +5000 |
| Marcus Jones (NE) | +6000 |
| TreVeyon Henderson (NE) | +7500 |
| Cooper Kupp (SEA) | +9000 |
| Kayshon Boutte (NE) | +11000 |
| AJ Barner (SEA) | +12000 |
Odds via DraftKings
Super Bowl MVP Predictions
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+500)
By Evan Abrams
If you like the Seahawks to win Super Bowl 60, I think Jaxon Smith-Njigba holds the best value to win MVP.
He was at 6-1 for most of the two weeks leading up to Super Bowl Sunday; he's at +500 now, which is the second-lowest SB MVP price for a WR since 2003, behind only Larry Fitzgerald at +400 back in 2008.
The why for JSN is just how much of the offense he is involved in.
Smith-Njigba had 44% of the Seahawks receiving yards during the regular season. That is the highest mark for any team in the Super Bowl over the last 50 years. The closest was Michael Irvin at 42.8% in 1995 for the Cowboys, who ended up winning it all.
One last note: the Patriots haven’t been fantastic vs. WR1s (31st in DVOA). Courtland Sutton scored a TD in the AFC Championship Game while Jayden Higgins had 10 targets for 59 yds on 6 receptions without Nico Collins in the Divisional Round.
There is a prop on JSN to score 1st TD and win SB MVP at 25-1, which is worth a nibble.
Quickly, on the Patriots side, I would take a bit of a longshot on Drake Maye to win SB MVP and him to score an anytime TD, priced at 10-1 odds.
You could focus on Maye, but it’s the Seattle defense vs. mobile QBs. The Seahawks have allowed the 2nd-most QB scramble yards (5.3 yards/carry), including 8.1 in playoffs.
I've recommended Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a Super Bowl MVP bet thrice already — before the NFL playoffs started at +2800, again at +1500 heading into the NFC Championship Game and once more before Super Bowl 60.
quarterback is the default for Super Bowl MVP. The award has gone to a QB 34 times (58%), including 14 of the last 19 Super Bowls (74%).
If the Patriots win, Drake Maye is rightfully a heavy favorite to win MVP. But could Smith-Njigba steal it from Sam Darnold?
The Patriots play the ninth-most man coverage in the league — elite receivers like JSN are almost always good enough to beat even the best man coverage.
Darnold ranks third in EPA per play against man, far better than he is against zone, and Smith-Njigba absolutely destroys man coverage. He finished third in the NFL in yards versus man and posted an absurd 4.16 yards per route run against man, which was the best mark in the league.
Smith-Njigba was responsible for 44% of Darnold's passing yards this season and 40% of his passing touchdowns. What's more impressive: 260 yards and two touchdowns as a passer, or 8/130 and a TD as a receiver?
By Chris Raybon
In case you're not already convinced by my colleagues Brandon and Evan, here's another case for JSN:
If the Seahawks win and everyone lands around their median outcome, Smith-Njigba wins (possibly even without a TD if game is low-scoring enough.
Prop-implied stat lines:
- JSN: 7 receptions, 93 yards, TD
- Darnold: 20-for-29, 228 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
JSN projects to account for ~40% of Darnold’s pass yardage.
Any Defensive Player to Win MVP (+1500)
By Brandon Anderson
We've seen 10 defensive players win MVP. Two of them won it as co-MVPs, but even so, that's nine defensive MVPs in 59 Super Bowls or 15.3%. That's more than once every seven Super Bowls!
In fact, would you believe more defenders have won Super Bowl MVP than receivers or running backs?
That fact might encourage you to sprinkle on one of the game's defensive stars as an unlikely MVP pick.
Again, it can be wise to just keep things simple. There are 11 defensive starters on each team and a plethora of other defenders that will also see the field in relief.
We can bet any defensive player to win Super Bowl MVP at +1500 at theScore. That's 6.3% implied, giving us over 2.4x value on the historical odds of a defensive MVP.
Rhamondre Stevenson (+3000)
The more time I have spent analyzing this game the stronger my lean to the under has become. A low-scoring affair would be more conducive to the underdog Patriots covering the number in this game and it would increase the chances of a non-quarterback winning Super Bowl MVP.
While the Seahawks should come out victorious, if they do not, the New England skill players become truly incredible value plays to win MVP award. The best value of them all is currently Patriots’ running back Rhamondre Stevenson.
Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker is priced by oddsmakers as having a nearly four times greater chance to win MVP than Stevenson — that is simply too large of a gap between the two main runners in this game.
It is also clear Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels have their trust in Stevenson leading this backfield. He played more than 90% of the team's snaps in the AFC Championship Game and handled the short-yardage situations.
Stevenson is priced around the +900 to +1100 range to score two touchdowns, implying an approximate 10% chance to hit paydirt multiple times, yet his Super Bowl MVP number is implying only a 3% chance to come to fruition.
Drake Maye is not playing his best football — only completing 32% of his throws down the field in the playoffs thus far — and finds himself in another difficult matchup.
A closely contested game will allow the Patriots to stick to the run for the duration of the game. In a game that may see around only 40 points scored, a modest statline from the key cog in either offense may steal the MVP award from the quarterback. I will take my chances with the best value on the board.
Cooper Kupp (+10000)
By Kyle Murray
I already like Cooper Kupp to go over 32.5 receiving yards, and I'll take it a bit further by sprinkling him to win Super Bowl MVP.
While he's not the same player from his Rams days, Kupp has been a factor in the NFL playoffs with nine receptions (on 11 targets) for 96 yards and a touchdown. Amongst Seahawks pass-catchers, he's probably the second- or third-most reliable option for Sam Darnold.
Kupp may have alternative routes to touchdowns — he's one of three players to attempt a pass for the Seahawks this season.
We've seen some crazy things in the Super Bowl; it's easy to envision offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak scheming up unique plays that involve Kupp.
AJ Barner (+12500)
By Sean Koerner
No tight end has ever won Super Bowl MVP and AJ Barner doesn't exactly have the profile of someone who's going to buck the trend — his receiving yards prop is only 24.5 yards!
That said, Barner has a unique path to at least a compelling case.
His peak stat line this season came against the Rams in Week 11, when he caught 10-of-11 targets for 70 yards. He'd need to put up a similar line here in addition to a couple of touchdowns, which is possible through the air in addition to the tush push.
In a low-scoring game, that could be enough to give Barner a shot and that makes him worth a flyer.
