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Steelers vs Browns Picks: 3 Best Bets for Thursday Night Football

Steelers vs Browns Picks: 3 Best Bets for Thursday Night Football article feature image
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Getty Images. Pictured: Kareem Hunt (left), Najee Harris (center) and Nick Chubb.

  • The Browns are favored over the Steelers on Thursday Night Football.
  • With windy conditions in Cleveland, the game total has been bet down to 38.
  • Our betting analysts break down their favorite picks for the game below.

Steelers vs. Browns Odds

Steelers Odds +4.5
Browns Odds -4.5
Moneyline +172 / -205
Over/Under 37.5
Time Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV Amazon Prime Video
Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest NFL odds here.

After getting Bills vs. Rams in Week 1 and then Chargers vs. Chiefs last week, don’t expect the same kind of offensive firepower in Steelers vs. Browns.

Mitchell Trubisky and Jacoby Brissett have been around the block, but they don’t have the MVP upside that we’ve seen in each of the first Thursday Night Football games. What those QBs do have are elite running backs and strong defenses to back them up.

Our best bets for this game are mostly based on those things: running the football and playing defense.

Check out our favorite picks for Steelers vs. Browns tonight below.

NFL Odds & Picks

Click on a pick to skip ahead
Anderson: Under 38
Hunter: Under 38
Steelers +5
Nick Chubb ATD
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Pick
Under 38
Best Book
Time
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Brandon Anderson: Here, we have two talented, well-coached defenses. On the other: Mitchell Trubisky and Jacoby Brissett. Advantage, defense — even more so with a forecast of 20-30 mph winds and a chance of rain.

I lean Pittsburgh +5 because of Mike Tomlin’s record as an underdog and as a ‘dog coming off a loss. Also, Kevin Stefanski is 7-5 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite and 1-11 ATS in divisional games.

There’s a better bet, and that’s the under. Feast your eyes on this long list of trends pointing toward the under:

  • Mike Tomlin road unders: 70-50-1 (58%)
  • Kevin Stefanski unders with totals below 44: 6-2 (75%)
  • Mitch Trubisky unders with totals below 43: 16-5 (76%)
  • September unders since 2014 with totals 37 to 40: 15-8 (65%)
  • Thursday night unders with totals 40 or below: 20-6-2 (77%)
  • Thursday night unders with totals 37 to 40: 18-3-1 (86%)
  • Primetime unders so far this season: 6-1 (86%)

The matchups and trends point heavily toward the under, and the bad weather only exacerbates things. Grab it before it drops further.

FanDuel Quickslip: Under 38.5


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Pick
Under 38
Best Book
Time
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Simon Hunter: Brandon laid out all the trends that make the under the pick here, so I’ll get into the matchup.

I do not trust either offense in general, and I especially don’t trust either offense against a strong defensive unit. These teams are built the way you’d expect AFC South teams to be built. They run the ball well and play strong defense.

The Steelers will miss T.J. Watt, but they still should be able to pressure Jacoby Brissett when he drops back. Cleveland also has a strong defensive line that will make life difficult for Mitch Trubisky.

Sit back on tonight and watch the points not flow.

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Pick
Steelers +5
Best Book
Time
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Kody Malstrom: I’m not a trends guy by any means. I see far too often trends being thrown around for very small sample sizes and little to no correlation. If there is one trend I will always take to heart, it’s the Mike Tomlin underdog spot. A “rah-rah” spot as some would say here at Action Network.

Tomlin is 46-23-2 ATS as an underdog and 16-7 ATS as a dog after a loss. Both hitting 67% or higher.

I will confidently take the Steelers at anything over +3.

The Browns come into this one fresh off a devastating loss, one they had in the bag if not for Chubb running in a touchdown instead of going down in bounds. Yes, the same guy who broke a long one against the Texans only to go out at the one to secure the game. It still hurts.

Not only did Cleveland lose to the Jets, but it was also pretty banged up. Jadeveon Clowney was seen limping off at the end of the game, a massive loss against the Steelers weak offensive line.

It may be ugly, but without Clowney, we may see the Steelers offense find some life against limited pressure. Take the Steelers and the points in what will be an ugly, low-scoring slobberknocker.


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Pick
Nick Chubb ATD
Best Book
Time
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Sam Farley: There’s one man that you need to back to score an anytime touchdown, and that is Nick Chubb. I know that it’s not exactly the wildest bet, but at -105 I still think there is value in backing him.

Nick Chubb is the first player in the entire history of the NFL to clock up 5,000 rushing yards with an average of 5+ yards per rush, across his first 60 games in the league. He’s a throwback, a nod to the great backs of old.

Last Sunday, Chubb scored three touchdowns and had 113 scrimmage yards. The third touchdown may have cost Cleveland the game, but it took an incredible defensive collapse for the Jets to come back and win. If the Browns were 2-0, there’d be a different narrative around the team. It’s only slight margins that have stopped that.

The Steelers allowed Damien Harris to run for 71 yards and a touchdown last Sunday, with Joe Mixon managing 82 rushing yards the week before that despite the Bengals‘ awful offensive line.

With how good the Browns’ ground game is, I’d be staggered if Chubb didn’t find the end zone on Thursday night. DraftKings has the best number at -105, as of Wednesday night, but it’s as high at -190 at BetMGM. Be sure to shop for the best number.


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