NFL Odds, Picks for Every Game, Every Team | How to Bet Week 15

Here's everything you need to know about NFL odds and picks for every game and every team as we preview how to bet NFL Week 15.

Regardless of your level of betting experience, this is the NFL preview for you. These bets are designed to give you something to cheer for, with the updated odds for every game and every team. So far this week, we've already knocked out the Saturday games. Now, it's on to a full board for Sunday.

So let's get to the odds and picks for Week 15!

NFL Odds, Picks for Every Game, Every Team | How to Bet Week 15

Buccaneers vs Packers Odds, Picks

• This is another high-leverage game for both teams, with the Packers and Bucs tied at 6-7 on the fringe of the NFC wildcard race.
• No real shocker in a December game in Green Bay, but the weather report is starting to look frisky as the week goes on, with temperatures dipping into the 30s and winds in the double digits.
• The Packers are coming off a short week after their worst defensive game of the season against Tommy DeVito and the Giants. That one game dropped Green Bay from 15th to 26th in pass defense DVOA and from 18th to 28th in overall defense.

These teams are relatively even in recent metrics and both tend to play slower, especially Green Bay. The Bucs defense has been above average of late, and that should help Tampa Bay hold its own against an improving but inconsistent Packers offense.

Todd Bowles road unders have been playable historically at 30-18 (63%), the second-most profitable coach in our Action Labs system. Ditto for Baker Mayfield unders in games with a total under 44, the second-most profitable QB in such games at 20-10 to the under (67%).

Both offenses tend to start very slowly in the first half, and Packers first half unders are 9-3-1. A slow start and a high-stakes game plus some late windy conditions should keep this under.

I don't have a great feel for this game with a line that looks about right to me, so I'm going to lean on my guys Anthony Dabbundo and Luke Swain aka Vegas Refund, who both backed the Packers to win and cover on our weekly best bets podcast.

Both guys brought a great stat to the article fading the terrible NFC South. In non-division games, NFC South teams like the Bucs are an abysmal 11-25 ATS this season, covering just 31% of the time. The Bucs are division leaders only by playing in the NFL's JV division this season.

Tampa Bay has lost seven of its last 11, and three of the four wins came in the division. The Packers have recent wins over the Chiefs, Lions, and Rams, all covering this number.

I'll sit this one out. I had a hard time even coming up with angles for either team here.

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Giants vs Saints Odds, Picks

• The Tommy Cutlets story continues! Tommy DeVito and the Giants have won three straight games and somehow sit only one game behind the Saints in the NFC wildcard race.
• The Saints have a long list of injury question marks on both sides of the ball. Chris Olave, Taysom Hill, Rashid Shaheed, and Cam Jordan are uncertain to play, and Marshon Lattimore, Marcus Maye, and Michael Thomas are already out.
• Both teams are 9-4 to the under this season.

Books are still treating the Saints like a quality team, and that just doesn't pass the smell test. New Orleans has not lived up to expectations even with the softest schedule in the league, and the Saints have fallen apart with all the injuries on both sides of the ball.

They rank 30th in DVOA over the last five weeks, still bottom 10 on offense like the rest of the season but a shocking 30th on defense, where they've been outstanding for so many years under Dennis Allen. The Giants actually rank around league average during that stretch both defensively and overall.

Wink Martindale's aggressive defense should give Derek Carr problems, and Tommy DeVito may be able to move the ball with both his arm and his legs. The Saints are just 2-8-1 ATS as favorites this season and have lost six of those games. Carr is 19-37-1 ATS (34%) as a favorite for his career, and Allen is 6-16-1 ATS (27%) when favored.

There are just too many injuries. The receiver room is practically empty, Derek Carr clearly isn't healthy or comfortable in the pocket, and X-factor Taysom Hill may not play. When this offense can barely crack 200 yards against the Panthers, you know things just ain't right. New Orleans is averaging just 21.9 PPG and has scored 24 points or fewer in all but four games.

New York's defense ranks 17th in DVOA the last five games and top 10 against the pass. The Giants have a defensive line and pass rush that will give this struggling Saints line trouble. If New Orleans is going to win, it'll have to be the defense getting right and setting up the offense again. The Giants have allowed under 23.5 points in six of their last eight.

If the books are going to keep making Dennis Allen a big favorite, we're going to keep betting against him. As at least a field goal favorite, Allen has failed to cover seven of eight times and lost three times outright. I took Panthers +6.5 against the Saints last week and would do it again despite the 28-6 loss, considering the Saints barely hit 200 yards of offense.

New Orleans just isn't right. I have to sprinkle the moneyline too. We might be nearing a Saints obituary.

