Early Super Bowl Odds Movement: How Bettors Are Driving the 49ers vs. Chiefs Over/Under
Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Travis Kelce
Super Bowl 54 odds are out and lines are already on the move!
Last year, the Rams opened between -1 and a pick’em against the Patriots, but sharps instantly hammered New England up to -1.5/-2 shortly after lines opened. A very wise move in hindsight.
This year, one side has more than 90% of the early money, which has led to significant line movement. Will it look wise two weeks from now?
Early Super Bowl Sharp Betting Pick: 49ers vs. Chiefs
In the early going, everyone loves the over. There was some sharp activity on the under, but the river of cash flowing in on the over has superseded it.
After opening at 51.5, this total is all the way up to 53.5/54 thanks to more than 80% of the early bets and more than 90% of the money coming in on the over.
Like I said, there was actually a Reverse Line Move on the under — which briefly moved it from 53 to 52.5 — but it has since continued to rise. I expect things to settle in by the end of Monday, at which point we may see somewhat of a lull in terms of line movement.
This is shaping up to be the highest over/under of any 49ers game this season, with the previous high being 51 back in Week 1 vs. Tampa Bay. The Chiefs were featured in the highest total of the entire season back in October vs. the Colts in a game that closed at 55.5.
For those looking for insights on the spread, there haven’t been any early signs of sharp activity. The market has settled in at KC -1/-1.5 — a pretty inconsequential range.
If we do see sharp action, expect the line to reach either a PK or head toward KC -3 depending on what side is hit.