Sunday Night Football Preview: How to Bet Ravens vs. Jaguars

Sunday Night Football Preview: How to Bet Ravens vs. Jaguars

Regular readers are familiar with my weekly column — How to Bet Every Game & Every Team — so let's run the format back and find a Ravens vs. Jaguars pick for each side on Thursday Night Football

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• Huge playoff stakes for both AFC division leaders here. A Baltimore win would keep the Ravens in great shape to get the AFC 1-seed and push the Jaguars closer to worry in the division and wild-card race, while a Jacksonville win rips the 1-seed race wide open and might put the Jaguars right back into the mix.
• Trevor Lawrence is practicing in full, so he looks good to go, but it remains to be seen how much help he'll get from his offensive line with both Walker Little and Ezra Cleveland questionable. Both secondaries could be compromised, with Tyson Campbell and Andre Cisco out for the Jaguars and Kyle Hamilton the one big question mark for the Ravens.
• Will weather be a factor on Sunday night? That remains to be seen. The forecast was ugly early in the week, but it looks like the risk of precipitation has cleared for now, though it does still look windy with winds around 10-to-15 mph expected.
• Jacksonville is at home, but does it have a home-field advantage? The Jaguars have actually been much better on the road, at 11th in offensive DVOA and fifth in defense versus 23rd and 18th, respectively, at home in Florida.

Jacksonville has struggled to prove itself against top teams this season. The Jaguars have played four games against teams in the top six in either conference and lost three of them, the lone win coming with an unprecedented travel advantage in London. That includes a blowout loss against the 49ers, a team the Ravens profile somewhat similarly too.

Baltimore is the better team on both sides of the ball. The rushing attack has been excellent, and though Jacksonville's defense is built to stop that, Lamar Jackson and the passing game should find plenty of answers against a faltering pass defense missing its two best players in the secondary. Baltimore's defense will also have the upper hand against a Jaguars' offense that hasn't been great against top competition, especially with Mike MacDonald's pressure against a bad offensive line that might be missing guys.

Take advantage of the key number while it's there and grab the Ravens. They're just the better team.

This was my Hot Read pick on Sunday night, when I grabbed Under 43.5. The windy weather could be a factor, and games with 10+ mph winds are 64% to the under over the past three seasons.

That's not the only trend in play. Primetime unders continue to be a thing at 61% over the past four seasons, and games featuring home underdogs are also hitting at 61% over the past three years. Trevor Lawrence home unders are 14-8 (64%) for his career.

Both of these defenses have faltered some of late, but I'm trusting the numbers that say the defenses have the advantage here and trusting them to show up in a huge game with massive playoff implications.

I played the under 43.5 last Sunday night, but I like that a little less now because of the diminished chances of bad weather and after digging into the matchups more. I'm not buying out but with the number dropping and the bad weather fading, I'll pivot to the side I like better.

I think the Ravens are the clear best team in the AFC, and I'm not even convinced the Jaguars are a surefire playoff team yet. I need to see Jacksonville prove it against top competition — like Baltimore. Be sure to get the key number, though. I won't play past three.