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Bears vs Browns Odds, Picks

• Looks like weather will be a factor in Cleveland. Expect double-digit mph winds and temperatures in the 40s with around a 50/50 chance of rain.
• The Browns' defense has earned its pristine reputation, but Cleveland's injuries are really starting to mount, and it's possible the Bears are playing better defense right now. Chicago ranks third in Defensive DVOA over the past five games and second in EPA per play allowed since the first month.

The total for this game is slowly ticking up, a telling sign considering the defensive reputations involved and the potential weather issues. Since 2017, totals between 37 and 41 that rose are 28-12 to the over (70%).

Perhaps bettors have noticed a stark contrast in Cleveland's defense with and without Deshaun Watson. In Watson's starts, the Browns have allowed just 12.5 PPG. Without him, that's more than doubled to 26.1 PPG, with at least 17 points allowed in all but one game. Perhaps it's the injuries or a trickle-down effect, but Browns unders haven't been cashing, and it seems to be more about the fading defense than the offense.

Chicago's offensive line has gelled and may be able to hold off Cleveland's front, especially with Myles Garrett ailing. The Bears have hit this over in eight of 13 games.

Joe Flacco is here to stay, at least for the rest of the season, and the Browns have quickly become a passing team with Flacco under center. He's thrown 44 and 45 times in his two starts, and that makes sense since Cleveland's run game has gone missing.

Flacco has always loved throwing to his tight ends, and Njoku had a big game last week. Chicago has been poor against tight ends, allowing hefty receptions and TDs all season, and Njoku has gone for at least 44 yards in eight of 13 games (62%).

I moved the Browns into the top five in my Power Rankings this week, but that was based on what they've done so far. I'm less convinced about the team going forward, not because of Flacco, but more the injuries and fading defense.

Are we positive Cleveland is even the better defense right now? I'll watch and find out.

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Jets vs Dolphins Odds, Picks

• Miami's injury report is long and troubling. It's not just Tyreek Hill, who missed a chunk of Monday night's loss. The offensive line is an absolute mess. Two starters are on IR now that No.1-graded PFF C Connor Williams is out for the season, and two more starters are in doubt, including stud LT Terron Armstead. The Dolphins also have three starters in the secondary limited, including both safeties, and the pass rush could be compromised with Andrew Van Ginkel a question mark.
• This looks like one of the most weather-impacted games of the weekend, with winds expected near 20 mpg and a slight chance of rain.

In case you haven't been watching this season, the Jets' offense is terrible. They rank last in DVOA, last in rushing, second to last in passing, and have somehow gotten even worse over the past month. The lack of a run game has been surprising and many of the woes can be attributed to the awful offensive line.

Miami's pass rush has been good this season, and the Dolphins' defense has actually been better than its offense during the middle stretch of the season, now that Jalen Ramsey is back. Before the Jets hit 30 last week, they had scored 13 or less in six straight games. They've gone under this number eight times, and the bad weather will only help.

We already know the Jets won't score much — see above, or just any Jets game this season — but New York's defense is the best, healthiest unit on the field and should hold its own. Miami's offense has struggled against top competition, and it has particularly struggled when the offensive line has had issues. When all the pieces of the Dolphins' offense are out there in sync, it's a beautiful whirring Mike McDaniel machine. But when the timing is thrown off and the machine is off-kilter, it can go very sideways.

We saw that Monday night, when the Dolphins' offense had only three points at home going into the fourth quarter against Tennessee. We also saw a deceivingly high total between these teams on Black Friday. The game finished at 47, but featured two pick-6s and two garbage-time TDs in the past five minutes, leaving just 20 points otherwise.

The gusty wind should make scoring difficult. Over the past three years, games with at least a 10 mph wind have gone under 64% of the time. Jets games average 35.3 PPG this season, with nine of the 13 at 38 points or below, and Zach Wilson games with a total 41 or lower are 9-2 to the under (82%).

Under all the way. I won't be intimidated by Miami's offense, not with so many injuries on the offensive line. I'm fading the Dolphins hard right now, and I considered both team total unders in this one so the game under only makes sense.

If you think the Jets have a shot at the upset, you might want to consider a Miss Playoffs futures bet on Miami (+1400, DraftKings). Lose this one, and they're suddenly staring a season-ending five-game losing streak right in the face with terrible health and only the Cowboys, Ravens and Bills left.

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Chiefs vs Patriots Odds, Picks

• The Chiefs have lost two games in a row, matching the longest losing streak in Patrick Mahomes' career.
• Mahomes has faced Bill Belichick four times in his career and gone 2-2, though his production has fared perfectly fine with 10 TDs across those four games. It's not so much Belichick's defense that had the answer as the Chiefs' previous lack of defense and some guy named Tom Brady being on the other side.
• It might be jarring to see a Chiefs game with a total at 37, but both teams are 9-4 to the under this season and games with a total of 37 or less are 76% to the under over the past four seasons.

