The Washington Commanders (2-1) and Atlanta Falcons (1-2) will face off in NFL Week 4. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Falcons are 2-point favorites over the Commanders on the spread (Falcons -2), with the over/under set at 43.5 total points. Atlanta is a -130 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Washington is +110 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Commanders vs. Falcons predictions and NFL picks for Sunday, September 28.
Commanders vs Falcons Prediction
- Commanders vs Falcons pick: Falcons +1 (-110)
My Falcons vs. Commanders best bet is on Atlanta to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Commanders vs Falcons Odds
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
Commanders vs Falcons NFL Week 4 Preview
I'm taking the Falcons to cover the spread against the Commanders in NFL Week 4.
This is a trifecta of spots that I will almost always play. The Falcons originally opened as 3-point underdogs in this matchup, and have since moved to short favorites following the news of Jayden Daniels expected to be sidelined for Washington.
However, underdogs coming off a shutout loss have hit at a 62% ATS rate the following week historically. Underdogs coming off a loss by 30+ points have also hit at a 60% ATS rate historically.
The Falcons had a flukey game against Carolina last week. Atlanta outgained the Panthers by 100 total yards, but everything seemingly went wrong for the Falcons, and they still managed to lose the game by 30.
Michael Penix was terrible last week. The Falcons' quarterback completed just 50% of his pass attempts for 172 yards to go along with zero touchdowns and two interceptions.
I'm not quite sure why the Falcons insist on forcing the ball downfield so much, but I still believe in Penix. It's just one game. We are talking about a guy who only has six career NFL starts under his belt entering this week. So, he's going to have bad days sometimes.
However, not only am I using this as an opportunity to buy low on the Falcons, this is also a chance to sell on the Commanders' current injury situation. This game appears to be priced as if both teams are fully healthy, and that simply isn't the case.
Jayden Daniels is still listed as questionable for this game, and if he does play, he probably won't be quite as mobile as we are accustomed to seeing, which is such a crucial part of his tool set.
It appears Terry McLaurin may also miss this game for Washington. Noah Brown is banged up. They have a bunch of defenders on injured reserve. Washington is in a really tough spot health-wise.
Commanders vs Falcons Prediction, Betting Analysis
I believe the combination of Daniels' questionable health status and the Commanders' lengthy list of injuries at the wide receiver position will prove to be key in this matchup.
So, give me the Falcons +1 in a home bounce-back spot after getting embarrassed by Carolina last week.
The Commanders' defense is really banged-up at the moment, so I expect the Falcons' offense to be able to move the ball against them.
The Falcons are moving their defensive coordinator from the booth to the sideline this week, which may seem like a small thing. But with all the communication issues this team had in the first few weeks of the season, the move may actually prove to be a huge help.
I like what I've seen from Atlanta's defense overall, especially given all the rookies getting considerable playing time. They generate pressure against opposing quarterbacks. This defensive unit should only continue to get better.
I think the Falcons get the job done at home here. Give me Atlanta.
Pick: Falcons +1 (-110)
Spread
My Falcons vs. Commanders betting prediction is on Atlanta to cover the spread at +1.
Moneyline
I'm targeting the spread instead of the moneyline in this spot.
Over/Under
I will also be staying away from the total in this matchup.
