Super Bowl Pick for Chiefs vs 49ers: Expert Takes Side Against the Spread
Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes.
Chris Raybon gave out his Super Bowl pick against the spread on The Action Network Podcast. You can listen to the full episode from him and Stuckey, and read his pick below.
Super Bowl Pick for Chiefs vs 49ers: Expert Takes Side Against the Spread
I like Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in this matchup for a few different reasons.
When Mahomes struggled this year, it was when he was primarily targeting receivers who we don't expect to figure much into this matchup. This season, Mahomes targeted the quartet of Kadarius Toney, Mecole Hardman Jr., Skyy Moore and Justyn Ross 112 times, and those targets resulted in 11 drops, seven interceptions, four fumbles and two penalties.
When not targeting any of those four receivers, Mahomes' yards per attempt went from 7.0 to 7.5, and his interception rate dropped from 2 to 1.2%.
One of the big keys will be third down conversions, and the 49ers' defense hasn't been the same in these situations since losing star safety Talanoa Hufanga for the season. When Hufanga was on the field, the Niners' defense graded out about average in stopping third-down conversions. But since he was injured, they've been a bottom-three unit in the league.
Another factor is how Brock Purdy will perform against the Kansas City defense. When he's been bad, he's been really bad, and it's often come against good defenses and, notably, well-respected defensive coordinators. Nine of Purdy's 12 interceptions and 11 of his 21 turnover-worthy plays came in just four games — all losses. Those were against the Browns and defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, the Vikings and Brian Flores, the Bengals and Lou Anarumo, and the Ravens and Mike Macdonald. Expect Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to take a page out of those scripts.
Likewise, while a lot will be made of the Chiefs' run defense struggles against the Niners' potent rushing attack, when they have struggled against the run, it has often made their opponents one-dimensional. In the four worst rushing defense performances of the season — and four where they gave up 130-plus yards on the ground, their opponents only averaged 135 yards through the air.
It's also worth noting that the Chiefs held last year's No. 1 rushing offense, the Eagles, to just 3.6 yards per carry on 32 attempts in last year's Super Bowl.
Finally, there's the matter of betting against Mahomes in the postseason and betting against Mahomes as an underdog. In his career, Mahomes is 10-1-1 against the spread as an underdog. In the postseason, he's 12-5 against the spread and 14-3 straight-up. The only playoff losses of his career have come against Tom Brady twice and Joe Burrow once.
Pick: Chiefs +2 or Better
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