The low total and road game have gifted us a perfect teaser spot, where we can use the six-point teaser to cross both 7 and 3 key numbers and basically turn this into a moneyline pick where the Chiefs just have to win. Mahomes and the Chiefs are going to win.

The Patriots don't have much pass rush, and they also struggle to defend receiving RBs and the middle of the field. In other words, Mahomes should have plenty of time to pick this defense apart throwing to Travis Kelce over the middle and hitting his backs out of the backfield, even with Isiah Pacheco out again.

The Chiefs certainly have some issues, notably the rushing defense that ranks last over the past five weeks, but Kansas City needs a win and it will find a way. Mahomes is 17-4 SU after a loss lifetime and has never lost three in a row.

No Rhamondre Stevenson means the Ezekiel Elliott renaissance may continue, and Elliott has been getting heavy usage in recent weeks. He ran 22 times in the Thursday night win over the Steelers, and he's also getting involved as a receiver far more than he ever did in Dallas. He had seven catches for 72 yards in that game and four catches in the previous game.

Bailey Zappe loves to dump it off to his backs, and Elliott should be out there a lot, so playing this way is more matchup-proof. If the Patriots hang around, Elliott should get plenty of volume against the league's worst run defense over the past month. If not, he should be catching plenty of dump offs from Zappe as the Patriots attempt to play from behind.

This is my favorite teaser spot of the week. It's not a traditional Wong teaser on the road, and normally a road game should give us pause, especially in New England. But the Patriots have been mostly terrible, and most road teams don't have Mahomes. I'll trust Mahomes and the Chiefs to get back on track.

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Texans vs Titans Odds, Picks

• The Texans have struggled with injuries all year, but this week may be the worst yet. C.J. Stroud is doubtful and remains in concussion protocol, fellow Rookie of the Year contender Will Anderson is confirmed out, along with Blake Cashman and Tavierre Thomas. Nico Collins and Noah Brown are also questionable, potentially leaving the passing game woefully undermanned with Tank Dell already out for the season. There are also injuries on the offensive line once again.
• All those injuries have completely swung the lines for this game. On Sunday morning, Houston was a solid 3.5-point favorite with a total at 42.5. The latest injury news has now swung this all the way to the other side with the Titans at -3.5 or -4 and rising at some books, with the total dropping all the way to 37 or below. Effectively, books have taken an entire touchdown away from Houston.
• Veteran Case Keenum will start at QB for the Texans if Stroud ends up sitting. Keenum could be throwing to Robert Woods and John Metchie behind a makeshift line, though Dalton Schultz's return at TE should help.
• These division rivals usually play close games. They've finished within one score in seven of the past 10, and the road team has won five straight in the rivalry.

Stroud would be a huge loss in any game as well as he's been playing, easily at a top-10 QB level, but he's an especially big loss against a Titans defense that acts as a pass funnel, a matchup Stroud and this explosive passing game are built to exploit. Without Stroud, Anderson, Dell, and others, this feels a lot like last year's Texans team — you know, the one that got to pick twice at the top of the draft to get those guys?

Houston has played with its backs against the wall and a flurry of injuries a few other times, and it will need the defense to step up here to have a chance. Tennessee's offense remains inconsistent.

Often when the total starts to drop like this, books just can't move it far enough. Games with a total at 38 or below that dropped by at least four points are 32-16-2 to the under (67%) over the past two decades, and games with a total at 37 or below are 28-9-1 to the under (76%) over the past four calendar years.

Levis was the best player on the field Monday night against a good Dolphins defense. The Titans' offense has started to skew toward the pass, with the passing attack in the top half of the league by DVOA over the past five weeks. Houston's pass defense has struggled all year and is ranked bottom five by DVOA.

The Titans' offense has been much better at home this season. Levis has thrown for at least 185 yards in all but one game when he's played, and he's averaging 228 yards per appearance. He's gone over this in two straight and is coming off his first career 300-yard game, so keep riding that high on a low line.

Regular readers know I'm already in way over my head on Texans Island, and it's starting to look pretty bleak with all the injuries. I'm plenty invested in this game via Houston futures, so I don't need to put anything more into this. However, it does feel like the line has moved a tad far in Tennessee's direction. Houston has bailed itself out of tough spots more than once this season. Maybe the Texans can do it again.

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Falcons vs Panthers Odds, Picks

• This looks like one of the more weather-impacted games of the weekend, with winds from 10-to-20 mph, temperatures in the 40s and a 60% chance of rain. The weather might end up as ugly as the matchup.
• Windy games of 10 mph or higher have gone under 64% of the time the past three seasons. These teams are a combined 17-9 to the under, and NFC South division games have averaged just 38.1 PPG this season with all but one of them under 40. This game practically screams UNDER — but books sniffed it out too, opening the total at 35 and it's now as low as 33.5 at some books.
• These division rivals have played a one-score game in five of the past seven meetings, so this could be low-scoring and close all the way, maybe something like 16-13.

