NFL Week 11 opens with an AFC East rivalry on Thursday Night Football as the New York Jets take on the New England Patriots.
That's where I begin my Week 11 picks, followed by bets, leans and passes for the rest of the weekend slate, including Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football.
Every week, I break down my thoughts on every NFL game from a betting perspective. NFL odds move throughout the week, and getting action in at key numbers can be the difference between a good and great betting season.
NFL Week 11 Odds & Picks
| Table of Contents |
|---|
| Thursday Night Football |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 11 Picks |
| Sunday Night Football |
| Monday Night Football |
Thursday Night Football
Jets vs Patriots
| Jets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | +550 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | -800 |
While I'd like to sit here and joke (kind of) that the Jets are the hottest team in football right now, the Patriots make a pretty good case with seven straight wins. Still, it's only been recently that New England has encountered some good competition, and in the inverse, the Jets had faced a very difficult schedule up until three weeks ago.
I think the Jets have earned better than this. The defense has looked inspired in recent weeks, anointing some new starters with the trades of Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, and after being benched, linebacker Quincy Williams looked like his dominant self in a Week 10 win.
With that all said, we know this is going to come down to the run game. The Jets run the sixth-most in the league while allowing the fourth-most runs on average, and while Drake Maye has shone, the Patriots are still ranked just one spot behind the Jets in run-play rate.
The Jets and Pats have each done a solid job against the run, and that should be enough to call this line a bit steep. New England's backfield is severely banged up with injuries to three of its four backs, and the Jets' defense is surging even if it came against two poor opponents. This one should be close.
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Passes
Panthers vs Falcons
| Panthers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +160 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -190 |
I have to say, with how excited I was about the Falcons entering the season, I'm pretty disheartened to see them sitting two games back of the Panthers in the NFC South. That can change here in a pivotal game for Atlanta, which can still catch the 6-3 Buccaneers atop the division, but can they do it in the wake of so many injuries?
This game's pretty impossible to bet until we know who's playing. Drake London's injury is certainly a big one, but Atlanta is also facing injuries to starting guards Matthew Bergeron and Chris Lindstrom — both of whom did not practice on Wednesday. Considering London didn't practice, nor did a handful of starters on defense, an already-battered team mentally may be up against it yet again.
If healthy, I think I do like the Falcons here. They've covered in two straight games, against quality opponents in the Colts and Patriots, and the offense has been right there as well. Assuming the line is at least intact, Atlanta has an excellent matchup with a Panthers run defense that's been falling fast, and on the other side of the coin, Carolina may be without Rico Dowdle here.
I like the Falcons here if Dowdle sits, or if we get word that their two starters on the line will be active.
Verdict: Pass (for now)
Ravens vs Browns
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 39 -110o / -110u | -425 |
| Browns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 39 -110o / -110u | +325 |
Lamar Jackson is apparently dealing with a sore knee that won't cost him another game, but could impact his performance on Sunday. The Browns are an all-or-nothing team that's going to live and die by the pass rush, and that means Jackson's going to need to stay active with his legs to win this game.
While you'd assume that's no problem for the former MVP, I don't know if I'm confident enough to lay over a touchdown with how crucial running the ball will be for Jackson.
I certainly don't want to take points with Dillon Gabriel after an absolutely atrocious loss to the Jets, where he was sacked six times. The Ravens' defense is also quietly looking like its usual self again. Maybe watch a bit of the first quarter and lay it down with Baltimore live; if Jackson looks healthy, I'd lay as many as 12.5 in-game.
Verdict: Pass
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Leans
Commanders vs Dolphins
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
The Commanders are in a world of trouble. Jayden Daniels is out, Terry McLaurin and three other wideouts will join him, and a defense that has struggled all year long continues to add names to the injury report.
As big a Marcus Mariota guy as I may be, this looks difficult. The veteran will likely be looking to Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz as his top targets, and he'll be working with a backfield that's given Washington significantly less without Daniels under center.
The Dolphins can shut down the run, and that's exactly how they were able to upset Buffalo last week. They can surely do it again with the benefit of Daniels' injury, and the fact that Washington runs the ball the sixth-most on average.
Can they score? Well, they've been the sixth-worst offense in the league, but Washington's secondary has been terrible. The Dolphins are always vulnerable through the air, but it wouldn't seem like this game will feature much passing. Miami probably covers.
