Thursday Night Football Props: Isiah Pacheco, Rashee Rice TNF Picks
Photo by Dustin Satloff/Getty Images. Pictured: Isiah Pacheco.
Broncos vs Chiefs Player Props (Thursday Night Football)
In the table below, you'll find my best player prop picks for the Thursday Night Football showdown between the Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.
Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
Here are four ways I'm backing Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice in this TNF matchup.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Broncos vs. Chiefs
It’s been a mixed season for Isiah Pacheco. He hasn’t hit the heights that we saw down the stretch for the Chiefs last season, but he’s still picked up three touchdowns and 325 rushing yards. While not elite, he’s a good running back.
That won’t matter on Thursday when he's up against a historically bad Broncos defense that can't stop the run. They’ve allowed 150-plus more rushing yards after five games than the second-worst rush defense in the NFL (Bengals).
On Sunday, we saw Breece Hall go nuclear on them, not surprising when they’ve averaged 187 rushing yards against per game.
It’s Pacheco’s turn to have himself a day.
We are already backing the former Rutgers man to get over 74.5 rushing yards, but I also want to have a little sprinkle on something far more speculative.
I’m taking over 150 rushing yards, which is available at +800. It’s a big number and this should be treated as a long shot, but I feel its more likely than the +800 odds imply.
After all, we’ve seen Breece Hall put up 177 rushing yards and De’Von Achane rack up 203 rushing yards against Denver.
With Travis Kelce’s status up in the air — and knowing that even if he plays he’s unlikely to be 100% — it makes me even more confident that the Chiefs could and should lean on Pacheco.
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I can’t help but think that the receiving yards line here is really low at 29.5 yards.
The Chiefs will no doubt look to rely on the run against a poor Broncos run D, but even if Travis Kelce is fit and firing, you have to think that Patrick Mahomes continues to look to rookie Rashee Rice.
He had seven targets in the first two weeks of the season, but he has had 17 in the three games since. We’ve seen Rice exceed 29.5 yards in each of the last three weeks, and it’s clear that the Chiefs are looking to get the former SMU man the ball.
He’s averaged 10.2 yards per catch this season, which would put him on track to beat this total with just three catches — a number he’s hit in all but one game.
We’re going back to the well on Rice.
He’s earning the trust of both his QB and Andy Reid and has stepped up in recent weeks. He scored last Sunday, his first touchdown since the opening game of the season, and I think he has a great chance to score again on TNF.
He’s been targeted on 35% of his routes after five weeks. That’s level with both Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams — there’s nobody in the league with a higher rate. That’s incredible given that he’s a rookie. With his 6-foot-2 frame, he’s going to be a menace in the red zone, something that might be important depending on what condition Kelce is in.
It certainly gives me hope that the +280 odds are far too big for somebody that the Chiefs are actively trying to give the ball.
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