The Panthers have the worst rushing defense in the league by DVOA. Carolina has allowed 17 rushing TDs to opposing RBs this season, the most of any team by three full touchdowns. Bijan Robinson scored in his NFL debut against these Panthers, and he's scored five touchdowns in Atlanta's past six games.

Atlanta wants to run early and often, and this game script sets up well for Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, especially if we get bad weather. The Panthers have already allowed five opposing RBs to score at least twice in one game, so this also looks like a good opportunity to nibble two TDs at +700 (BetMGM).

The Panthers are in the spoiler role, but can still ruin a division opponent's playoff dreams, and I'm not sure Carolina is much worse than Atlanta, despite the terrible record. The Falcons' offense has disappointed all season, and the defense has had high moments, but has been inconsistent overall. Atlanta hasn't generated a good pass rush and isn't built to punish Carolina's porous blocking.

Desmond Ridder has struggled on the road in his career, and he's also been a very slow starter. He's 3-12 ATS in first halves, covering just 20% of the time, and he's also struggled in windy conditions at 0-4 both ATS and SU in games with 10+ mph winds. Carolina's defense ranks last in the second half, but top half of the league in the first half, and Atlanta's offense ranks bottom five before halftime.

Carolina can hold its own and hang — at least until halftime.

This is an ugly game. The Falcons should have enough incentive and talent to find a way, but I'm sitting on Atlanta playoff and division futures and that's already enough investment in this disappointing team.

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Cowboys vs Bills Odds, Picks

• This is the game of the week, with both teams coming off one of their best wins of the season. A Cowboys win keeps Dak Prescott on top of the MVP race and Dallas right in the 1-seed race, while a Buffalo win might thrust Josh Allen into that conversation again and suddenly makes the Bills a very scary team on a huge playoff push. A loss for either team has the opposite effect and pushes the loser's hopes to the brink.
• This game is starting to crop up on the weather report, with winds expected over 10 mph and a late-week forecast of 50% chance of rain with temperatures in the 40s. Add in a late afternoon kickoff in Buffalo in December and weather could turn into a real factor.
• Keep an eye on the injury news for both teams. Buffalo will be missing top safety Micah Hyde and its best pass rusher A.J. Epenesa. Tight end Dalton Kincaid has been limited in practice and would be a big miss in this matchup with Dallas' weakness covering tight ends. The Cowboys don't have any big new injuries, but a number of players have been limited in practice with suggestions of a bug going around the locker room.
• Could this be a game of two halves? The Cowboys are 10-3 ATS in the first half this season, best in the league, while Josh Allen is 64% ATS for his career in second halves.
• Season-long metrics suggest that the Bills' defense may be the weakest unit on the field, but Buffalo's defense has been on a roller coaster. It ranked third in DVOA over the first four weeks of the season before sustaining a barrage of key injuries and plummeting to 31st in Weeks 5 through 9. Since then, though, Sean McDermott's defense has rounded back into form and ranks seventh — actually ahead of a slightly fading Dallas defense.

The Cowboys made a handful of key free agent signings this offseason that had me excited about Dallas coming into the season. One of those key additions was CB Stephon Gilmore, who was a huge difference maker in last week's win over Philadelphia. Brandin Cooks was another supposedly big addition, but an early injury has limited his season impact.

Cooks exploded with 9/173/1 against the Giants a month ago and is finally looking healthy. He's averaging 4.4 catches for 73.8 yards over the past five games with increasing snap counts that have him on the field most of the game. He's had at least 37 yards in all five, so this line is pricing him at his floor. Buffalo ranks last against WR2s by DVOA and near the bottom defending deep passes.

The Bills are sure to give heavy coverage to CeeDee Lamb, and Cooks will get his chances. Could this be the game where the signing pays off? You can play a SGP of 70 yards and a score at +750 (DraftKings), something he's done twice in the past five games, and hope for a long score.

The Cowboys' defense is great, but it's a bit undersized, and Buffalo can attack it by playing power ball. That means using 12 personnel (one RB, two TEs) now that Dawson Knox is back, getting big bodies on the field to ignite a run game that's exploded of late and set up a playaction attack that can attack Dallas' weak point.

The Cowboys rank 26th by DVOA defending the middle of the field against the pass and 23rd against tight ends. This defense's weakness is at linebacker, and Kincaid and Cook are mismatches that Dallas won't have great answers for in the passing game. Dallas has allowed six tight ends to hit at least 43 receiving yards. Kincaid had six straight games with at least 38 yards before last week. If he's healthy enough to go, he should get his chances.