Verdict: Lean Dolphins -2.5
Packers vs Giants
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -370 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +290 |
We get to see Jameis Winston suit up yet again thanks to an injury to Jaxson Dart, but while he offers plenty in terms of entertainment value I'm not sure he offers the Giants any more hope here. He'll still have to deal with a beaten-down offense that's lost Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo, with the possibility that Darius Slayton misses the game too after sitting out practice.
Green Bay has been one of the stingiest teams in football against the deep ball, allowing just nine completions on 34 passes of 20 or more yards, and that should take much of the wind out of Winston's sails here as a gunslinger.
I guess it's good that the Packers are ranked fourth-worst in takeaways, but it really shouldn't matter much with the secondary cooking and the Giants' ground game falling fast. I'll admit I'm a little scared of the newly-fired coach narrative here, so let me leave this as a lean.
Verdict: Lean Packers -7
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NFL Week 11 Picks
Buccaneers vs Bills
| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -270 |
What's Buffalo's consolation for getting whooped last week at the hands of the Dolphins' top-10 run defense? Facing an even stronger Buccaneers run defense.
We saw last week just what happens when the Bills — who run the ball more than anyone — are suddenly no longer able to do so effectively. Tampa Bay ranks fourth in DVOA on the ground, while it's been left vulnerable to the pass it's at least brought pressure at a top-five clip, ranking just three spots behind Buffalo.
That means pass blocking and run stopping will be the meat and potatoes of this game, and you do at least have to give Buffalo credit for delivering Josh Allen the top clean-pocket rate in football, something Tampa's done a poor job of in front of Baker Mayfield.
Joey Bosa and Shaq Thompson were able to get in a limited practice this week, meaning the pass rush should still be there for the Bills, and I think that should help further stymie a Bucs offense which has been slowing down. I don't see Buffalo running it up against this solid run defense, however, and there's no guarantee Allen has a bounce-back game here against this pass rush.
Verdict: Bet Under 47.5
Texans vs Titans
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 37 -110o / -110u | -280 |
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 37 -110o / -110u | +230 |
Davis Mills looks like the starter under center for Houston once more with C.J. Stroud still in concussion protocol, making us really think about this ugly-looking showdown.
The Texans did blow the doors off the Jaguars last week, racking up an impressive 5.9 yards per carry against a sound run defense, and Mills wasn't terrible in throwing for 292 yards. He completed 27-of-45 with just one interception and it would appear he'll have the entire offense at his disposal yet again with no significant injury developments.
The thing is, I don't want to overreact to one game. I do not think the Jaguars are very good, so there's no loud statement that needs to be made about Houston. I don't particularly trust the Titans, however, and after Trevor Lawrence was sacked five times by the Texans last week there may be no hope for Cam Ward.
A solid Jaguars rushing offense just fell victim to Houston's front seven, and compared to the Titans they might as well be in another stratosphere. There's not enough here to move me off the favorites.
Verdict: Bet Texans -6
Bears vs Vikings
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
J.J. McCarthy has not been good this season. He's played just four games, sure, but of the 63 quarterbacks to throw a pass this season he ranks 51st in EPA per dropback, just below Cam Ward and Dillon Gabriel.
That, along with a period of ineffectiveness out of Carson Wentz, has doomed this Minnesota team. It's been able to run the ball well in a vacuum, but the shortcomings of the passing game has led to some slow days offensively.
Now, Chicago's defense has been incapable of stopping any offense at all, ranking bottom five in yards allowed per pass and per rush.
You have to feel good about Minnesota's chances as a result, especially after its defensive showing against Baltimore and Detroit. I don't mean to be quip, but if you give this slumping offense even an inch of assistance, the game could get out of hand.
Bengals vs Steelers
| Bengals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | +205 |
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | -250 |
Ah, yes. One of the blitz-happiest defenses in the league heading up against the third-worst line in pass protection, which has allowed just a 74.5% clean pocket rate. Welcome to the party! Is Joe Flacco invited? I'm not really sure! I tried to tell him but he pretended he was getting a call on his phone.