Cook has been emphasized since the Bills moved on from Ken Dorsey, especially in the passing game. He has 14 catches for 169 yards the past three games, going over this very low line in three straight. He's actually topped 50 in each of the past two, and he's +525 to do that again (bet365) if you'd like an escalator.

This game feels like a high-scoring toss-up that could come down to the final possession, like the Bills game a week ago. I'm heavily invested in both teams' futures, so I'm pretty happy with a win either way since I've got MVP, division, and Super Bowl futures both ways.

I like attacking these big games with props, targeting specific matchups. Cooks looks like a key matchup with Buffalo tilting its coverage toward Lamb, and the line is too low considering the floor he's started to establish for himself. The escalator number is too long too since one long play can get us there.

If the weather looks clean, I may end up adding the Kincaid and/or Cook props. I'm expecting fireworks in this one.

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Commanders vs Rams Odds, Picks

• The Rams are coming off one of the more impressive offensive performances of the season, moving the ball at will both running and passing against the No. 1 DVOA defense in Baltimore. The Rams were so impressive that they lost the game and dropped to 6-7, but moved up into the top 10 of my Power Rankings.
• Washington ranks last in Defensive DVOA, both against the pass and overall. The Commanders' defense has been a sieve all season and didn't find any answers after firing its defensive coordinator.
• The Commanders are coming out of the bye week, the fourth time this season the Rams have faced an opponent out of the bye, but Ron Rivera is just 4-8 ATS (33%) after the week off.

Just lean into it at this point. Washington's defense can't stop a nosebleed, and the Rams' offense is firing on all cylinders. LA's offense ranks second in DVOA over the past five weeks, behind only the unstoppable force that is the 49ers. The Rams have gone over this total in three straight.

As for Washington, the Commanders allow top two fantasy points to both quarterbacks and wide receivers, and this pass defense should get picked apart by Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Washington gave up 45 to Dallas and Miami in its past two games, and the Rams' offense is playing better than both right now. Washington has allowed 30.4 PPG and opponents have gone over this total in nine of 13 games (69%). All but the terrible Cardinals, Falcons, Giants and Patriots have gone over.

I'm all-in on the Rams right now. They're playing like a top-10 team over the past five weeks, with the most unstoppable offense in the league outside of San Francisco. Raheem Morris' defense has been much improved too, especially against the run, and that's important against the Commanders.

Mostly this is about the terrible Commanders' defense, worst in the league and completely lacking in pass rush since trading away Chase Young and Montez Sweat.

Teams that have allowed 28+ in three straight like the Commanders (four actually, and nine times this year) are 22-45-2 ATS (33%), and Sean McVay is 61% ATS after a loss. The Rams are great in the first half, where Washington is bad, so expect LA to get a lead early, play on the front foot, and possibly run up a big point total in an easy win. Play -6 if you can, but -6.5 is fine if needed.

This is my favorite side of the week by a wide margin. I'm buying in on this offense, and I'm playing the Rams in this game any number of ways. I looked at Rams first half and Rams team over, and I'll likely consider alternate lines. I'm also already in on the Rams for next Thursday night's game against the Saints. In a tough slate, this is my favorite pick and one I'm playing for multiple units.

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49ers vs Cardinals Odds, Picks

• The 49ers continue to dominate opponents, and the Cardinals have been no match for this buzz saw the past couple seasons. Final scores of the past three division meetings: 38-10, 38-13 and 35-16, all in favor of the 49ers.
• Be careful about just assuming the 49ers blow the Cardinals out, though. This is a bit of a trap game for San Francisco, coming off a big division game against Seattle and heading into a monster Christmas night showdown against the Ravens that could be a Super Bowl preview. Also, the 49ers have a long injury list and could end up resting some guys to be healthy for Christmas.
• If you're a trends bettor, most of the trends are on the side of the under and the Cardinals, a generally nice spot for a huge home underdog with a high total.

Give some credit to Arizona for hanging around in a home game coming out of the bye week — but not too much credit. This is still the best team in the league, with the 49ers now ranked first in both offensive and defensive DVOA over the past five weeks, so even a subpar effort should be enough to beat the lowly Cardinals by a touchdown.

Arizona's defense is terrible, so the 49ers are going to score. San Francisco has scored at least 27 in every win this season. Can Arizona get to 21? Over their past 24 games, the 49ers are 20-4 straight up. The four losses came with significant injuries in each game, and 19 of the 20 wins came by at least seven points, covering this teased-down line. In fact, 16 of the wins came by 12 or more points.

Unless you think the 49ers lose this game, tease them down past the key number of 7 and trust them to beat an outmatched opponent by a touchdown.

This isn't actually a bet on the Cardinals. It's more acceptance of what the matchup against the 49ers means for them.

Did you see the scores of these games the past three meetings? 38-10, 38-13 and 35-16 sort of speaks for itself. The 49ers' offense has been unstoppable, and it's not like the Cardinals are stopping anyone anyway. Arizona's offense has had its moments under Drew Petzing, but the defense has really never had the juice this season and ranks bottom three in most metrics.

The 49ers have scored at least 27 points in every win this season, and the Cardinals have already allowed five opponents to top this total this season. It's telling that Christian McCaffrey is a ridiculous -450 to score an Anytime TD this week. The 49ers are going to score, and score often. Just lean in.

It's just hard to see San Francisco's offense not hanging a crooked number on this bad Arizona defense, and that will make it hard for the Cardinals to keep up. I don't trust San Francisco's defense as much with the injuries and a look-ahead spot, so I'll stay away from the inflated line, but I do trust the 49ers to win by at least a touchdown.

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Sunday Night Football: Ravens vs Jaguars Odds, Picks

• Huge playoff stakes for both AFC division leaders here. A Baltimore win would keep the Ravens in great shape to get the AFC 1-seed and push the Jaguars closer to worry in the division and wild-card race, while a Jacksonville win rips the 1-seed race wide open and might put the Jaguars right back into the mix.
• Trevor Lawrence is practicing in full, so he looks good to go, but it remains to be seen how much help he'll get from his offensive line with both Walker Little and Ezra Cleveland questionable. Both secondaries could be compromised, with Tyson Campbell and Andre Cisco out for the Jaguars and Kyle Hamilton the one big question mark for the Ravens.
• Will weather be a factor on Sunday night? That remains to be seen. The forecast was ugly early in the week, but it looks like the risk of precipitation has cleared for now, though it does still look windy with winds around 10-15 mph expected.
• Jacksonville is at home, but does it have a home-field advantage? The Jaguars have actually been much better on the road, at 11th in offensive DVOA and fifth in defense versus 23rd and 18th, respectively, at home in Florida.

Jacksonville has struggled to prove itself against top teams this season. The Jaguars have played four games against teams in the top six in either conference and lost three of them, the lone win coming with an unprecedented travel advantage in London. That includes a blowout loss against the 49ers, a team the Ravens profile somewhat similarly too.

Baltimore is the better team on both sides of the ball. The rushing attack has been excellent, and though Jacksonville's defense is built to stop that, Lamar Jackson and the passing game should find plenty of answers against a faltering pass defense missing its two best players in the secondary. Baltimore's defense will also have the upper hand against a Jaguars' offense that hasn't been great against top competition, especially with Mike MacDonald's pressure against a bad offensive line that might be missing guys.

Take advantage of the key number while it's there and grab the Ravens. They're just the better team.

This was my Hot Read pick on Sunday night, when I grabbed Under 43.5. The windy weather could be a factor, and games with 10+ mph winds are 64% to the under over the past three seasons.

That's not the only trend in play. Primetime unders continue to be a thing at 61% over the past four seasons, and games featuring home underdogs are also hitting at 61% over the past three years. Trevor Lawrence home unders are 14-8 (64%) for his career.

Both of these defenses have faltered some of late, but I'm trusting the numbers that say the defenses have the advantage here and trusting them to show up in a huge game with massive playoff implications.

I played the under 43.5 on the Hot Read, but I like the under a little less now because of the diminished bad weather and after digging into the matchups more. I'm not buying out, but with the number dropping and the bad weather fading, I'll pivot to the side I like better.

I think the Ravens are the clear best team in the AFC, and I'm not even convinced the Jaguars are a surefire playoff team yet. I need to see Jacksonville prove it against top competition — like Baltimore. Be sure to get the key number, though. I won't play past three.

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Monday Night Football: Eagles vs Seahawks Odds, Picks

• Somebody stop the bleeding! The Eagles have lost two straight after starting 10-1 and have now lost control of their destiny for the NFC 1-seed. Philadelphia is the NFC 5-seed right now and would start the playoffs on the road. Seattle has lost four straight and is out of the playoff picture all together right now. Both of these teams are playing with their backs against the wall, badly in need of a win.
• Good luck figuring out Seattle's injury report. The list is long and fuzzy at best. Leonard Williams, Devon Witherspoon, Jamal Adams and Jordyn Brooks are among the many defensive names with limited or no practice who could end up missing. And then there's the big one.
• Will Geno Smith play? Smith injured his groin in practice last Thursday and was ruled out the morning of Seattle's most recent game, giving Drew Lock the start. Lock did well enough against the 49ers, but is a huge step down from Smith. Smith has been limited in practice, and groin injuries tend to linger. The guess here is that he goes, with the extra day here providing a cushion, but he probably won't be at or near 100%.