The fact of the matter is that Flacco is minced meat against this pass rush, particularly given his insane 38.7 passer rating under pressure this year. The defense has been the worst in football and Pittsburgh's been capable of scoring on it before, putting up 31 points in a Week 7 loss.
Now, it was pretty remarkable that Flacco and this offense had a performance like that one, but there were a few deep passes and one big run from Chase Brown that really tipped the scales. The Steelers are still ranked seventh in deep ball completions and hold a near-top 10 rank in DVOA against the pass, so I don't think history will repeat itself here.
The bigger obstacle could easily be on defense for Cincinnati, given the Steelers will go from one of the best passing defenses in the league to the worst by DVOA. I expect big things from Pittsburgh and can't turn down the discount on a team which should torment Flacco in the backfield.
Verdict: Bet Steelers -5.5
Chargers vs Jaguars
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
| Jaguars Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
I said this in another blurb in as many words, but the Jaguars lost to the Texans because they stink. They did not lose on a fluke, or on account of a big day out of Houston's offense. This team is one-dimensional, aiming to win the war of attrition on the ground and offering no further ideas of how to win a football game.
The Chargers, unfortunately, are one of the worst against the run, allowing 4.9 yards per carry, but they've also rarely been run on given the offense has flipped the game script. There should be nothing in Justin Herbert's way here; the Jaguars own the worst sack rate in the NFL and while they've limited completions they've been the third-worst against the deep ball.
I expect the ball to move here for the road team. I do not expect Trevor Lawrence, stuck in another mediocre season, to do the same against a sound secondary. In fact, the Chargers' lack of a pass rush could actually influence Lawrence to throw more, which would be counter-intuitive to success on offense. Can you tell I don't like this team?
Verdict: Bet Chargers -3
Seahawks vs Rams
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
Finally, a good game. The two best passing offenses we have in the NFL going at it, each looking to lock up a fifth straight win.
The even-better news is that it looks as if both teams should be almost fully healthy on offense, with the exception of Davante Adams who's yet to practice this week. Sean McVay has said he's not concerned about his status, so we can probably assume he'll be in there to help the 12th-best red zone offense and fifth-best in scoring.
The Seahawks have been virtually untouchable against the run, ranking third in yards allowed per carry and third-lowest with a 37% run-play rate against them. They're giving up oodles of passing attempts though, and while they've allowed just 6.4 yards per attempt the Seahawks sit a bit lower in terms of completion percentage.
That's all to say, this is a tall task for Seattle's defense, as good as it is. It's already lost safety Julian Love to injured reserve with impact linebacker Ernest Jones banged up as well, and even last week Jacoby Brissett was able to muster up 258 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions, a day that could have looked better had it not been for five sacks.
The Rams have actually been the ones to rank higher in clean pocket rate offensively, so I think when you put it all together they should be able to navigate Seattle's defense. On the flip side, the Rams' pass rush has lacked gumption and the secondary has allowed the 12th-highest completion percentage on deep balls, a combination that's troubling given Seattle's 20 completions on deep balls, which ranks second in the NFL.
The total is high, but I am seeing reasons to believe in both offenses. I'd probably take the Rams in a pick 'em.
Verdict: Bet Over 48.5
49ers vs Cardinals
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
I don't even want to look into the matchup, I just want to blind bet the Cardinals here. The 49ers continue to be one of the luckiest teams in the league — something that was exposed by the LA Rams last week in a blowout win.
Now, it appears Kyle Shanahan will turn back to Brock Purdy, who's ramping up in practice as he works his way back from a second injury this season. He may also get Ricky Pearsall back, too. I don't really care! The Cardinals' secondary has been surprisingly potent this season, and it's hard to really let a poor game against the league's best passing offense alter our line of thinking.
They rank ninth in DVOA against the pass and eighth in yards per attempt, and San Francisco has had no idea week to week who will be playing quarterback or receiver. The Niners are still banged up all over the field and sit low on the totem pole defensively by the metrics, opening the door for a surprisingly-pungent offense led by Brissett to do some damage.
He looked pretty good last week against a much better defense, and he shouldn't be sacked five times like he was in that game with San Francisco carrying the second-worst sack rate in football. I actually believe in him so much that I'm not very scared off injuries to Marvin Harrison, Jr. and Trey Benson. He can overcome. He will.