Philadelphia's losses the past two weeks weren't pretty, but also came against arguably the two best teams in the league, and Seattle is no San Francisco or Dallas. The Seahawks rank just 24th in DVOA over the past five weeks, with both the offense and defense ranked at least that low.

Seattle has fallen off much further than Philadelphia, and its defense is especially troubling and has been even worse at home this season. Seattle's offensive line could also be in trouble if the Eagles pass rush has any gas left, and Seattle's struggles on late downs and in the red zone also look like big red flags against an Eagles team that specializes in those areas. Philadelphia has also run well to the left side, where Seattle's run defense has been particularly porous.

This late in the season, great teams tend to bounce back after big losses. From Week 10 to 15, teams with at least a 60% win rate coming off a 20+ point loss are an incredible 40-8 ATS over the past couple of decades, covering an awesome 83% of the time. Trust the Eagles to bounce back in a big spot against an opponent that just isn't healthy right now.

Seattle should pass plenty in this game, regardless of who plays quarterback. Philadelphia's secondary has been beatable all season, and that could mean a big game for DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett or Jaxon Smith-Njigba — but it's hard to know which one.

Instead let's pivot to tight end, since the Eagles rank last in DVOA against opposing tight ends. Noah Fant has slowly taken hold of the lead tight end role as the season has gone on, with his highest snap rate of the year over the past month, and he's had at least 25 receiving yards in eight games this season, including each of the past three. I like that he hit the over with Lock last week too.

I'm not waiting around for Seattle's injury report, since bad news can only push this line back above the key number. I love this specific matchup for the Eagles against a defense that simply can't tackle, and I think this is a great get-right spot for Philadelphia.

Seattle has allowed at least 28 points in three straight, and teams that do that are just 22-45-2 ATS (33%) the following game since 2018. I trust the Eagles against Seattle's defense, and I want the -3.

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• Rams -6
• Jets/Dolphins under 37.5
• Tease Chiefs -7.5 to -1.5 and 49ers -12 to -6
• Giants +6 & sprinkle ML +225
• T.J. Hockenson over 50.5 receiving yards
• Brandin Cooks over 38.5 receiving yards | 70 yards & TD escalator (+750)
• Steelers ML +110 or bet live
• Ravens -3
• Eagles -3
• Week 16 Lookahead: Rams -4 vs Saints
• Week 16 Lookahead: Bears -3 vs Cardinals

Saturday's Week 15 Games: Odds, Picks

Vikings vs Bengals Odds, Picks

• The first early Saturday game of the season is a huge one in the wild card race for both conferences, with both the Vikings and Bengals tied for the final playoff spots. If you're a fan of another team, AFC fans should be rooting for Minnesota, NFC fans for Cincinnati.
• These teams have been opposites in recent weeks. The Vikings rank 30th in DVOA offensively over the last five games with so many key names missing, and the Bengals defense has ranked 31st.
• The Vikings will be without RT Brian O'Neill and RB Alexander Mattison, but it looks like Justin Jefferson should play. Nick Mullens will make his first start at QB for the Vikings.

If you've read this column in recent weeks, you might've spotted a theme: we keep playing tight ends against the Bengals, and we're not stopping now. Cincinnati has allowed more fantasy points to opposing tight ends than any team, with 6.8 receptions and almost 72 yards a game both tops in the league.

Hockenson has seen a slight dip in production in recent weeks but still sits among the league leaders in receptions, and he should get plenty of work against a defense so porous in the middle of the field, especially since new QBs tend to check it down to their backs and tight ends. Hockenson has gone over this number in nine straight games.

If you want to play an escalator, the Bengals have allowed four tight ends to hit 81+ yards since Week 8 alone, and Hockenson has six games with 66 or more yards, so that likely means value on 75+ at +280 (bet365).

My, how the mighty have fallen. Many talked about Higgins as 1B to Ja'Marr Chase's 1A entering the season, and that simply has not been the case ever since Higgins' stinker in the opener.

That receiving yard line is not a typo — and Higgins has actually gone under it in five of his nine games. But he's had 36+ in four straight and appears to be healthy now. The Vikings have been poor against opposing WR2s, so this could be a nice Higgins spot. In the four games he's gone over this number, he actually had at least 69 yards each game, so an aggressive bettor might skip the median outcome and go for just 75+ at +425 (bet365).

This is a tricky game to get a handle on, which is why I'm leaning props here rather than a side or total. I do wonder if Brian Flores' aggressive scheme could end the Jake Browning honeymoon. Either way, Hockenson has been a reliable target monster all season and has upside if Jefferson is limited or out again too, so I'll keep riding Bengals opponent tight ends.