Verdict: Bet Cardinals +3
Chiefs vs Broncos
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -205 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +170 |
Kansas City is just 8-10 against the spread following the bye under Andy Reid, and in the last five years it's an even-worse 2-6 ATS. I'm not really ready to hit the panic button on that note alone, though; the Chiefs are just 53-54-2 ATS in all games since 2020 and have frequently been comically-large favorites for many of those years.
This is a different season, and the Chiefs have now covered in five of their last seven. They were stopped by the Bills a couple of weeks ago prior to the bye, but it was really through no fault of their own. Patrick Mahomes wasn't fantastic, but still managed 250 yards on just 15 completions while Kareem Hunt looked comfortable with 4.5 yards per carry as the new lead back.
It just so happened that Josh Allen went 23-of-26 for 273 yards, and his offense could not be stopped in the red zone.
This is still a Kansas City defense which sits just outside the top 10 in DVOA, and this is a Broncos offense which is just 17th in points per game. The Chiefs should be able to snatch this one away as the far better offense, even with an elite Denver defense sitting on the other side of the field.
Some key Broncos like Pat Surtain II and J.K. Dobbins are in danger of missing this game, and it would just make life that much more difficult on a defense which hasn't faced an offense this good in over a month — if you even want to put the Eagles up there as one of the better offenses in football.
Verdict: Bet Chiefs -3.5
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Sunday Night Football
Lions vs Eagles
| Lions Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
The key to handicapping this game could come in the injury report, where the Lions are listing just about every one of their players. Offensively, Penei Sewell is questionable at tackle — arguably the most impactful player we'll mention — while Aidan Hutchinson's status is very much up in the air as well.
The team's already down Marcus Davenport and D.J. Reed on defense — both of whom are on injured reserve — and it looks like starting corners Amik Robinson and Terrion Arnold will join them.
So, before we can even focus on the Sewell news, we are looking at a defense that's going to be down three starting corners and could be missing their best edge rusher as well for a defensive line that's already been worn thin by injury.
Does that make you want to bet on the Eagles here? I mean, it's no secret this offense has been worse, but they're still taking care of the football — even if they can't take care of Jalen Hurts. Philly's doing the little things right in that regard, ranking first in giveaways per game, and the offense has actually looked pretty good when it's decided to throw the ball — something it rarely does.
If the Eagles do throw — and that's a big if for a team that's thrown at the third-lowest clip this season — they should find plenty of success given the injuries reported above. They likely won't find any success on the ground against this run defense, but they have not run well this season.
So, what does that mean? I think it means we bet on the Eagles, holding our nose as we do so. The Lions are excellent against man coverage which could be something of an issue given Philly's man-heavy scheme, but the Lions really aren't going to hurt you much through the air given their tendency to throw short.
Mix in the Sewell injury against an Eagles pass rush which is right around the top 10 and I think you have your answer here.
Verdict: Lean Eagles -2.5
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Monday Night Football
Cowboys vs Raiders
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 50 -110o / -110u | -180 |
| Raiders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 50 -110o / -110u | +155 |
For how good that Sunday Night Football matchup is looking, Monday looks like MAACtion. The Cowboys' offense has slipped to 10th in DVOA as the defense continues to challenge for the title of worst in football, and Las Vegas now sits 11th defensively as it slips to 30th on offense.
You'd think that means a lower-scoring game, but what do I know? Oddsmakers have set the total for this game at over 50 points, though it's more to protect against a Dallas team which has cashed the over in five of its last six games despite the total being over 51 points in Week 8 and Week 9.
The better move here would seem to be with the Raiders, who have the keys to slow down Dallas' pass-heavy attack. They've allowed just 6.9 yards per attempt — the 11th-best mark in football — and they've now covered in two straight as they've done battle with some competent offenses in recent weeks.
Geno Smith did pick up a minor injury last week but made it to practice on Thursday, so I'm not very concerned about this Raiders offense. The Cowboys have not only been the second-worst against the pass, and vulnerable to the deep ball, but rank just 26th in interception rate which is a big feather in Smith's cap.
The gunslinger should be let loose here at home, and the defense should continue to play inspired as they have done in the last two weeks. Are you really that scared of the Cowboys' offense? Come on, it's a primetime home underdog, baby.
Verdict: Bet Raiders +3.5
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