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Steelers vs Colts Odds, Picks

• The Steelers are coming off back-to-back losses against teams eight games below .500, the first team in NFL history to suffer such ignominy. But even including those games, Pittsburgh still ranks in the top half of the league on both offense and defense by DVOA and top 10 overall.
• The Colts have had strong home/road splits, but not the way you think. On the road, the Colts have struggled offensively but rank near the top of the league in defense. At home, Indianapolis is far better on offense but bottom five on defense.
• This could have the feel of a Saturday playoff game, with each team very much in the crowded AFC wildcard race and huge playoff leverage on the line for both teams.

The Colts have done a great job getting off to quick starts offensively for much of the season, a testament to the great work Shane Steichen has done with this offense. Indianapolis ranks sixth in first quarter offensive DVOA but below average after that.

Pittsburgh is just the opposite at 30th in the first quarter and 28th in the first half. The Steelers are much better in the second half and actually rank top five on both offense and defense. Pittsburgh is an ugly 3-10 ATS in first halves this season, worst in the league. Look for the Colts to get out ahead early.

Pittsburgh just lost to Arizona and New England and barely even looked competitive. The Steelers looked like a playoff team two weeks ago and now feel dead in the water, the absolute last team you'd want to invest in. And that's exactly when the time is right to put your money on Mike Tomlin's guys.

This is a classic "Rah Rah" Tomlin spot. From Week 5 forward, Tomlin is 44-19-1 ATS (70%) as an underdog and won 37 of those covers straight up, an awesome 47% ROI for bettors on the moneyline. That trend is even better as an underdog coming off a loss, where Tomlin is 17-6 ATS and has won 16 of those 17 covers straight up, an 82% ROI on the moneyline.

Pittsburgh has run the ball well and stopped the run, and that's the right matchup against the Colts. It probably won't be pretty, but Rah Rah all the way. If you can wait to bet it live, because of Pittsburgh's poor starts, you might be able to get a better number sometime in the first half.

I love my Rah Rah Tomlin spots. It doesn't have to make sense — this is just what the Steelers do, coming through in these terrible spots just when everyone's finally written them off. Because of the first quarter trends favoring the Colts, I prefer to wait until Pittsburgh is down 7-to-10 early and pounce on a better line.

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Broncos vs Lions Odds, Picks

• Remember when the Broncos allowed 70 points to the Dolphins? Their defensive metrics for the season still reflect that, but that unit has been far better of late, especially the pass defense, now up to 20th on the season after leaping 10 spots last week alone. The run defense has still been pretty bad.
• Detroit's vaunted offensive line hasn't been healthy of late, and both Taylor Decker and Frank Ragnow are questionable once again. The Lions are one of those teams that's willing to run the ball 40 times and play smash-mouth if things are working, and that's a good way to beat Denver, but Detroit will need a healthy offensive line to do so.

The line is pricing Detroit as the clearly better team, but are we positive that's still the case? It certainly was early, but it's been a much different story in recent weeks. The Lions rank around league average over the last five games, with a top 10-offense but a defense that's imploded. Detroit's defense ranks bottom five and second to last against the pass, similar to Denver's season long metrics, right as the Broncos are peaking in this stretch with a top-10 offense of their own and a defense that's leapt to sixth.

Will Detroit's defense be able to stop this boring but effective Broncos offense? Teams that have allowed at least 25 points in five straight games are 13-30 ATS (30%) since 2018, and the Lions are missing Alim McNeil no the line and a bunch of buddies in the secondary. Russell Wilson and Sean Payton have been terrific underdogs for their careers, and +4.5 is too much as well as Denver has played the last two months.

If Detroit is going to win, it feels like a good Montgomery game is in store. Jared Goff has been turning it over, and the best way to protect against that is a hefty dose of running the football. Even as Denver's defense has improved, it's mostly the passing defense. The run defense remains terrible, and Denver has allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs at 125 rushing yards and 5.5 YPC, both highest in the league.

Montgomery's snaps are way down in recent weeks with rookie Jahmyr Gibbs getting more time on the field, but the workload has still been there. Montgomery should still get at least 12 carries, and against the Broncos, that's probably enough. He's gone over this line in eight of his 10 games (though five of the eight were over by 10 yards or less), and he also has a TD in eight of the 10 if you want to play a SGP.

This is one of the more interesting games of the weekend for me as a viewer, but that's because I don't feel confident in my read on either side right now. Denver doesn't pass the eye test, but the underlying metrics are becoming hard to deny. Detroit did pass the test early but doesn't feel right of late and the defense might've turned into a pumpkin.

This feels like a litmus test: Is either team a real contender to make the playoffs and win a game? I'll watch and learn but sit this one out as a bettor.

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